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Upturn AI Summary - About
Greenbrier Companies Inc(GBX)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GBX
10/23/2026: GBX (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Greenbrier Companies Inc is a major participant in the North American railcar manufacturing and leasing sector. The company's primary strength lies in its integrated business model, which combines the production of diverse freight railcars with a reliable aftermarket services and leasing division. Its main investment opportunity centers on the ongoing modernization of rail fleets and the growth of recurring service revenue. However, the stock is subject to significant risks including industrial cyclicality, raw material price volatility, and intense competitive pressures. The stock may be a strong fit for value and dividend-focused investors, provided they monitor North American freight volume trends and manufacturing backlog updates.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers growth through cycle-driven demand but is limited by the mature nature of the rail industry. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on positive industry upturns and favorable rail volume data. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at valuations reflective of its tangible asset base and cyclical earnings history. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company provides a consistent dividend yield, making it attractive for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | The business is exposed to cyclical industrial risks and price volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The stock price is sensitive to macroeconomic cycles and industrial freight demand. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Valuations fluctuate based on expectations of the railcar replacement cycle. |
| Competition risk (Railcar Manufacturing) | Medium / high | Intense competition from domestic peers impacts pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium | Strong operational footprint is balanced by exposure to cyclical capital expenditures. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividend sustainability relies on the company's ability to navigate cyclical cash flows. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Managing supply chains and manufacturing efficiency is critical to maintaining margins. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 6.03% | Avg. Invested days 44 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.18B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 11.27 | 1Y Target Price 44 |
Price to earnings Ratio 11.27 | 1Y Target Price 44 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 401.3K shares | Beta 1.44 | 52 Weeks Range 37.02 - 58.37 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 37.02 - 58.37 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 3.35% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.38 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Building and selling new railcars for various industrial and transport uses. | This is the core business that generates revenue from building and delivering new rail equipment. |
| Leasing & Services | Long-term leasing, fleet maintenance, and refurbishment of existing railcars. | This provides recurring, more stable income compared to the manufacturing segment. |
| Geography (North America) | Primary revenue concentration in US, Canada, and Mexico. | The company is heavily tied to the health of the North American economy and freight volumes. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-26 | When After Market | Estimate 0.89 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 4.07% | Operating Margin (TTM) 4.49% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 2.22% | Return on Equity (TTM) 6.34% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 11.27 | Forward PE 11.06 | Enterprise Value 2.94B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.45 |
Enterprise Value 2.94B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.45 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.12 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 9.01 | Shares Outstanding 30.94M | Shares Floating 30.23M |
Shares Outstanding 30.94M | Shares Floating 30.23M | ||
Percent Insiders 8.37 | Percent Institutions 107.92 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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