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Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)

Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
$87.1
Last Close (24-hour delay)
Profit since last BUY-1.88%
upturn advisory
Consider higher Upturn Star rating
BUY since 38 days
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)​
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)​
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Upturn Stock infoUpturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
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Upturn Advisory Summary

06/30/2025: AGO (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.

Upturn Star Rating

rating

Below Average Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, often underperform the market, warranting careful consideration before investing.

Number of Analysts

rating

4 Analysts rated it

Limited analyst coverage, niche firm, research info may be scarce.

1 Year Target Price $106.5

1 Year Target Price $106.5

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$106.5Target price
Low$71.47
Current$87.1
high$95.74

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 35.22%
Avg. Invested days 57
Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating
Upturn Star Rating Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 3.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 3.0
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 06/30/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Mid-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 4.29B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 10.39
1Y Target Price 106.5
Price to earnings Ratio 10.39
1Y Target Price 106.5
Volume (30-day avg) 4
Beta 0.82
52 Weeks Range 71.47 - 95.74
Updated Date 06/30/2025
52 Weeks Range 71.47 - 95.74
Updated Date 06/30/2025
Dividends yield (FY) 1.55%
Basic EPS (TTM) 8.38

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Revenue by Geography

Geography revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date -
When -
Estimate -
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 50.11%
Operating Margin (TTM) 49.14%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 2.54%
Return on Equity (TTM) 8.18%

Valuation

Trailing PE 10.39
Forward PE 13.16
Enterprise Value 5812950000
Price to Sales(TTM) 4.85
Enterprise Value 5812950000
Price to Sales(TTM) 4.85
Enterprise Value to Revenue 6.37
Enterprise Value to EBITDA -
Shares Outstanding 49000000
Shares Floating 46320288
Shares Outstanding 49000000
Shares Floating 46320288
Percent Insiders 6.8
Percent Institutions 96.73

Analyst Ratings

Rating 2
Target Price 106.5
Buy 2
Strong Buy 1
Buy 2
Strong Buy 1
Hold 1
Sell -
Strong Sell -
Strong Sell -

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

Assured Guaranty Ltd

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) was founded in 2003. It evolved from enhancing municipal bonds to specializing in financial guaranty insurance for various sectors, navigating the 2008 financial crisis and expanding its risk management capabilities.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Financial Guaranty: Provides credit protection to investors in debt securities, insuring against defaults and other credit events. This includes public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance.
  • Asset Management: Manages a portfolio of investments, primarily focused on fixed income securities, to support its insurance operations.
  • Risk Management: Manages and monitors the risk profile of its insurance portfolio, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and operational risk.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

Dominic Frederico serves as President and CEO. The company has a board of directors and operates through various subsidiaries, with a functional organizational structure emphasizing risk management and underwriting expertise.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Municipal Bond Insurance: Insures municipal bonds against default, enhancing their credit ratings and making them more attractive to investors. AGO and MBIA (MBI) dominate this market. Market share fluctuates based on issuance volume, but Assured Guaranty is generally the leader, varying from 50-70% depending on the year. Competitors are primarily MBIA (MBI) and Build America Mutual (BAM). Revenue from this product is a substantial portion of AGO's financial results, varying with municipal bond issuance volume.
  • Infrastructure Finance Insurance: Provides credit enhancement for infrastructure projects, covering debt issued to finance transportation, utilities, and other essential infrastructure. Market share is substantial, competing with private insurers. Market share is smaller than municipal bond insurance, but is still a considerable portion of revenue. Competitors are private insurers and reinsurance companies.
  • Structured Finance Insurance: Insures structured finance transactions, such as asset-backed securities (ABS), against losses due to defaults or other credit events. This is a smaller segment than the other two, and market share fluctuates considerably. Revenue is smaller but still a part of AGO's business. Competitors are private insurers and reinsurance companies specializing in structured finance.

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The financial guaranty insurance industry is highly specialized, with a limited number of players. It is sensitive to economic cycles and interest rate movements, with demand driven by the need for credit enhancement and investor confidence. Changes in regulations and rating agency policies significantly impact the industry.

Positioning

Assured Guaranty is the leading financial guaranty insurer, known for its strong capital base, risk management expertise, and reputation for honoring claims. It benefits from its scale and experience in navigating complex credit markets.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The TAM for financial guaranty is dependent on the level of debt issuance in various sectors (municipal, infrastructure, structured finance). It fluctuates with economic conditions. The TAM is estimated to range from $200 billion to $500 billion annually for debt issuance, with Assured Guaranty aiming to secure a significant portion of the insured market.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Strong capital base
  • Experienced management team
  • Leading market position
  • Robust risk management capabilities
  • Reputation for claims paying ability

Weaknesses

  • Sensitivity to economic cycles
  • Concentration in specific sectors (e.g., municipal finance)
  • Regulatory scrutiny
  • Reliance on credit ratings
  • Potential for large, infrequent claims

Opportunities

  • Growth in infrastructure spending
  • Increased demand for credit enhancement in emerging markets
  • Expansion into new insurance lines
  • Strategic acquisitions
  • Increased adoption of ESG principles

Threats

  • Economic recession
  • Rising interest rates
  • Increased competition
  • Changes in regulations
  • Downgrades by rating agencies

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • MBI

Competitive Landscape

Assured Guaranty has the largest market share, and has a reputation of claims payment and risk management. Its larger size and more diversified portfolio give it an advantage over smaller companies like MBIA. BAM being member-owned is also a factor

Major Acquisitions

Radnor Holdings Corp.

  • Year: 2010
  • Acquisition Price (USD millions): 700
  • Strategic Rationale: Expanded Assured Guaranty's capital base and reduced legacy risk exposures.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: AGO's growth has been tied to debt issuance and its ability to secure insurance contracts. Assess the historical growth rate of premiums earned and investment income.

Future Projections: Analyst estimates should be gathered from financial news outlets. Projections usually depend on industry growth, and AGO's market share.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives should be taken directly from AGO's financial reports. This might include expansion into new markets, product development, or cost-cutting measures.

Summary

Assured Guaranty is a leading financial guaranty insurer with a strong capital base and reputation. Its dominance in the municipal bond insurance market provides a stable revenue stream. Economic downturns and interest rate increases pose a threat, as well as market competition. Recent initiatives should continue to broaden into additional market segments.

Peer Comparison

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Statements
  • SEC Filings
  • Industry Reports
  • Financial News Outlets

Disclaimers:

The data provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions and company performance are subject to change. Data may be delayed.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About Assured Guaranty Ltd

Exchange NYSE
Headquaters -
IPO Launch date 2004-04-23
Deputy Chairman, President & CEO Mr. Dominic John Frederico CPA
Sector Financial Services
Industry Insurance - Specialty
Full time employees 361
Full time employees 361

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Insurance and Asset Management. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, the company involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, subscription finance facilities, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, it offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.