Vail Resorts Inc logo

Vail Resorts Inc(MTN)

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ADVISORIES YOU CAN VERIFY
QUALITY SIGNAL
1-STAR RATING
PASS
LAST CLOSE
$141.16
10/02/2026
(24-hour delay)

Advisory History & Simulated Performance *

*as per simulation (see disclosures)
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Advisory Performance History (Simulated)Advisory Performance History info

Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MTN

10/02/2026: MTN (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Vail Resorts Inc is a prominent operator of mountain resorts and a leader in the ski industry, known for its strategic Epic Pass subscription model. The company's strengths include a geographically diverse portfolio of premium assets and high customer loyalty, which provide significant revenue visibility. Its primary investment opportunity lies in continued network expansion and operational optimization. However, investors should be mindful of risks related to weather-dependent revenues, climate change, and macroeconomic sensitivity in discretionary travel. The stock may suit investors seeking long-term exposure to the leisure and travel sector, provided they monitor seasonal performance, capital expenditure levels, and competitive trends from alternative pass operators.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Investor Fit

Investor styleFitWhy
Growth investorMixed fitThe company offers moderate growth through acquisitions and pass adoption but is subject to cyclical tourism trends.
Momentum investorMixed fitMomentum potential is conditional on positive seasonal performance and strong pass sales, requiring a positive upturn signal.
Value investorMixed fitValuation is sensitive to industry cycles and debt levels, requiring careful entry points.
Dividend investorStrong fitThe company has a consistent history of dividend payments supported by predictable cash flows from pass commitments.
Low-risk investorWeak fitThe business is sensitive to weather and travel demand, which can lead to share price volatility.

Risk Profile

Risk factorLevelWhy it matters
Price volatilityMedium / highResort traffic and share price are sensitive to weather and travel trends.
Valuation riskMediumThe stock price relies on sustainable growth expectations in a capital-intensive industry.
Competition risk (Alterra/Ikon)MediumCompetition for pass holders impacts pricing power and market share.
Business qualityStrongThe company owns high-quality, hard-to-replicate mountain assets.
Dividend incomeMediumDividends are reliable but can be affected by operational cash flow needs.
Execution riskMediumIntegrating new acquisitions and managing large-scale labor needs are critical.

Price Behavior

Rolling Over
PRICE PATH

Rolling Over

The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.

Moderately Choppy
PRICE STABILITY

Moderately Choppy

The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -31.98%
Avg. Invested days 30
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Advisory Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 10/02/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

★★★★★
MTN receives a 3-star rating based on the available scored pillars. The rating is constrained by weak price momentum, and limited analyst upside.

Company Fundamentals

★★★★★
MTN has moderate overall fundamentals (3 stars), with moderate financial health, soft growth momentum, and solid ownership. In FY2026 versus FY2025, solid cash generation (FCF margin 8.7%) is partially offset by negative earnings growth (-47.3%), slightly negative revenue growth (-4.3%), soft profitability (net margin 5.2%).

Financial Health Rating

★★★★★
MTN's financial health is supported by solid cash strength, including free-cash-flow generation (8.7% of revenue). Profitability is moderate (3 stars), which helps explain the 3-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

★★★★★
MTN's growth profile is soft, with the least-weak measure being revenue growth at -4.3% FY2026 versus FY2025. By comparison, while earnings growth (-47.3%, negative) and free-cash-flow growth (-22.4%, negative) hold the profile back, so recent growth is not broad-based across the business.

Ownership

★★★★★
Institutional ownership is 135.1% and approximately 91.1% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable, supporting liquidity and institutional participation. Insider ownership of 1.64% provides only moderate management-shareholder alignment.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

BAMCO Inc 18.34%
Capital World Investors 12.22%
Capital Research & Mgmt Co - Division 3 10.72%
BlackRock Inc 9.58%
Oasis Management Co. Ltd 5.86%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

★★★★★
MTN generates approximately $418 of gross profit, $148 of operating income, and $87 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2026 results. Moderate margins and solid cash conversion support a 3-star rating, while capital efficiency is soft.

Economic Dimensions

★★★★★
Effective Tax Rate: 24.77%

Quantitative Style Profile

★★★★★
MTN has a liquid, relatively low-volatility profile. Weak momentum is the primary drawback.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Value-OrientedLow VolatilitySmall / Mid Cap RiskShort Squeeze RiskHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

Key Highlights

Company Size Mid-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 4.95B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 29.95
1Y Target Price 143.85
Price to earnings Ratio 29.95
1Y Target Price 143.85
Volume (30-day avg) 905.1K shares
Beta 0.7
52 Weeks Range 116.69 - 160.49
Updated Date 10/02/2026
52 Weeks Range 116.69 - 160.49
Updated Date 10/02/2026
Dividends yield (FY) 6.47%
Basic EPS (TTM) 4.64

How Company Makes Money

Business areaWhat it includesRetail investor read
Mountain SegmentLift tickets, Epic Pass, ski school, and dining services.This is the core revenue engine driven by snow-related activities and season pass sales.
Lodging & Real EstateResort hotels, management fees, and real estate development.This provides supplemental revenue and enhances the destination resort experience.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Revenue by Geography

Geography revenue - Year on Year

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Valuation

Trailing PE 29.95
Forward PE 21.93
Enterprise Value 7.88B
Price to Sales(TTM) 1.75
Enterprise Value 7.88B
Price to Sales(TTM) 1.75
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.78
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.63
Shares Outstanding 35.64M
Shares Floating 32.46M
Shares Outstanding 35.64M
Shares Floating 32.46M
Percent Insiders 1.64
Percent Institutions 135.09

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Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

About Vail Resorts Inc

Exchange NYSE
Headquarters Broomfield, CO, United States
IPO Launch date 1997-02-03
CEO & Executive Chairman Mr. Robert A. Katz
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Resorts & Casinos
Full time employees 6800
Full time employees 6800

Vail Resorts, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and regional ski areas in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. This segment is also involved in ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities. Its lodging segment owns and manages various luxury hotels and condominiums under the RockResorts brand; operates other lodging properties and various condominiums; and offers resort ground transportation services. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties. Vail Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.