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Upturn AI Summary - About
Old Second Bancorp Inc(OSBC)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for OSBC
10/13/2026: OSBC (4-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Old Second Bancorp is a stable, Chicago-based regional bank that provides commercial, retail, and wealth management services to its local community. Its primary strengths lie in a long-standing brand reputation and a disciplined approach to credit management. The main growth story revolves around successful integration of recent acquisitions and the modernization of its digital banking suite to remain competitive. Key risks include intense competition from larger banks and sensitivity to regional economic fluctuations within the Midwest. The stock is best suited for value or dividend-focused investors seeking a stable regional banking play, provided they monitor the bank's ability to maintain net interest margins during rate cycles.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth potential rather than aggressive, high-multiple expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Banking stocks typically lack the volatility profile momentum investors seek unless in specific interest-rate cycles. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at valuation multiples that appeal to value-oriented investors seeking tangible book value growth. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The consistent dividend payout and stable yield make it an attractive option for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | As a regulated financial institution with a stable deposit base, it offers lower beta compared to technology or growth sectors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Bank stocks are sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and interest rate expectations. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The stock is generally valued based on fundamental book value, limiting speculative bubble risk. |
| Competition risk (Regional Banking) | Medium / high | Smaller banks face persistent competitive pressure from scale-advantaged larger institutions. |
| Business quality | Medium | The franchise quality is strong within its niche, though not dominant on a national scale. |
| Dividend income | Low | Dividends are well-covered, reducing the risk of unexpected income disruption. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on the effective management of credit risk and integration of acquisitions. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 29.05% | Avg. Invested days 62 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.26B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 14.28 | 1Y Target Price 28.33 |
Price to earnings Ratio 14.28 | 1Y Target Price 28.33 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 535.2K shares | Beta 0.77 | 52 Weeks Range 16.43 - 26.06 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 16.43 - 26.06 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.10% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.74 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Interest earned on commercial and retail loans minus interest paid on customer deposits. | The bank primarily profits from the spread between the interest it earns from borrowers and the interest it pays to depositors. |
| Fee-Based Services | Trust services, wealth management fees, and transaction charges. | Non-interest income from financial advice and banking services provides a stable, secondary revenue stream. |
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-21 | When After Market | Estimate 0.59 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 27.07% | Operating Margin (TTM) 44.69% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.47% | Return on Equity (TTM) 11.4% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 14.28 | Forward PE 8.6 | Enterprise Value 1.59B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.7 |
Enterprise Value 1.59B | Price to Sales(TTM) 3.7 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.66 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 50.88M | Shares Floating 49.18M |
Shares Outstanding 50.88M | Shares Floating 49.18M | ||
Percent Insiders 4.33 | Percent Institutions 78.97 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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