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Mizuho Financial Group Inc.(MFG)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MFG
10/16/2026: MFG (5-star) is a SELL. SELL for 3 days. Simulated Profits (17.26%). Updated daily EoD!
Mizuho Financial Group is a major Japanese bank offering a full suite of services, from retail to global investment banking. The firm's strengths lie in its deep integration within the Japanese corporate sector and a stable, diversified revenue model that supports consistent dividends. Its primary growth story revolves around international M&A expansion and modernizing its digital platform to better serve global clients. However, investors face risks from domestic interest rate volatility, the challenge of updating legacy IT systems, and intense competition from other global megabanks. The stock is best suited for value and dividend-focused investors, with ongoing developments in central bank policy and digital transformation being key to monitor.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Mizuho is a mature financial institution focused more on stability and dividends than rapid capital appreciation. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock can participate in momentum rallies driven by changes in Japanese monetary policy. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at attractive price-to-book ratios relative to global banking peers. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Consistent dividend history makes it an appealing choice for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Medium fit | While established, the stock is subject to currency fluctuations and macroeconomic volatility inherent in global banking. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The ADR price is subject to both market sentiment and JPY/USD exchange rate movements. |
| Valuation risk | Low | Value-based metrics suggest the stock remains reasonably priced relative to underlying assets. |
| Competition risk (Japanese Megabank competition) | Medium / high | Intense rivalry with MUFG and SMFG limits market share expansion potential. |
| Business quality | Strong | As a systemically important bank, Mizuho maintains a deeply integrated and stable business model. |
| Dividend income | Strong | The company maintains a reliable dividend distribution policy for shareholders. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The success of long-term digital transformation and international M&A integration is critical for future performance. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 105.06% | Avg. Invested days 83 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/16/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 123.38B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 14 | 1Y Target Price 10.99 |
Price to earnings Ratio 14 | 1Y Target Price 10.99 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.4M shares | Beta 0.39 | 52 Weeks Range 6.26 - 11.40 | Updated Date 10/16/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 6.26 - 11.40 | Updated Date 10/16/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.80% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.73 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Interest earned on loans and securities less interest paid on deposits. | The primary way banks make money; profitability improves as interest rates rise. |
| Fee & Commission Income | Advisory fees, brokerage commissions, and asset management fees. | Diversified revenue streams that stabilize the bottom line during volatile interest rate cycles. |
| Geography: Japan | Domestic retail, corporate banking, and trust services. | This is the company's core market, accounting for the majority of operations. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 14 | Forward PE 14.62 | Enterprise Value -43.95T | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.03 |
Enterprise Value -43.95T | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.03 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.92 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 12.07B | Shares Floating 12.17B |
Shares Outstanding 12.07B | Shares Floating 12.17B | ||
Percent Insiders 0.01 | Percent Institutions 2.28 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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