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Upturn AI Summary - About
Greenbrier Companies Inc(GBX)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GBX
10/09/2026: GBX (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
The Greenbrier Companies is a prominent designer and manufacturer of freight railcars, offering a integrated suite of services that includes leasing and fleet management. Its main strengths lie in its deep manufacturing expertise and a diverse product range that serves essential industrial transport needs. The company's primary growth story centers on replacing aging rail fleets and expanding its higher-margin service business. Key risks include exposure to cyclical economic shifts, raw material price volatility, and intense competitive pressures in the manufacturing space. The stock may best suit value-oriented investors who can tolerate cyclical volatility, and market participants should monitor infrastructure trends and rail freight volumes for future developments.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is tied to cyclical rail freight demand rather than consistent high-growth technology trajectories. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock is subject to cyclical swings rather than consistent upward momentum. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at multiples reflective of its cyclical manufacturing base, offering potential value during downturns. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Greenbrier has a history of paying dividends, providing income for patient shareholders. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The high cyclicality of the freight industry leads to volatility in share price. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Share price is highly sensitive to economic cycles and freight demand. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Valuations fluctuate significantly based on order book visibility. |
| Competition risk (Railcar manufacturing) | Medium / high | Intense competition from peers can compress margins on new railcar orders. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business model relies on heavy assets and cyclical capital goods demand. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are dependent on cash flows which can be impacted by industry downturns. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Managing supply chain and manufacturing costs is critical to profitability. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 6.03% | Avg. Invested days 44 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.19B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 11.37 | 1Y Target Price 45.33 |
Price to earnings Ratio 11.37 | 1Y Target Price 45.33 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 411.9K shares | Beta 1.44 | 52 Weeks Range 37.19 - 58.37 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 37.19 - 58.37 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 3.37% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.38 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Production of new freight railcars for various commodities. | This is the primary revenue driver, but it is sensitive to economic cycles. |
| Leasing & Services | Management of railcar fleets and maintenance services. | Provides steadier, more predictable revenue compared to manufacturing. |
| Geography | Operations in North America, Europe, and South America. | Global diversification helps mitigate local economic downturns. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 11.37 | Forward PE 11.06 | Enterprise Value 2.94B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.45 |
Enterprise Value 2.94B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.45 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.12 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 9.01 | Shares Outstanding 30.94M | Shares Floating 30.20M |
Shares Outstanding 30.94M | Shares Floating 30.20M | ||
Percent Insiders 8.45 | Percent Institutions 107.75 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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