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Upturn AI Summary - About
Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR(PBR)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for PBR
10/28/2026: PBR (3-star) is a WEAK-BUY. BUY for 64 days. Simulated Profits (18.57%). Updated daily EoD!
Petrobras is a massive, state-controlled integrated energy company with a world-class portfolio of offshore and pre-salt oil assets in Brazil. Its primary strength lies in its high-margin, low-cost production capability and a dominant position in the domestic Brazilian fuel market. Investors are attracted to its strong cash flow generation and potential for significant dividend returns. However, the company faces persistent risks from political interference, volatile crude oil prices, and intense regulatory oversight. This stock is best suited for value or income-oriented investors who can tolerate the political and operational volatility inherent in a government-linked, commodity-driven business, with close monitoring of dividend policies and government energy mandates.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | While the company has strong production growth potential, its growth is often constrained by political and capital allocation decisions. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often exhibits strong price momentum driven by global oil prices and institutional sentiment toward emerging market energy producers. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock frequently trades at a low price-to-earnings ratio relative to global peers, offering a value proposition. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Petrobras is a significant dividend payer, though distributions can be inconsistent due to political and board policy changes. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The stock is subject to high volatility due to political, regulatory, and commodity price risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Profitability is directly linked to global oil prices which are inherently unpredictable. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment regarding emerging markets and political risk can significantly compress valuation multiples. |
| Competition risk (energy major competition) | Medium | Global supermajors possess larger capital budgets and diversified geographical footprints. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company possesses world-class offshore assets and high-margin production capabilities. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | While dividend yields are often high, policy shifts can lead to dividend suspensions or reductions. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Managing complex, large-scale deepwater projects requires flawless operational execution. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -8.19% | Avg. Invested days 31 | Today’s Advisory WEAK BUY |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  1.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 143.71B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 5.63 | 1Y Target Price 23.95 |
Price to earnings Ratio 5.63 | 1Y Target Price 23.95 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 26.1M shares | Beta -0.23 | 52 Weeks Range 10.78 - 26.39 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 10.78 - 26.39 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 16.30% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.96 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production (E&P) | Extraction and sale of crude oil and natural gas from offshore fields. | This is the primary profit engine where low production costs generate strong cash flow. |
| Refining, Transportation, & Marketing (R&M) | Processing crude oil into fuels like diesel and gasoline and distributing them. | This segment is essential for domestic market share but is often affected by fuel pricing regulations. |
| Geography: Brazil | Domestic production, refinery, and distribution operations. | Brazil is the primary source of both revenue and regulatory/political risk for the firm. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 5.63 | Forward PE 8.65 | Enterprise Value 196.47B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.26 |
Enterprise Value 196.47B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.26 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.02 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 3.81 | Shares Outstanding 3.72B | Shares Floating 3.94B |
Shares Outstanding 3.72B | Shares Floating 3.94B | ||
Percent Insiders 0.03 | Percent Institutions 22.28 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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