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Upturn AI Summary - About
Great Elm Group Inc(GEG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GEG
10/20/2026: GEG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Great Elm Group Inc is a financial services holding company focused on managing credit-oriented assets, primarily through its relationship with its affiliated business development company. Its core strength lies in its specialized management platform, which provides recurring fee income, complemented by its own capital investments. The primary investment story revolves around scaling its assets under management and optimizing its fee structure. However, the company faces significant risks from intense competition in the private credit market and inherent earnings volatility. It is best suited for speculative investors who understand the complexities of BDC management, while market participants should monitor AUM growth and credit portfolio performance.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company's growth depends on successfully scaling its AUM, which is uncertain. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Momentum is limited by low trading volume and sensitivity to niche credit market trends. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation relative to assets can be attractive, but business complexity makes valuation difficult. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not currently prioritize regular common dividends. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High sensitivity to credit market cycles and operational volatility makes it unsuitable. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Thin trading volume and small market cap lead to significant price swings. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Determining fair value for proprietary investments in a BDC structure is inherently complex. |
| Competition risk (Credit/BDC competition) | High | The firm competes against massive, established players in the private credit market. |
| Business quality | Medium | The reliance on external management fees for a small platform creates earnings sensitivity. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The firm does not provide reliable income through dividends. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Success depends on the consistent performance of the managed BDC assets. |
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -12.11% | Avg. Invested days 42 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/20/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 63.93M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 18.5 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 18.5 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 10.4K shares | Beta 0.56 | 52 Weeks Range 1.80 - 2.83 | Updated Date 10/20/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 1.80 - 2.83 | Updated Date 10/20/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -1.17 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Investment Management Fees | Management and incentive fees earned from GECC and other advised portfolios. | The company earns money by managing money for others, similar to a boutique asset manager. |
| Proprietary Capital | Investment income and capital gains from the company's own balance sheet assets. | The company also acts as an investor, putting its own money into various credit opportunities. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 42.73 | Enterprise Value 36.92M | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.3 |
Enterprise Value 36.92M | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.3 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.33 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 0.97 | Shares Outstanding 29.73M | Shares Floating 10.13M |
Shares Outstanding 29.73M | Shares Floating 10.13M | ||
Percent Insiders 32.65 | Percent Institutions 40.55 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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