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Upturn AI Summary - About
Nelnet Inc(NNI)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NNI
10/09/2026: NNI (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Nelnet Inc is a diversified financial services and technology company known for its significant position in U.S. student loan servicing and K-12 education software. Its business model relies on the steady cash flow of legacy servicing operations while expanding into higher-growth areas like renewable energy and payment technology. The primary investment story centers on its unique ability to manage a complex, multi-sector portfolio that provides long-term value. Key risks include heavy dependence on federal policy changes in student lending and competitive pressure in the ed-tech space. The stock may suit value-oriented investors who appreciate a diversified asset base, though they should monitor regulatory shifts and the firm’s continued execution in newer growth markets.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The business has steady growth segments but is anchored by mature, regulated business lines. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock typically exhibits lower volatility and longer-term value-based performance patterns. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company is often viewed as a holding company with diversified assets that may be undervalued relative to their combined worth. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | The dividend is reliable but modest, reflecting a strategy focused on capital reinvestment. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | Regulatory risks inherent in student loan servicing provide a layer of policy uncertainty. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock can react to legislative changes affecting student loans. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The company has a history of prudent capital allocation and asset management. |
| Competition risk (ed-tech) | Medium / high | Software competitors are constantly innovating in the school management space. |
| Business quality | Strong | Nelnet has built a diverse, cash-generative business model over several decades. |
| Dividend income | Low | Income is not the primary driver for total return for this stock. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Integration of new businesses and management of solar projects requires operational discipline. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -5.3% | Avg. Invested days 46 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.48B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 15.06 | 1Y Target Price 125 |
Price to earnings Ratio 15.06 | 1Y Target Price 125 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 142.5K shares | Beta 0.77 | 52 Weeks Range 116.02 - 143.64 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 116.02 - 143.64 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.02% | Basic EPS (TTM) 8.32 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Loan Servicing | Servicing student loans for the Department of Education. | Steady fee-based income from managing existing loan portfolios. |
| Nelnet Business Services | FACTS platform and payment processing for schools. | Software-as-a-service model provides reliable recurring revenue. |
| Renewable Energy | Solar project development and tax equity. | Capitalizes on tax incentives for long-term project growth. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 15.06 | Forward PE 13.05 | Enterprise Value 11.21B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.01 |
Enterprise Value 11.21B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.01 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 8.02 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 25.16M | Shares Floating 16.10M |
Shares Outstanding 25.16M | Shares Floating 16.10M | ||
Percent Insiders 30.9 | Percent Institutions 48.99 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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