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Upturn AI SWOT - About
AGO 
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
07/02/2025: AGO (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Upturn Star Rating
Below Average Performance
These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, often underperform the market, warranting careful consideration before investing.
Number of Analysts
4 Analysts rated it
Very few follow this stock; limited insights, higher-risk early investing.
1 Year Target Price $106.5
1 Year Target Price $106.5
| 1 | Strong Buy |
| 2 | Buy |
| 1 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 31.92% | Avg. Invested days 57 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 07/02/2025 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.27B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 10.34 | 1Y Target Price 106.5 |
Price to earnings Ratio 10.34 | 1Y Target Price 106.5 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4 | Beta 0.82 | 52 Weeks Range 71.47 - 95.74 | Updated Date 07/1/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 71.47 - 95.74 | Updated Date 07/1/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.56% | Basic EPS (TTM) 8.38 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 50.11% | Operating Margin (TTM) 49.14% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 2.54% | Return on Equity (TTM) 8.18% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 10.34 | Forward PE 13.11 | Enterprise Value 5790900000 | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.83 |
Enterprise Value 5790900000 | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.83 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 6.34 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 49000000 | Shares Floating 46320288 |
Shares Outstanding 49000000 | Shares Floating 46320288 | ||
Percent Insiders 6.8 | Percent Institutions 96.73 |
Analyst Ratings
Rating 1 | Target Price 106.5 | Buy 2 | Strong Buy 1 |
Buy 2 | Strong Buy 1 | ||
Hold 1 | Sell - | Strong Sell - | |
Strong Sell - |
Upturn AI SWOT
Assured Guaranty Ltd
Company Overview
History and Background
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) was founded in 2003. It evolved from enhancing municipal bonds to specializing in financial guaranty insurance for various sectors, navigating the 2008 financial crisis and expanding its risk management capabilities.
Core Business Areas
- Financial Guaranty: Provides credit protection to investors in debt securities, insuring against defaults and other credit events. This includes public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance.
- Asset Management: Manages a portfolio of investments, primarily focused on fixed income securities, to support its insurance operations.
- Risk Management: Manages and monitors the risk profile of its insurance portfolio, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and operational risk.
Leadership and Structure
Dominic Frederico serves as President and CEO. The company has a board of directors and operates through various subsidiaries, with a functional organizational structure emphasizing risk management and underwriting expertise.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Municipal Bond Insurance: Insures municipal bonds against default, enhancing their credit ratings and making them more attractive to investors. AGO and MBIA (MBI) dominate this market. Market share fluctuates based on issuance volume, but Assured Guaranty is generally the leader, varying from 50-70% depending on the year. Competitors are primarily MBIA (MBI) and Build America Mutual (BAM). Revenue from this product is a substantial portion of AGO's financial results, varying with municipal bond issuance volume.
- Infrastructure Finance Insurance: Provides credit enhancement for infrastructure projects, covering debt issued to finance transportation, utilities, and other essential infrastructure. Market share is substantial, competing with private insurers. Market share is smaller than municipal bond insurance, but is still a considerable portion of revenue. Competitors are private insurers and reinsurance companies.
- Structured Finance Insurance: Insures structured finance transactions, such as asset-backed securities (ABS), against losses due to defaults or other credit events. This is a smaller segment than the other two, and market share fluctuates considerably. Revenue is smaller but still a part of AGO's business. Competitors are private insurers and reinsurance companies specializing in structured finance.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The financial guaranty insurance industry is highly specialized, with a limited number of players. It is sensitive to economic cycles and interest rate movements, with demand driven by the need for credit enhancement and investor confidence. Changes in regulations and rating agency policies significantly impact the industry.
Positioning
Assured Guaranty is the leading financial guaranty insurer, known for its strong capital base, risk management expertise, and reputation for honoring claims. It benefits from its scale and experience in navigating complex credit markets.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for financial guaranty is dependent on the level of debt issuance in various sectors (municipal, infrastructure, structured finance). It fluctuates with economic conditions. The TAM is estimated to range from $200 billion to $500 billion annually for debt issuance, with Assured Guaranty aiming to secure a significant portion of the insured market.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong capital base
- Experienced management team
- Leading market position
- Robust risk management capabilities
- Reputation for claims paying ability
Weaknesses
- Sensitivity to economic cycles
- Concentration in specific sectors (e.g., municipal finance)
- Regulatory scrutiny
- Reliance on credit ratings
- Potential for large, infrequent claims
Opportunities
- Growth in infrastructure spending
- Increased demand for credit enhancement in emerging markets
- Expansion into new insurance lines
- Strategic acquisitions
- Increased adoption of ESG principles
Threats
- Economic recession
- Rising interest rates
- Increased competition
- Changes in regulations
- Downgrades by rating agencies
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- MBI
Competitive Landscape
Assured Guaranty has the largest market share, and has a reputation of claims payment and risk management. Its larger size and more diversified portfolio give it an advantage over smaller companies like MBIA. BAM being member-owned is also a factor
Major Acquisitions
Radnor Holdings Corp.
- Year: 2010
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 700
- Strategic Rationale: Expanded Assured Guaranty's capital base and reduced legacy risk exposures.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: AGO's growth has been tied to debt issuance and its ability to secure insurance contracts. Assess the historical growth rate of premiums earned and investment income.
Future Projections: Analyst estimates should be gathered from financial news outlets. Projections usually depend on industry growth, and AGO's market share.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives should be taken directly from AGO's financial reports. This might include expansion into new markets, product development, or cost-cutting measures.
Summary
Assured Guaranty is a leading financial guaranty insurer with a strong capital base and reputation. Its dominance in the municipal bond insurance market provides a stable revenue stream. Economic downturns and interest rate increases pose a threat, as well as market competition. Recent initiatives should continue to broaden into additional market segments.
Peer Comparison
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Statements
- SEC Filings
- Industry Reports
- Financial News Outlets
Disclaimers:
The data provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions and company performance are subject to change. Data may be delayed.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Assured Guaranty Ltd
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters - | ||
IPO Launch date 2004-04-23 | Deputy Chairman, President & CEO Mr. Dominic John Frederico CPA | ||
Sector Financial Services | Industry Insurance - Specialty | Full time employees 361 | Website https://www.assuredguaranty.com |
Full time employees 361 | Website https://www.assuredguaranty.com | ||
Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Insurance and Asset Management. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, the company involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, subscription finance facilities, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, it offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
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