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Upturn AI Summary - About
Philip Morris International Inc(PM)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for PM
10/23/2026: PM (4-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 116 days. Simulated Profits (11.39%). Updated daily EoD!
Philip Morris International is a prominent global tobacco company that is actively transitioning its business model from traditional cigarettes to smoke-free alternatives. The company has a leading position in the heated tobacco market with its IQOS platform and has significantly bolstered its portfolio with the acquisition of the ZYN nicotine pouch brand. Its main growth opportunity lies in successfully converting adult smokers to its smoke-free products, which command higher margins. However, the company faces substantial risks from global regulatory changes and the inherent decline of cigarette volumes. Investors typically view this as a dividend-yielding, value-oriented stock, making it a potential fit for income-focused portfolios while necessitating careful monitoring of regulatory developments and consumer adoption rates.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers growth potential through its smoke-free transition but is anchored by a mature, declining traditional cigarette business. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Momentum investors may favor the stock if growth in smoke-free revenues consistently outpaces the decline in combustible volumes. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | PMI is often viewed as a value stock due to its steady cash flows and focus on shareholder returns. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company maintains a reliable dividend policy, making it suitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the dividend is stable, the regulatory risks inherent in the tobacco industry introduce complexity for conservative investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Market reactions to regulatory shifts can impact short-term share price stability. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The stock's valuation often reflects long-term sentiment regarding the success of the smoke-free transition. |
| Competition risk (Tobacco/Nicotine) | Medium / high | Competition from traditional peers and new nicotine entrants impacts market share. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company has strong cash-generating capability and high brand loyalty. |
| Dividend income | Strong | PMI has a proven track record of maintaining and growing its dividend. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully managing the transition away from cigarettes requires complex operational and regulatory maneuvering. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 60.76% | Avg. Invested days 60 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 314.43B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 28.82 | 1Y Target Price 210.13 |
Price to earnings Ratio 28.82 | 1Y Target Price 210.13 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4.7M shares | Beta 0.36 | 52 Weeks Range 137.25 - 210.45 | Updated Date 10/23/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 137.25 - 210.45 | Updated Date 10/23/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.74% | Basic EPS (TTM) 7 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Smoke-Free Products | IQOS heated tobacco devices, HEETS, TEREA, and nicotine pouches like ZYN. | This is the company's high-growth area and the future of its business model. |
| Combustible Products | Cigarette brands such as Marlboro, Chesterfield, and L&M sold in international markets. | This segment currently provides the bulk of the cash flow used to fund the smoke-free transition. |
| Geography | Operations across Europe, Asia, Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. | The company is a truly global operator, meaning its performance is tied to international regulatory environments. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-21 | When Before Market | Estimate 2.3 | Actual 2.36 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 24.83% | Operating Margin (TTM) 41.9% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 17.22% | Return on Equity (TTM) - |
Valuation
Trailing PE 28.82 | Forward PE 20.88 | Enterprise Value 340.56B | Price to Sales(TTM) 7.29 |
Enterprise Value 340.56B | Price to Sales(TTM) 7.29 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 8 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 18.2 | Shares Outstanding 1.56B | Shares Floating 1.56B |
Shares Outstanding 1.56B | Shares Floating 1.56B | ||
Percent Insiders 0.16 | Percent Institutions 84.36 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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