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Upturn AI Summary - About
Origin Bancorp, Inc.(OBK)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for OBK
10/23/2026: OBK (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Origin Bancorp, Inc. is a regional financial institution focused on serving commercial and individual clients primarily across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The company has a established reputation for relationship-based banking, leveraging growth in high-demand Southern markets to expand its footprint. Its main strengths include a loyal customer base and a history of disciplined regional acquisitions. Key risks involve geographic concentration, sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, and intense competition from larger banking institutions. As a dividend-paying stock, it may suit value-oriented investors, though it is subject to the inherent cyclicality of the regional banking sector and requires monitoring of asset quality and loan growth trends.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company shows moderate growth potential tied to regional development rather than rapid, disruptive expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock tends to track steady banking sector trends rather than high-momentum volatility. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Regional bank valuations often present value opportunities relative to long-term earnings potential. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Consistent dividend payments make this an attractive option for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While established, the stock is subject to broader financial sector and macroeconomic risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Financial stocks are sensitive to macroeconomic changes and interest rate policies. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment toward regional banks can lead to significant valuation fluctuations. |
| Competition risk (banking) | High | The sector is highly competitive with constant pressure on margins from large and small players. |
| Business quality | Medium | The franchise has a stable, loyal customer base in its core Southern markets. |
| Dividend income | Low | Dividend payouts are generally stable, though subject to capital requirements. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful integration of acquisitions and management of loan quality are critical. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -1.84% | Avg. Invested days 44 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.62B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 16.49 | 1Y Target Price 59.2 |
Price to earnings Ratio 16.49 | 1Y Target Price 59.2 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 171.9K shares | Beta 0.74 | 52 Weeks Range 31.85 - 55.32 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 31.85 - 55.32 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.32% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.18 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Interest earned on loans and securities minus interest paid on deposits. | The primary way the bank makes money is by charging more interest on loans than it pays to depositors. |
| Non-Interest Income | Service fees, wealth management fees, and deposit account charges. | These represent diversified fee-based revenue streams that help stabilize earnings. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-28 | When After Market | Estimate 1.06 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 26.42% | Operating Margin (TTM) 42.75% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1% | Return on Equity (TTM) 8.02% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 16.49 | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 1.22B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.29 |
Enterprise Value 1.22B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.29 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.27 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 30.85M | Shares Floating 28.83M |
Shares Outstanding 30.85M | Shares Floating 28.83M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.12 | Percent Institutions 70.53 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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