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Upturn AI Summary - About
MP Materials Corp(MP)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MP
11/02/2026: MP (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
MP Materials Corp is a specialized materials company that operates the Mountain Pass mine, the only major source of rare earth materials in the United States. Its core business strength lies in its vertical integration strategy, aiming to convert raw ore into high-value permanent magnets for electric vehicles and renewable energy. While the company has a unique strategic position, it faces significant risks from commodity price volatility and the operational challenges of scaling its magnetics manufacturing facility. The stock is best suited for growth-oriented investors looking for exposure to the critical minerals supply chain, and observers should prioritize monitoring production milestones at the company's new Texas facility.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company is a primary beneficiary of the structural shift toward domestic rare earth supply chains. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is highly dependent on commodity price cycles and news regarding production milestones. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation is often tied to volatile commodity futures, making traditional value metrics difficult to apply. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend and is in a heavy capital-intensive phase. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High commodity exposure and operational leverage create significant price volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenue is highly sensitive to the market price of NdPr oxides. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | The stock often trades at a premium based on long-term growth expectations. |
| Competition risk (Chinese supply chain) | High | Dominant global players can influence supply availability and market prices. |
| Business quality | Medium | Asset quality is excellent, but operations are susceptible to capital-intensive scaling risks. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | No income is currently returned to shareholders. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Successfully scaling the Texas magnet facility is critical to the business model. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 42.01% | Avg. Invested days 30 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/02/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 7.05B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 70.94 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 70.94 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 5.2M shares | Beta 1.99 | 52 Weeks Range 37.11 - 76.80 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 37.11 - 76.80 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.33 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Rare Earth Mining | Sale of rare earth concentrates extracted from Mountain Pass. | Revenue depends on global prices for raw rare earth materials. |
| Processing and Magnets | Production of refined oxides and finished permanent magnets. | Future revenue growth depends on successfully selling higher-value finished components. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 38.46 | Enterprise Value 6.53B | Price to Sales(TTM) 16.93 |
Enterprise Value 6.53B | Price to Sales(TTM) 16.93 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 21.38 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 105.7 | Shares Outstanding 178.10M | Shares Floating 144.32M |
Shares Outstanding 178.10M | Shares Floating 144.32M | ||
Percent Insiders 19.62 | Percent Institutions 78.38 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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