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Upturn AI Summary - About
NI Holdings Inc(NODK)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for NODK
10/23/2026: NODK (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
NI Holdings Inc is a regional property and casualty insurance company primarily serving the Midwest. Its core strength lies in a deep-rooted, loyal customer base and a conservative approach to underwriting, which has provided stability in its regional markets. The primary investment story revolves around organic growth through commercial lines and operational efficiency gains, though it faces stiff competition from national insurers with significantly greater scale. Key risks include exposure to regional weather-related losses and inflationary pressure on claim costs. The stock may suit value-oriented or patient investors, though it is limited by low liquidity and irregular dividend history.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company operates in a mature, slow-growth insurance market. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock typically exhibits low liquidity and lacks strong momentum signals. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The stock can be valued based on book value, though it may lack significant upside catalysts. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividend policy is irregular, making it less suitable for dedicated income seekers. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While insurance is defensive, regional concentration introduces specific volatility risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Liquidity in the stock can lead to price swings despite the stable nature of the underlying insurance business. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The company typically trades in line with book value, limiting downside but also upside valuation expansion. |
| Competition risk (National Insurance Carriers) | High | Large competitors have greater scale and technological resources to capture market share. |
| Business quality | Medium | It is a reliable but small-scale operator in a highly regulated and capital-intensive industry. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Irregular dividend payments provide limited reliability for income-focused portfolios. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Maintaining underwriting discipline in the face of inflation and climate risk is critical to performance. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 17.01% | Avg. Invested days 84 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 304.03M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 39.21 | 1Y Target Price - |
Price to earnings Ratio 39.21 | 1Y Target Price - | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 27.0K shares | Beta 0.31 | 52 Weeks Range 12.37 - 16.70 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 12.37 - 16.70 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.38 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance Underwriting | Premiums collected from auto, home, and commercial policies. | The company earns money by collecting more in premiums than it pays out in claims. |
| Investment Portfolio | Returns on invested cash and premium floats. | Investment returns act as a secondary, important source of profit and stability. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 39.21 | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 213.65M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.14 |
Enterprise Value 213.65M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.14 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.69 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 20.40M | Shares Floating 6.00M |
Shares Outstanding 20.40M | Shares Floating 6.00M | ||
Percent Insiders 63.6 | Percent Institutions 25.22 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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