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Upturn AI Summary - About
Gevo Inc(GEVO)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GEVO
10/09/2026: GEVO (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Gevo Inc is an early-stage company focused on producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) through its proprietary alcohol-to-jet technology. Its main business strength lies in its secured long-term off-take agreements with major airlines, which provide a clear commercial pathway. The company's primary opportunity is the global transition toward net-zero aviation, creating significant demand for low-carbon fuels. However, it faces substantial risks, including the need for massive capital investment, potential for construction delays, and intense competition from larger energy players. Given its lack of consistent profitability and capital-intensive nature, it is a speculative stock that likely suits growth-oriented investors who can tolerate high volatility and monitor project execution closely.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Gevo offers exposure to the high-growth SAF market but faces significant execution risks regarding full-scale commercialization. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often reacts strongly to strategic partnerships and regulatory news, making it suitable when positive momentum is present. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | Gevo lacks the earnings and cash flow stability required for traditional value-based investment strategies. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company is in an early-stage development phase and does not pay dividends. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High volatility and operational uncertainty make this stock unsuitable for conservative, low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock's high beta means it experiences significant price swings based on market sentiment and sector news. |
| Valuation risk | High | Valuations are often speculative, dependent on the successful future completion of large-scale production facilities. |
| Competition risk (SAF and biofuels) | High | Gevo faces competition from much larger entities with established production infrastructure and deeper capital resources. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the technology is proprietary, the business model is still proving its ability to scale and generate consistent profit. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company does not provide income through dividends. |
| Execution risk | High | The primary risk remains the successful construction and operational ramp-up of the Net-Zero 1 project. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 2.23% | Avg. Invested days 19 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 326.35M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 5.17 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 5.17 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.7M shares | Beta 1.14 | 52 Weeks Range 1.25 - 2.97 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 1.25 - 2.97 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.89 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel Production and Licensing | Sale of sustainable aviation fuel, renewable isobutanol, and related technology licensing fees. | Gevo makes money by selling advanced renewable fuels and licensing its technology to others in the energy sector. |
| Geographic Exposure | Primarily North American operations with a focus on US-based production projects. | The company's primary focus and regulatory benefits are centered on the United States market. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 472.28M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.84 |
Enterprise Value 472.28M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.84 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.66 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 28.26 | Shares Outstanding 247.24M | Shares Floating 227.57M |
Shares Outstanding 247.24M | Shares Floating 227.57M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.5 | Percent Institutions 38.67 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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