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Upturn AI Summary - About
Assured Guaranty Ltd(AGO)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AGO
09/25/2026: AGO (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Assured Guaranty Ltd is a specialized insurance company that provides credit enhancement, primarily through bond insurance, for public and infrastructure projects. The firm benefits from a strong capital position, high-quality credit ratings, and a dominant market share in the financial guaranty space. Its primary investment story revolves around disciplined underwriting and consistent capital returns through share buybacks. Risks include concentration in the municipal bond sector and potential regulatory shifts that could alter market dynamics. This stock is generally best suited for value and dividend-focused investors, with ongoing attention required regarding interest rate trends and developments in the broader municipal bond market.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company is a mature financial services provider with limited high-growth prospects. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum investment depends on short-term market cycles affecting bond spreads and insurance demand. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at a valuation that reflects the underlying book value and long-term earnings potential. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company provides a reliable dividend and has a strong history of returning capital via buybacks. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the insurance business is stable, the stock price can be sensitive to interest rate volatility and market sentiment. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock price is susceptible to shifts in interest rates and broader financial market sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The company's valuation is closely tied to its book value, providing some floor to the stock price. |
| Competition risk (bond insurance) | Low | The bond insurance market has high barriers to entry, resulting in limited competition. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company maintains a high-quality credit profile and a robust capital position. |
| Dividend income | Medium | The dividend is sustainable, but the company prioritizes buybacks over significant yield increases. |
| Execution risk | Low | The business model is well-understood and managed through conservative underwriting standards. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -3.17% | Avg. Invested days 44 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/25/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 3.06B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 9.24 | 1Y Target Price 91 |
Price to earnings Ratio 9.24 | 1Y Target Price 91 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 474.3K shares | Beta 0.72 | 52 Weeks Range 68.03 - 91.07 | Updated Date 09/27/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 68.03 - 91.07 | Updated Date 09/27/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.11% | Basic EPS (TTM) 7.52 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Guaranty | Premiums charged for insuring municipal and structured finance bonds. | The company earns money by guaranteeing the safety of bonds for a fee. |
| Investment Income | Interest and dividends from the company's large portfolio of invested assets. | A major portion of earnings comes from the interest earned on the company's own capital. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 9.24 | Forward PE 11.11 | Enterprise Value 4.43B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.76 |
Enterprise Value 4.43B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.76 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 5.1 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 43.98M | Shares Floating 41.33M |
Shares Outstanding 43.98M | Shares Floating 41.33M | ||
Percent Insiders 6.85 | Percent Institutions 96.47 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About Assured Guaranty Ltd
Exchange NYSE | Headquarters - | ||
IPO Launch date 2004-04-23 | Deputy Chairman, President & CEO Mr. Dominic John Frederico CPA | ||
Sector Financial Services | Industry Insurance - Specialty | Full time employees 367 | Website https://assuredguaranty.com |
Full time employees 367 | Website https://assuredguaranty.com | ||
Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
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