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Upturn AI Summary - About
Gevo Inc(GEVO)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GEVO
10/23/2026: GEVO (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Gevo Inc is an emerging renewable energy company focused on producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using proprietary technology. Its primary strength lies in its strategic focus on the aviation industry's urgent need for decarbonization, supported by several large-scale offtake agreements. The main investment opportunity hinges on the successful construction and operational scaling of its Net-Zero production facilities. However, the company faces significant execution, capital-intensive construction, and competitive risks from established energy incumbents. Given its lack of earnings and reliance on project financing, Gevo is best suited for growth-oriented investors with a high risk tolerance who are monitoring project milestones and government fuel policy developments.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers significant growth potential tied to the energy transition, but carries high execution risk. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock is highly sensitive to news regarding government policy and major commercial partnerships, which often triggers rapid price action. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | Gevo lacks current earnings or traditional value metrics, making it unsuitable for standard value strategies. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay dividends and requires all available capital for operational development. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High volatility and the speculative nature of early-stage fuel production make this unsuitable for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock frequently experiences large price swings based on sentiment toward green energy and capital raising announcements. |
| Valuation risk | High | Current valuations are speculative and largely disconnected from near-term cash flow generation. |
| Competition risk (Major Energy/Industrial firms) | High | Large energy incumbents have significantly more resources to scale similar SAF technologies. |
| Business quality | Medium | The underlying proprietary technology is innovative, but has yet to be proven at a long-term profitable commercial scale. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should expect no income and high potential for continued share dilution. |
| Execution risk | High | Successfully building and operating industrial-scale fuel plants involves complex construction and scaling challenges. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 2.23% | Avg. Invested days 19 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 286.80M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 5.17 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 5.17 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.3M shares | Beta 1.14 | 52 Weeks Range 1.09 - 2.97 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 1.09 - 2.97 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.91 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Renewable Fuels | Sale of SAF and renewable diesel through long-term offtake agreements. | Gevo plans to make money by selling low-carbon fuel to airlines once its factories are built. |
| Technology Licensing | Licensing proprietary alcohol-to-jet and chemical technologies to third parties. | The company may earn fees by letting other companies use its fuel-making technology. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 500.72M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.62 |
Enterprise Value 500.72M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.62 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.81 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 28.26 | Shares Outstanding 247.24M | Shares Floating 227.57M |
Shares Outstanding 247.24M | Shares Floating 227.57M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.5 | Percent Institutions 37.99 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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