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Upturn AI Summary - About
Murphy USA Inc(MUSA)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MUSA
11/11/2026: MUSA (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Murphy USA is a specialized retail operator focused on high-volume fuel and convenience store sales, frequently located near large-format retailers. The company has a leading position in its niche, known for an efficient operating model that maximizes fuel throughput and utilizes robust cash flow for aggressive share repurchases. Its primary growth opportunity lies in increasing high-margin in-store sales, such as food service. Risks include the long-term impact of vehicle electrification on fuel demand and regulatory pressure on tobacco products. The stock may suit value-oriented investors who appreciate disciplined capital allocation, though investors should monitor the company's progress in evolving its in-store merchandise mix.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is moderate and tied to store expansion rather than rapid scaling. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often benefits from strong relative strength when fuel markets are favorable. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company trades at reasonable valuation multiples relative to its cash flow generation. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | The yield is modest, though the company is committed to consistent payments. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While operations are stable, the company is still exposed to commodity price and retail volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Fluctuations in global oil prices impact the cost of goods sold and consumer demand. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The stock's premium is sensitive to market sentiment regarding long-term fuel demand. |
| Competition risk (Convenience Retail) | Medium / high | Intense competition from larger retail chains and regional convenience players limits pricing power. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company possesses a highly efficient, high-volume operating model with strong cash flow. |
| Dividend income | Low | The dividend yield is not a primary driver of total returns compared to share repurchases. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Future growth depends on the successful conversion of sites and the expansion of the in-store merchandise mix. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -18.76% | Avg. Invested days 39 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/11/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Sector & Industry Intelligence
Sector snapshot as of 2026-11-10
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
- Signal
- Constructive
- Sentiment
- Strong Bullish
- Market state
- Strong Bullish
- Momentum
- BUY Breadth Improving
- BUY participation
- 68.8%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 33 / 48
- 22-session BUY-count change
- +27
More qualifying stocks are receiving or maintaining BUY advisories, indicating improving market participation.
Industry
Specialty Retail
- BUY participation
- 100.0%
- Active BUY / eligible
- 3 / 3
- 22-session BUY-count change
- +2
Eligible universe: 3 stocks.
The sector signal does not change this stock’s BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory.
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 9.40B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 14.61 | 1Y Target Price 616 |
Price to earnings Ratio 14.61 | 1Y Target Price 616 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 262.0K shares | Beta 0.32 | 52 Weeks Range 351.45 - 634.43 | Updated Date 11/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 351.45 - 634.43 | Updated Date 11/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.50% | Basic EPS (TTM) 35.55 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel Sales | Retail sale of gasoline and diesel fuel. | The primary revenue generator, reliant on high volume and optimized margins. |
| Merchandise Sales | Tobacco, snacks, beverages, and other convenience store items. | The higher-margin component that the company is actively trying to grow. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-28 | When After Market | Estimate 8.09 | Actual 9.59 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 3.18% | Operating Margin (TTM) 4.16% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 12.52% | Return on Equity (TTM) 99.02% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 14.61 | Forward PE 16.81 | Enterprise Value 11.78B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.45 |
Enterprise Value 11.78B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.45 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.51 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 9.23 | Shares Outstanding 18.10M | Shares Floating 16.30M |
Shares Outstanding 18.10M | Shares Floating 16.30M | ||
Percent Insiders 9.99 | Percent Institutions 89.24 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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