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Upturn AI Summary - About
MorningStar Partners, L.P.(TXO)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for TXO
10/13/2026: TXO (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
MorningStar Partners, L.P. is an independent oil and natural gas company operating as an MLP, primarily focused on the acquisition and management of mature, producing assets. The company is known for its cash-generative business model, which aims to provide steady distributions to unitholders rather than high-growth, high-risk exploration. Its primary strengths lie in its operational focus on efficient production from established wells, though it faces significant risks from commodity price volatility and the long-term energy transition. This stock is best suited for income-focused investors who can tolerate the inherent risks of the energy sector. Investors should monitor commodity price trends and the company’s success in sourcing accretive property acquisitions.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company is focused on mature assets rather than high-growth exploration. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | Price action is generally tied to commodity cycles rather than rapid growth momentum. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The focus on cash-generative, mature assets often results in attractive valuation metrics. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The MLP structure is specifically designed to distribute cash to unitholders. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While assets are mature, the inherent volatility of commodity prices creates risk. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Direct exposure to oil and gas price swings impacts revenue immediately. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Valuations are heavily dependent on commodity price forecasting. |
| Competition risk (commodity production) | Medium / high | Competing with larger, more efficient players for acquisition targets. |
| Business quality | Medium | The reliance on aging assets requires constant maintenance capital. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Distributions are variable and not guaranteed. |
| Execution risk | Medium | The ability to manage mature fields profitably depends on operational efficiency. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -13.45% | Avg. Invested days 35 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/13/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 796.21M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 19.75 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 19.75 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 160.9K shares | Beta 0.03 | 52 Weeks Range 9.33 - 15.58 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 9.33 - 15.58 | Updated Date 10/13/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 9.87% | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.74 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Oil Production | Extraction and sale of crude oil from mature assets. | Revenue rises and falls with global oil prices. |
| Natural Gas | Production and distribution of natural gas. | Revenue is subject to regional and national natural gas market prices. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 12.56 | Enterprise Value 949.96M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.96 |
Enterprise Value 949.96M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.96 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.34 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.45 | Shares Outstanding 55.45M | Shares Floating 39.69M |
Shares Outstanding 55.45M | Shares Floating 39.69M | ||
Percent Insiders 30.06 | Percent Institutions 25 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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