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Upturn AI Summary - About
MBIA Inc(MBI)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MBI
11/11/2026: MBI (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
MBIA Inc is a financial services company currently functioning as a legacy runoff vehicle for municipal bond insurance. Its primary strength lies in its experienced management of a complex, long-term portfolio of insured obligations. The main investment story revolves around the potential for capital recovery and return to shareholders as it winds down its remaining liabilities. However, the company faces significant risks, including credit defaults within its insured portfolio and ongoing legal challenges. This stock is generally suited for speculative investors interested in capital management outcomes rather than operational growth, and developments regarding portfolio de-risking and legal settlements should be monitored closely.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company is in a secular decline/runoff phase and does not offer traditional growth prospects. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum depends on specific news regarding legal wins or capital releases, which can cause sudden, non-trend-based price spikes. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Value investors may look at book value per share, but the complexity of valuing runoff insurance liabilities makes it a high-risk proposition. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend and focuses on capital preservation. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The high uncertainty surrounding legacy insurance liabilities and volatility makes it unsuitable for low-risk investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is highly sensitive to credit events and legal outcomes. |
| Valuation risk | High | Estimating the future cash flows of a runoff insurance book is inherently difficult. |
| Competition risk (Monoline Insurers) | Medium | The lack of new business makes the company unable to compete effectively with active insurers. |
| Business quality | Low | The company is a runoff entity with limited operational growth potential. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | There is no dividend income to provide a floor for the stock. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Successful execution depends on favorable outcomes in complex litigation and credit recoveries. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 167.13% | Avg. Invested days 32 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/11/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Sector & Industry Intelligence
Sector snapshot as of 2026-11-10
Sector
Financial Services
- Signal
- Constructive
- Sentiment
- Bullish
- Market state
- Bullish
- Momentum
- BUY Breadth Improving
- BUY participation
- 47.5%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 56 / 118
- 22-session BUY-count change
- +41
More qualifying stocks are receiving or maintaining BUY advisories, indicating improving market participation.
Industry
Industry classification is unavailable for this snapshot.
The sector signal does not change this stock’s BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory.
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 240.81M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 6 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 6 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 318.3K shares | Beta 1.34 | 52 Weeks Range 4.19 - 7.85 | Updated Date 11/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 4.19 - 7.85 | Updated Date 11/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -3.18 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Guarantees | Premiums from previously written municipal bond insurance policies. | The company earns revenue from long-term contracts it signed years ago. |
| Investment Portfolio | Interest and investment income generated from the assets held to cover future claims. | Income is largely tied to how well the company's reserve assets perform. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 86.96 | Enterprise Value 3.61B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.38 |
Enterprise Value 3.61B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.38 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 34.39 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 51.02M | Shares Floating 41.87M |
Shares Outstanding 51.02M | Shares Floating 41.87M | ||
Percent Insiders 17.94 | Percent Institutions 53.44 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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