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Upturn AI Summary - About
Origin Bancorp, Inc.(OBK)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for OBK
10/09/2026: OBK (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Origin Bancorp, Inc. is a regional financial holding company primarily focused on providing commercial and retail banking services across the southern United States. The company is noted for its relationship-driven model and long-standing focus on credit discipline, which has historically helped it manage assets effectively. Its primary growth opportunity lies in regional market expansion and the ongoing integration of technology to enhance efficiency. However, the company faces risks from interest rate volatility, geographic concentration, and intense competition from larger national banks. It may best suit investors looking for value in the regional banking sector, with long-term monitoring required for acquisition success and deposit-cost management.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth potential through regional expansion but is not a high-growth tech or hyper-scale entity. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Banking stocks typically follow sector-wide cycles rather than independent momentum-driven price action. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Often trades at reasonable valuation multiples relative to earnings, appealing to investors looking for fundamental bank value. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The company provides a consistent dividend yield, making it suitable for income-oriented investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While established, regional banking involves inherent risks related to economic cycles and credit quality. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Bank stocks are sensitive to interest rate changes and broader market sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Investors must monitor if the stock trades at a premium relative to its book value or peers. |
| Competition risk (regional banking competition) | Medium / high | Increased competition for loans and deposits from larger banks pressures margins. |
| Business quality | Strong | The bank maintains a solid reputation for credit discipline and relationship-focused services. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividend stability depends on the company's ability to maintain earnings during economic downturns. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful integration of acquisitions is vital for achieving projected growth and scale. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -1.84% | Avg. Invested days 44 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.59B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 16.21 | 1Y Target Price 59.2 |
Price to earnings Ratio 16.21 | 1Y Target Price 59.2 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 169.1K shares | Beta 0.74 | 52 Weeks Range 31.56 - 55.32 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 31.56 - 55.32 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.33% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.18 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Interest earned on loans and securities minus interest paid on deposits and borrowings. | The bank makes the majority of its profit from the spread between what it earns on loans and what it pays customers for deposits. |
| Non-Interest Income | Service charges, fees from treasury management, and wealth management advisory fees. | This provides a steady stream of income that is less dependent on interest rate fluctuations. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 16.21 | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 1.19B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.22 |
Enterprise Value 1.19B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.22 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.22 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 30.85M | Shares Floating 28.83M |
Shares Outstanding 30.85M | Shares Floating 28.83M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.12 | Percent Institutions 70.47 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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