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YPF Sociedad Anonima(YPF)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for YPF
11/06/2026: YPF (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
YPF is an integrated energy leader in Argentina, managing assets that span from oil exploration in the Vaca Muerta shale to nationwide retail fuel distribution. The company is a primary beneficiary of Argentina's massive unconventional energy resources, representing a key growth story for regional energy production. However, it faces significant risks tied to Argentine macroeconomic volatility, government regulatory interference, and high debt obligations. The stock is often considered a value play due to country-specific risk, making it better suited for investors comfortable with high volatility and geopolitical complexity. Key developments for investors include progress in shale export capacity and regional macroeconomic stability.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The potential for shale output growth is high, but geopolitical and macro risks can impede capital appreciation. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on positive developments in shale exports and domestic energy policy. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at a significant discount to net asset value due to country-specific risk. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Inconsistent dividend payouts make this an unreliable source of passive income. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High exposure to Argentine economic and regulatory volatility makes this a high-risk asset. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Commodity price swings significantly impact operating margins. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Market sentiment toward Argentina often dictates valuation multiples. |
| Competition risk (Shale peers) | Medium | Independent producers are increasingly efficient in extracting shale resources. |
| Business quality | Medium | Government control complicates operational autonomy. |
| Dividend income | Low | Payouts are erratic and not a core feature of the investment. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Scaling unconventional extraction requires massive, consistent capital expenditure. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 27.21% | Avg. Invested days 38 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 15.16B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 7.12 | 1Y Target Price 62.16 |
Price to earnings Ratio 7.12 | 1Y Target Price 62.16 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.2M shares | Beta -0.1 | 52 Weeks Range 32.74 - 57.87 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 32.74 - 57.87 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 5.43 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Downstream | Refining and retail fuel sales in Argentina. | The primary source of stable cash flow for the company. |
| Upstream | Oil and gas extraction, especially in the Vaca Muerta shale. | The main growth engine and long-term value creator. |
| Geography: Argentina | Domestic production, refining, and sales. | The company's success is inseparable from the health of the Argentine economy. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-28 | When After Market | Estimate 1.92 | Actual 3 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 9.76% | Operating Margin (TTM) 29.16% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 9.92% | Return on Equity (TTM) 17.41% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 7.12 | Forward PE 5.03 | Enterprise Value 22.52B | Price to Sales(TTM) - |
Enterprise Value 22.52B | Price to Sales(TTM) - | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 2.55 | Shares Outstanding 392.02M | Shares Floating 160.44M |
Shares Outstanding 392.02M | Shares Floating 160.44M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.36 | Percent Institutions 40.66 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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