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Upturn AI Summary - About
TAL Education Group(TAL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for TAL
10/13/2026: TAL (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
TAL Education Group is a Chinese education company that has undergone a significant transformation following a major regulatory restructuring of its industry in 2021. Once a leader in K-12 tutoring, the company now focuses on non-academic enrichment services and technology-driven learning solutions. Its main strengths include a recognizable brand and a solid balance sheet that provides resources for ongoing innovation. The primary investment story rests on the successful execution of this new, leaner business model in a tightly regulated market. Risks remain high, particularly concerning future regulatory shifts, competitive intensity, and the company's ability to maintain long-term profitability within its new operational scope.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company is in a transition phase, making future growth trajectory less predictable. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on positive market sentiment toward Chinese education stocks. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation depends on the long-term success of the new, smaller business model. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | TAL does not pay regular dividends. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Regulatory risks create high volatility, unsuitable for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Policy-driven news creates significant and rapid price swings. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Difficulty in forecasting future earnings makes valuation challenging. |
| Competition risk (Educational Services) | High | Intense rivalry persists for remaining market segments. |
| Business quality | Medium | The core business is undergoing a fundamental transformation. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | No dividend payments are currently provided. |
| Execution risk | High | Successfully pivoting the business model is critical for long-term viability. |
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -26.94% | Avg. Invested days 25 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 7.06B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 7.95 | 1Y Target Price 16.1 |
Price to earnings Ratio 7.95 | 1Y Target Price 16.1 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4.0M shares | Beta 0.08 | 52 Weeks Range 8.88 - 13.37 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 8.88 - 13.37 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.6 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Learning Services | Non-academic and enrichment tutoring services. | The company earns revenue from providing educational classes that fall outside the restricted academic curriculum. |
| Content and Solutions | Digital learning materials and educational technology products. | Revenue is generated from selling educational content and technology-based learning tools. |
| Geography: China | All major operations are concentrated in the Chinese market. | TAL's business is almost entirely dependent on the regulatory and economic environment in China. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 7.95 | Forward PE 9.47 | Enterprise Value 4.18B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.21 |
Enterprise Value 4.18B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.21 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.31 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.47 | Shares Outstanding 407.23M | Shares Floating 361.03M |
Shares Outstanding 407.23M | Shares Floating 361.03M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.01 | Percent Institutions 65.8 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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