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Upturn AI Summary - About
Ecopetrol SA ADR(EC)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for EC
10/23/2026: EC (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Ecopetrol is the primary integrated oil and gas company in Colombia, operating across the exploration, refining, and transportation sectors. The stock offers a value-oriented play for investors, bolstered by a history of consistent dividend payouts. Its core strength lies in its vertical integration and essential role in the domestic energy infrastructure, while the recent acquisition of ISA provides a strategic hedge toward electricity transmission. Primary risks involve oil price volatility, exposure to Colombian regulatory and political shifts, and the long-term challenge of the energy transition. The company is best suited for income-focused investors who can tolerate the inherent volatility of a state-linked commodity producer.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | Ecopetrol is a mature, cyclical commodity producer rather than a high-growth tech or emerging industry firm. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is highly dependent on oil price spikes, making it a conditional play on macro energy trends. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company is often traded at low valuation multiples, making it attractive for value-oriented portfolios. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Ecopetrol has a track record of offering substantial dividend yields, appealing to income-focused investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The stock carries high volatility linked to oil prices and geopolitical risks in its primary region of operation. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenue and profitability are directly tied to the highly cyclical global price of crude oil. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing can be erratic due to regional political sentiment rather than purely fundamental metrics. |
| Competition risk (Geopolitical/Regulatory) | High | Changes in Colombian government policy pose a unique risk not shared by global competitors. |
| Business quality | Medium / high | The company maintains robust, integrated infrastructure assets that anchor its long-term viability. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividends are subject to board decisions and the company's financial performance during down-cycles. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully transitioning to renewable energy while maintaining oil output requires complex operational management. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -7.03% | Avg. Invested days 38 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 36.59B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 9.67 | 1Y Target Price 14.48 |
Price to earnings Ratio 9.67 | 1Y Target Price 14.48 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.5M shares | Beta -0.04 | 52 Weeks Range 8.67 - 18.38 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 8.67 - 18.38 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.84 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production | Extraction and sale of crude oil and natural gas. | This is the core business; profits fluctuate based on global oil market prices. |
| Refining and Midstream | Refining oil into fuels and operating transport pipelines. | Provides stable, volume-based revenue streams through domestic processing and transport. |
| Geography: Colombia | Primary operations and consumer market. | The company's health is closely tied to the macroeconomic stability of Colombia. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 9.67 | Forward PE 5.67 | Enterprise Value 65.36B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.57 |
Enterprise Value 65.36B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.57 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.37 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 3.48 | Shares Outstanding 2.06B | Shares Floating 473.17M |
Shares Outstanding 2.06B | Shares Floating 473.17M | ||
Percent Insiders - | Percent Institutions 1.45 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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