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Upturn AI Summary - About
Montauk Renewables Inc(MNTK)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MNTK
10/09/2026: MNTK (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Montauk Renewables is a pure-play renewable energy company focused on converting landfill gas into renewable natural gas and electricity. Its primary strength lies in long-term access to critical landfill assets and technical expertise in biogas recovery. The company's growth story is centered on the ongoing energy transition and the increasing demand for low-carbon transportation fuels. However, it faces significant risks from volatile environmental credit markets, policy shifts, and competition from well-funded energy majors. The stock is best suited for growth investors comfortable with commodity-like exposure and regulatory risk, and investors should monitor development progress and credit price trends closely.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers growth potential tied to the energy transition, but it is subject to commodity-like price volatility. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock can experience sharp moves based on policy updates, requiring a positive trend signal for entry. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | Valuation is often tied to future project pipeline expectations rather than current earnings multiples. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend, making it unsuitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Exposure to volatile environmental credit markets creates significant price sensitivity. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenues are heavily impacted by market-driven fluctuations in RIN prices and natural gas rates. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | The stock's valuation often reflects aggressive growth assumptions that may face regulatory hurdles. |
| Competition risk (energy major entry) | Medium / high | Increased competition from well-funded energy giants can compress margins and project returns. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company has stable long-term site agreements but operates in an asset-heavy, capital-intensive industry. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | No dividend payments provide no cushion against market volatility for income investors. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success relies on the technical ability to bring RNG projects to commercial operation on schedule. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -32.04% | Avg. Invested days 33 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 390.01M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 45.67 | 1Y Target Price 1.7 |
Price to earnings Ratio 45.67 | 1Y Target Price 1.7 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 753.0K shares | Beta 0.66 | 52 Weeks Range 1.07 - 3.28 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 1.07 - 3.28 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.06 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Renewable Natural Gas | Sale of gas and associated environmental credits to fleet operators and other end users. | The primary revenue engine, highly dependent on clean energy policy incentives. |
| Renewable Electricity | Generation of power via landfill gas combustion for grid operators. | Provides a base layer of utility-like revenue but generally offers lower margins than RNG. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 45.67 | Forward PE 8.05 | Enterprise Value 465.20M | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.06 |
Enterprise Value 465.20M | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.06 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.46 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 11.07 | Shares Outstanding 142.34M | Shares Floating 65.77M |
Shares Outstanding 142.34M | Shares Floating 65.77M | ||
Percent Insiders 70.15 | Percent Institutions 19.11 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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