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Upturn AI Summary - About
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company(SMG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for SMG
11/02/2026: SMG (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Scotts Miracle-Gro is a long-standing consumer goods company known for its dominant lawn and garden products and specialized hydroponic supplies. The company holds a leading position in the U.S. retail lawn and garden market, supported by strong brand recognition. Its primary investment story currently revolves around a strategic turnaround focused on deleveraging and stabilizing profitability following pandemic-driven demand volatility. Key risks include heavy seasonality, high debt levels, and competitive pressure from lower-cost private labels. This stock may suit investors who have a higher risk tolerance and believe in the successful execution of the company's current financial restructuring and long-term recovery plans.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company is currently in a restructuring and deleveraging phase rather than rapid expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock has struggled to maintain sustained upward momentum amid industry-wide demand normalization. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation may appear attractive to some, but high debt levels and earnings volatility add complexity. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | While dividends are paid, the primary focus for the company is balance sheet repair. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Exposure to seasonal demand, debt, and market cyclicality results in higher risk profiles. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock experiences significant price swings based on seasonal earnings and macro demand changes. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment heavily influences valuation, making it susceptible to sudden shifts in investor outlook. |
| Competition risk (private label) | Medium / high | Increased availability of lower-cost private label alternatives threatens premium pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business has strong brand recognition but carries structural debt that impacts overall quality metrics. |
| Dividend income | Medium | The dividend is stable but growth is constrained by the necessity of debt repayment. |
| Execution risk | High | Successfully managing the turnaround of the Hawthorne business while maintaining core lawn growth is critical. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 10.94% | Avg. Invested days 33 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/02/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 3.79B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 23.26 | 1Y Target Price 72.83 |
Price to earnings Ratio 23.26 | 1Y Target Price 72.83 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.2M shares | Beta 1.85 | 52 Weeks Range 47.90 - 74.53 | Updated Date 11/02/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 47.90 - 74.53 | Updated Date 11/02/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 4.24% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.8 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Consumer Lawn & Garden | Fertilizers, grass seed, mulch, soils, and pest control products. | This is the company's core, stable cash-flow-generating segment that relies on steady consumer gardening demand. |
| Hawthorne Gardening | Hydroponic lighting, climate control, nutrients, and growing media. | This is a higher-growth but more volatile segment focused on professional and serious indoor cultivation. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 23.26 | Forward PE 15.22 | Enterprise Value 5.71B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.09 |
Enterprise Value 5.71B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.09 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.64 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 13.21 | Shares Outstanding 58.22M | Shares Floating 44.55M |
Shares Outstanding 58.22M | Shares Floating 44.55M | ||
Percent Insiders 23.7 | Percent Institutions 89.06 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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