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Upturn AI Summary - About
Main Street Capital Corporation(MAIN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MAIN
10/28/2026: MAIN (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Main Street Capital Corporation is an internally managed Business Development Company that provides debt and equity capital to smaller U.S. businesses. The company is known for its efficient internal management structure, which has historically allowed it to operate with lower costs than peers. Its primary investment story centers on consistent income generation through monthly dividends and periodic special distributions. Key risks include exposure to economic downturns which could elevate loan default rates, and the challenges of competing in the increasingly crowded private credit market. The stock is best suited for income-focused investors who should monitor the company's net asset value and portfolio credit quality.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | While the company grows its NAV, its primary appeal is income generation rather than aggressive capital appreciation. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock tends to be relatively stable, often lacking the high-volatility upside favored by momentum traders. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company is often evaluated based on its NAV and the sustainability of its dividend yield, fitting value criteria. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | It is a primary choice for income-focused investors due to its history of stable monthly dividends and special distributions. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While providing consistent income, it remains subject to market volatility and the credit risk inherent in private lending. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock price can fluctuate based on broader market conditions and interest rate changes. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Trading at a significant premium to NAV can increase the risk of a price correction. |
| Competition risk (Private Credit) | Medium / high | Increased competition for deals can compress yields and pressure underwriting standards. |
| Business quality | Strong | The internal management structure provides high alignment and efficient operations. |
| Dividend income | Strong | The company has a long history of maintaining and growing dividend payouts. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully managing a large, diverse portfolio of private companies requires consistent operational excellence. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 88.92% | Avg. Invested days 94 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  5.0 | Stock Returns Performance  4.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 5.11B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 10.86 | 1Y Target Price 59.86 |
Price to earnings Ratio 10.86 | 1Y Target Price 59.86 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 475.5K shares | Beta 0.75 | 52 Weeks Range 47.23 - 61.47 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 47.23 - 61.47 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 5.72% | Basic EPS (TTM) 5.03 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Interest Income | Interest earned from senior secured and other debt investments provided to lower middle market and middle market companies. | This is the primary way the company earns money, acting like a bank for private businesses. |
| Dividend and Fee Income | Dividends from equity investments in portfolio companies and various management or structuring fees. | Supplemental income derived from ownership stakes and transaction services. |
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-05 | When After Market | Estimate 0.91 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 78.49% | Operating Margin (TTM) 87.21% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 5.57% | Return on Equity (TTM) 14.92% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 10.86 | Forward PE 14.84 | Enterprise Value 7.59B | Price to Sales(TTM) 8.88 |
Enterprise Value 7.59B | Price to Sales(TTM) 8.88 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 13.58 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 15.54 | Shares Outstanding 93.51M | Shares Floating 89.81M |
Shares Outstanding 93.51M | Shares Floating 89.81M | ||
Percent Insiders 3.77 | Percent Institutions 25.93 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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