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Upturn AI Summary - About
Montauk Renewables Inc(MNTK)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MNTK
11/06/2026: MNTK (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Montauk Renewables is a specialist in the renewable energy sector, primarily focused on capturing landfill and agricultural methane to produce renewable natural gas and electricity. The company possesses an established position in the biogas market, supported by extensive operational experience and long-term contracts. Its primary growth story revolves around the development of new projects to meet rising demand for low-carbon fuels. However, investors face risks regarding the volatility of environmental credit prices, regulatory dependence, and competition from larger energy players. While the company offers exposure to the energy transition, it is best suited for growth-oriented investors capable of managing the volatility inherent in renewable fuel markets.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers growth potential through project development but is tied to the volatile regulatory landscape of environmental credits. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is highly dependent on environmental policy news and RIN price fluctuations, making it a conditional play. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | Valuation is often driven by forward-looking project growth assumptions rather than current earnings multiples. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend, prioritizing capital allocation toward project development. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High regulatory and commodity price volatility makes this unsuitable for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenue is significantly sensitive to fluctuating RIN prices and environmental credit values. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | The stock price is highly dependent on speculative future project development success. |
| Competition risk (RNG infrastructure) | Medium / high | Competition for high-quality waste streams and interconnection capacity is intense. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the technology is established, the reliance on subsidies adds inherent complexity. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | No dividend is paid, requiring returns to come strictly from share price appreciation. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Building and maintaining complex gas conversion infrastructure involves significant technical and timeline risks. |
Price Behavior
Hockey-Stick Growth
The stock demonstrates a Hockey-Stick Growth price path pattern.
Highly Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -41.71% | Avg. Invested days 34 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 387.17M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 45.33 | 1Y Target Price 1.7 |
Price to earnings Ratio 45.33 | 1Y Target Price 1.7 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 627.5K shares | Beta 0.69 | 52 Weeks Range 1.07 - 3.28 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 1.07 - 3.28 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.06 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Renewable Natural Gas | Processing methane from landfills and farms into fuel and selling the resulting environmental attributes. | The company earns money by converting waste into valuable fuel and selling the environmental credits generated. |
| Renewable Electricity | Generating power from methane at landfills and selling it to utilities. | This is a stable segment providing predictable cash flows through long-term utility contracts. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-09 | When After Market | Estimate 0.05 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 4.19% | Operating Margin (TTM) 1.06% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.67% | Return on Equity (TTM) 3.05% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 45.33 | Forward PE 8.05 | Enterprise Value 526.41M | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.05 |
Enterprise Value 526.41M | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.05 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.78 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 12.53 | Shares Outstanding 142.34M | Shares Floating 65.77M |
Shares Outstanding 142.34M | Shares Floating 65.77M | ||
Percent Insiders 70.15 | Percent Institutions 18.97 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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