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Upturn AI SWOT - About
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
07/03/2025: ZTO (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Upturn Star Rating
Not Recommended Performance
These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.
Number of Analysts
21 Analysts rated it
Well-followed company, solid analyst reports, reliable data for confident investing.
1 Year Target Price $23.32
1 Year Target Price $23.32
| 14 | Strong Buy |
| 5 | Buy |
| 2 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -6.65% | Avg. Invested days 37 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 07/03/2025 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 14.08B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 11.25 | 1Y Target Price 23.32 |
Price to earnings Ratio 11.25 | 1Y Target Price 23.32 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 21 | Beta -0.17 | 52 Weeks Range 16.02 - 26.96 | Updated Date 07/2/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 16.02 - 26.96 | Updated Date 07/2/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 3.94% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.59 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 20.76% | Operating Margin (TTM) 22.08% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 8.15% | Return on Equity (TTM) 15.64% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 11.25 | Forward PE 11.47 | Enterprise Value 13256899113 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.31 |
Enterprise Value 13256899113 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.31 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.1 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 7.57 | Shares Outstanding 592169984 | Shares Floating 382737619 |
Shares Outstanding 592169984 | Shares Floating 382737619 | ||
Percent Insiders 2.38 | Percent Institutions 23.78 |
Upturn AI SWOT
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. was founded in 2002 in Shanghai, China. It has grown to become one of the largest express delivery companies in China, leveraging a partnership network model. A key milestone was its IPO on the NYSE in 2016, which provided capital for expansion.
Core Business Areas
- Express Delivery Services: Provides domestic and international express delivery services, including door-to-door pickup and delivery. It handles e-commerce parcels and business documents.
- Freight Services: Offers freight forwarding services to transport larger items and bulk shipments across China.
- Other Services: Provides other logistics-related services, such as warehousing, supply chain management solutions, and cross-border e-commerce logistics.
Leadership and Structure
Lai Meisong is the Chairman and CEO. The organizational structure is based on a network partner model, where independent partners manage local operations while ZTO provides centralized network management, IT support, and branding.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Express Delivery: This is ZTO's core offering, primarily serving China's e-commerce market. ZTO has a significant market share in China, estimated around 22%. Competitors include SF Express, Yunda Express, and YTO Express. Revenue from express delivery constitutes the majority of ZTOu2019s total revenue.
- Freight and Logistics Services: Provides logistical support for large-scale product shipping, supplementing their main Express Delivery Services. Competitors include Deppon Logistics, Kerry Logistics.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The express delivery industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the expansion of e-commerce. The industry is highly competitive, with many players vying for market share. Increased demand for faster delivery and lower costs is shaping the market.
Positioning
ZTO is positioned as a leading express delivery company in China, leveraging its extensive network, advanced technology, and cost-effective operations. Its partnership model enables rapid expansion and efficient service delivery.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for China's express delivery market is estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually. ZTO is well-positioned to capture a significant portion of this market due to its scale and network coverage.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Extensive network coverage in China
- Advanced technology and automation
- Cost-effective operations
- Strong brand recognition
- Experienced management team
Weaknesses
- Reliance on the Chinese market
- Exposure to regulatory changes in China
- Dependence on e-commerce growth
- Network partner management complexities
- Currency exchange rate risks
Opportunities
- Expansion into international markets
- Diversification into new logistics services
- Increased investment in technology
- Growth in cross-border e-commerce
- Partnerships with e-commerce platforms
Threats
- Intense competition
- Economic slowdown in China
- Rising labor and transportation costs
- Changes in consumer preferences
- Geopolitical risks
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- SFG
- YTO
- YRD
Competitive Landscape
ZTO's advantages include its scale, network coverage, and cost-effective operations. Its disadvantages include its reliance on the Chinese market and exposure to regulatory risks. Compared to SF Express (SFG), ZTO is lower cost, but SFG has higher brand recognition and better customer service. ZTO's network partner model gives it an advantage in terms of expansion speed.
Major Acquisitions
No major public acquisitions listed
- Year: 2017
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 0
- Strategic Rationale: Focus on organic growth and network expansion
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: ZTO has experienced rapid growth in parcel volume and revenue over the past decade, driven by the expansion of e-commerce in China.
Future Projections: Analysts project continued growth in parcel volume, revenue, and earnings, driven by the ongoing expansion of e-commerce and logistics services in China. The growth rate is expected to moderate as the market matures.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include investments in automation, expansion of the network, and diversification into new services, such as cross-border e-commerce logistics.
Summary
ZTO Express has a strong position in the Chinese express delivery market and is well-positioned to benefit from the continued growth of e-commerce. Its expansive network and cost-effective operations are key advantages. However, it faces intense competition and regulatory risks. Investing in technology and international expansion could help sustain its growth.
Peer Comparison
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company reports
- Analyst estimates
- Industry publications
- Publicly available market data
Disclaimers:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on your own research and due diligence. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Financial figures are estimates.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters - | ||
IPO Launch date 2016-10-27 | Founder, Chairman & CEO Mr. Meisong Lai | ||
Sector Industrials | Industry Integrated Freight & Logistics | Full time employees 24477 | Website https://www.zto.com |
Full time employees 24477 | Website https://www.zto.com | ||
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It offers freight forwarding services; and delivery services for e-commerce merchants and traditional merchants, and other express service users. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
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