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Upturn AI Summary - About
Vail Resorts Inc(MTN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MTN
10/19/2026: MTN (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Vail Resorts Inc is a prominent operator of mountain resorts and a leader in the ski industry, known for its strategic Epic Pass subscription model. The company's strengths include a geographically diverse portfolio of premium assets and high customer loyalty, which provide significant revenue visibility. Its primary investment opportunity lies in continued network expansion and operational optimization. However, investors should be mindful of risks related to weather-dependent revenues, climate change, and macroeconomic sensitivity in discretionary travel. The stock may suit investors seeking long-term exposure to the leisure and travel sector, provided they monitor seasonal performance, capital expenditure levels, and competitive trends from alternative pass operators.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth through acquisitions and pass adoption but is subject to cyclical tourism trends. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum potential is conditional on positive seasonal performance and strong pass sales, requiring a positive upturn signal. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation is sensitive to industry cycles and debt levels, requiring careful entry points. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company has a consistent history of dividend payments supported by predictable cash flows from pass commitments. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The business is sensitive to weather and travel demand, which can lead to share price volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Resort traffic and share price are sensitive to weather and travel trends. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The stock price relies on sustainable growth expectations in a capital-intensive industry. |
| Competition risk (Alterra/Ikon) | Medium | Competition for pass holders impacts pricing power and market share. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company owns high-quality, hard-to-replicate mountain assets. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are reliable but can be affected by operational cash flow needs. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Integrating new acquisitions and managing large-scale labor needs are critical. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -54.13% | Avg. Invested days 21 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/19/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 5.38B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 36.92 | 1Y Target Price 148.36 |
Price to earnings Ratio 36.92 | 1Y Target Price 148.36 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 983.6K shares | Beta 0.77 | 52 Weeks Range 114.90 - 158.03 | Updated Date 10/18/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 114.90 - 158.03 | Updated Date 10/18/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 5.81% | Basic EPS (TTM) 4.09 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Mountain Segment | Lift tickets, Epic Pass, ski school, and dining services. | This is the core revenue engine driven by snow-related activities and season pass sales. |
| Lodging & Real Estate | Resort hotels, management fees, and real estate development. | This provides supplemental revenue and enhances the destination resort experience. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 36.92 | Forward PE 21.93 | Enterprise Value 7.88B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.9 |
Enterprise Value 7.88B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.9 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.78 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.63 | Shares Outstanding 35.64M | Shares Floating 31.83M |
Shares Outstanding 35.64M | Shares Floating 31.83M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.72 | Percent Institutions 134.93 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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