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Upturn AI Summary - About
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.(VIST)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for VIST
10/12/2026: VIST (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Vista Energy is an independent oil and gas company focused on developing the Vaca Muerta shale basin in Argentina. The company has built a strong reputation for operational efficiency, leveraging low-cost drilling techniques to rapidly scale production. Its primary growth story revolves around Argentina's potential to become a significant global energy exporter. However, investors must consider material risks, including geopolitical volatility, currency controls, and sensitivity to global commodity prices. The stock may best suit growth-oriented investors who are comfortable with the inherent risks of emerging market energy investments and want exposure to unconventional shale development. Key developments to monitor include infrastructure expansion projects and changes in Argentine energy policy.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company offers significant production growth potential driven by the development of world-class shale assets. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often reacts strongly to positive production news and improvements in Argentina's energy export infrastructure. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | While the assets are high-quality, the geopolitical and macroeconomic risks in Argentina often require a valuation discount. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company currently reinvests all available cash flow into development and does not pay a regular dividend. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The company's exposure to volatile oil prices and the Argentine economic environment makes it unsuitable for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenue is directly linked to fluctuating global oil and gas benchmark prices. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment toward emerging market energy stocks can lead to significant price swings. |
| Competition risk (Major oil producers) | Medium | The company competes with much larger, integrated oil majors for talent, capital, and market access. |
| Business quality | Medium / high | Vista operates high-quality, low-cost assets, but is constrained by regional infrastructure and political factors. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company prioritizes capital expenditure for growth over cash distributions to shareholders. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully scaling shale operations requires precise technical execution and continuous capital availability. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 13.85% | Avg. Invested days 39 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/12/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 7.33B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 8.88 | 1Y Target Price 91.17 |
Price to earnings Ratio 8.88 | 1Y Target Price 91.17 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.1M shares | Beta -0.46 | 52 Weeks Range 34.60 - 81.44 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 34.60 - 81.44 | Updated Date 10/11/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 7.46 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream Operations | Sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced in Vaca Muerta. | Vista makes money by extracting oil and gas from the ground and selling it to domestic and international buyers. |
| Geography: Argentina | Operations concentrated entirely within the Vaca Muerta shale basin. | The company's performance is heavily tied to the political and economic stability of Argentina. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 8.88 | Forward PE 6.27 | Enterprise Value 10.92B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.08 |
Enterprise Value 10.92B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.08 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.1 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 4.56 | Shares Outstanding 110.62M | Shares Floating 89.76M |
Shares Outstanding 110.62M | Shares Floating 89.76M | ||
Percent Insiders 11.64 | Percent Institutions 60.82 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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