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Upturn AI Summary - About
Sunrun Inc(RUN)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for RUN
11/03/2026: RUN (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Sunrun Inc is a leader in the residential solar-as-a-service market, providing homeowners with solar panels and energy storage solutions under long-term agreements. Its core strength lies in its extensive scale and ability to manage complex residential energy installations. The company is transitioning toward high-margin grid services by utilizing its large battery fleet as a virtual power plant. However, Sunrun faces significant risks from high interest rates, which raise its cost of capital, and unfavorable changes in state-level net metering policies. The stock may best suit growth-oriented investors with a long-term horizon; investors should monitor interest rate trends and legislative updates in key solar markets.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers exposure to the energy transition, but growth has been hampered by recent macroeconomic headwinds. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Momentum is inconsistent as the stock is highly sensitive to interest rate volatility and policy news. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The company has limited earnings predictability and heavy debt loads, making traditional value metrics difficult to apply. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Sunrun does not pay a dividend and focuses entirely on funding its capital-intensive business model. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High leverage and exposure to interest rate and policy risks result in significant stock price volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock frequently experiences significant price swings due to macroeconomic and policy news. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Valuation is sensitive to interest rate expectations and long-term capital cost assumptions. |
| Competition risk (Solar market) | High | Intense competition from lower-cost installers and Tesla's integrated brand threatens margins. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business model provides recurring revenue but requires constant and significant external capital. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company does not provide income to shareholders. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Operational complexity in managing thousands of installations and complex financing structures is high. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 11.11% | Avg. Invested days 28 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/03/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.97B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 5.57 | 1Y Target Price 14.21 |
Price to earnings Ratio 5.57 | 1Y Target Price 14.21 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 8.7M shares | Beta 2.32 | 52 Weeks Range 6.78 - 21.95 | Updated Date 11/03/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 6.78 - 21.95 | Updated Date 11/03/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.48 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Customer Agreements (Leases/PPAs) | Recurring monthly payments for solar energy systems. | Steady, long-term cash flow from homeowners who don't buy systems outright. |
| Installation and Hardware Sales | Direct sales of Brightbox batteries and solar panels. | Upfront cash generation from one-time product sales. |
| Geography (United States) | Operations across key U.S. states with solar-friendly climates. | Growth is highly dependent on state-specific solar regulations and utility policies. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-04 | When After Market | Estimate 0.26 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 11.59% | Operating Margin (TTM) 4% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 0.26% | Return on Equity (TTM) -19.86% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 5.57 | Forward PE 7.06 | Enterprise Value 16.32B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.57 |
Enterprise Value 16.32B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.57 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 4.7 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 18.51 | Shares Outstanding 238.55M | Shares Floating 220.92M |
Shares Outstanding 238.55M | Shares Floating 220.92M | ||
Percent Insiders 2.77 | Percent Institutions 117.35 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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