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Upturn AI Summary - About
Timken Company(TKR)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for TKR
10/13/2026: TKR (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
The Timken Company is a well-established industrial manufacturer specializing in engineered bearings and power transmission products. It serves critical sectors like renewable energy, mining, and heavy transportation, which provide a foundation for its revenue. Investors typically appreciate the company's focus on high-quality engineered solutions and its history of reliable dividend payments. However, the company is susceptible to cyclical industrial demand and potential volatility in steel costs, requiring investors to monitor global production trends closely. It may best suit value-oriented or dividend-focused investors looking for stable industrial exposure, provided they are comfortable with the inherent cyclicality of the manufacturing sector.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers steady growth rather than the aggressive expansion typical of high-growth sectors. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on positive industrial production trends and cyclical upturns. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Timken often trades at reasonable valuation multiples relative to its industrial peers. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company provides a reliable and historically growing dividend stream. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While established, the stock is subject to industrial cyclicality which adds volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | The stock is sensitive to industrial cycle shifts and broader economic data. |
| Valuation risk | Low | Trading at standard multiples, it rarely faces extreme valuation bubbles. |
| Competition risk (bearing and motion control) | Medium | Intense rivalry from SKF and other global players keeps margins capped. |
| Business quality | Strong | Timken possesses a durable, highly engineered product moat. |
| Dividend income | Strong | The company is a dependable income source for industrial-focused portfolios. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on integrating acquisitions into the legacy business structure. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 47.43% | Avg. Invested days 47 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 7.98B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 30.95 | 1Y Target Price 144.2 |
Price to earnings Ratio 30.95 | 1Y Target Price 144.2 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 924.2K shares | Beta 1.18 | 52 Weeks Range 71.73 - 145.98 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 71.73 - 145.98 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.21% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.72 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Mobile Industries | Bearings and components for automotive, rail, and off-highway markets. | Revenue driven by global vehicle and transport equipment production cycles. |
| Process Industries | Bearings and power transmission for mining, energy, and heavy industry. | Revenue driven by heavy infrastructure and raw material production trends. |
| Geographic Exposure | Manufacturing and sales across North America, Europe, and Asia. | Diversified global reach protects against regional economic downturns. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 30.95 | Forward PE 15.38 | Enterprise Value 9.96B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.68 |
Enterprise Value 9.96B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.68 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.09 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 13.77 | Shares Outstanding 69.30M | Shares Floating 66.59M |
Shares Outstanding 69.30M | Shares Floating 66.59M | ||
Percent Insiders 7.94 | Percent Institutions 96.28 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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