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Upturn AI Summary - About
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp(TFPM)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for TFPM
10/30/2026: TFPM (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp is a mid-tier streaming and royalty company that provides essential financing to the mining industry in exchange for future gold and silver production. Its business model offers investors exposure to precious metals with higher margins and lower operational risks than traditional mining companies. The company's primary growth story centers on the strategic acquisition of high-quality royalty assets. However, investors must monitor risks related to metal price volatility and dependence on third-party mine performance. The stock may suit dividend-seeking investors or those desiring precious metal exposure, though its performance remains tied to cyclical commodity market trends.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is tied to acquisition cycles and commodity price trends rather than consistent internal product innovation. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock tends to perform well during sustained bull markets for gold and precious metals. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation is often tied to Net Asset Value (NAV) multiples, which fluctuate with market sentiment on gold. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company provides a reliable quarterly dividend supported by predictable cash flows from streaming assets. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Exposure to commodity price volatility and mining operational risks makes this unsuitable for conservative portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenue is directly sensitive to changes in gold and silver spot prices. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing relative to NAV can be premium or discount depending on sector sentiment. |
| Competition risk (Streaming and Royalty) | Medium | Competition for high-quality royalty assets is intense, which can pressure acquisition pricing. |
| Business quality | Medium | The model benefits from low overhead but remains dependent on the success of third-party mine operators. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are dependent on metal production, which can be impacted by operational issues at partner sites. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful growth depends on identifying and negotiating accretive new royalty deals. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 26.48% | Avg. Invested days 50 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/30/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 5.79B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 14.14 | 1Y Target Price 39.5 |
Price to earnings Ratio 14.14 | 1Y Target Price 39.5 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 384.2K shares | Beta 0.31 | 52 Weeks Range 26.56 - 41.55 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 26.56 - 41.55 | Updated Date 11/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.79% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.99 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Streaming | Contracts to purchase gold at fixed prices from partner mines. | The company makes money by buying gold cheap from miners and selling it at market prices. |
| Silver and Base Metal Royalties | Revenue share from silver, copper, and lead production. | Additional income from other metals helps diversify the revenue base. |
| Geographic Exposure | Operations primarily in the Americas and Australia. | Risk is spread across multiple stable mining jurisdictions. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-03 | When After Market | Estimate 0.23 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 84.32% | Operating Margin (TTM) 65.1% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 8.54% | Return on Equity (TTM) 20.15% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 14.14 | Forward PE 19.92 | Enterprise Value 6.00B | Price to Sales(TTM) 11.86 |
Enterprise Value 6.00B | Price to Sales(TTM) 11.86 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 12.28 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 13.32 | Shares Outstanding 206.00M | Shares Floating 68.94M |
Shares Outstanding 206.00M | Shares Floating 68.94M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.4 | Percent Institutions 88.4 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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