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Upturn AI Summary - About
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc(REFI)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for REFI
10/23/2026: REFI (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) is a specialized mortgage REIT primarily focused on providing senior secured loans to the US cannabis industry. Its core strength lies in its ability to navigate a complex regulatory landscape to secure high-yield returns, supported by disciplined collateral management. The primary investment story centers on the company’s role as a liquidity provider in an underserved market with potential growth tied to ongoing cannabis legalization. However, investors must consider the risks of industry concentration, credit defaults, and sensitivity to regulatory shifts. REFI is best suited for income-focused investors, with ongoing developments in federal cannabis legislation remaining a critical factor to monitor.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company is primarily structured for income generation rather than aggressive capital appreciation. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum potential is generally limited unless specific favorable regulatory news triggers market interest. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The stock may present value depending on its discount to book value and the perceived credit quality of its loan portfolio. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company is explicitly designed as a dividend-paying vehicle for income-oriented investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The specialized nature of the cannabis industry and exposure to credit risk make this unsuitable for conservative, risk-averse portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The niche focus on the cannabis industry can lead to outsized price movements based on legislative headlines. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing of REITs is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and the perceived quality of the underlying loan book. |
| Competition risk (Cannabis lending) | Medium / high | As the industry matures, increased competition could compress interest margins for new loan originations. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business relies on the specialized expertise of its external manager, which introduces alignment and key-person risk. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividends are dependent on the ongoing performance of borrowers, who operate in a high-risk regulatory environment. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The ability to source and underwrite new loans successfully is essential to maintaining the dividend payout level. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -26.86% | Avg. Invested days 33 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 240.07M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 6.84 | 1Y Target Price 15.12 |
Price to earnings Ratio 6.84 | 1Y Target Price 15.12 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 233.3K shares | Beta 0.34 | 52 Weeks Range 8.76 - 11.41 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 8.76 - 11.41 | Updated Date 10/24/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 20.00% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.37 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Senior Secured Lending | Interest and fee income derived from loans to cannabis operators, secured by real estate. | The company makes money by lending money to cannabis businesses, charging them interest, and paying that interest out to shareholders. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 6.84 | Forward PE 7.12 | Enterprise Value 367.22M | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.92 |
Enterprise Value 367.22M | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.92 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 6.99 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 25.62M | Shares Floating 22.67M |
Shares Outstanding 25.62M | Shares Floating 22.67M | ||
Percent Insiders 11.51 | Percent Institutions 32.03 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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