Alibaba Group Holding Ltd logo

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd(BABA)

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ADVISORIES YOU CAN VERIFY
QUALITY SIGNAL
1-STAR RATING
PASS
LAST CLOSE
$108.76
09/28/2026
(24-hour delay)

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*as per simulation (see disclosures)
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Upturn Advisory & Investor View for BABA

09/28/2026: BABA (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Alibaba Group is a prominent Chinese internet and technology company that operates a vast commerce and cloud computing ecosystem. Its core strength lies in its deeply entrenched online marketplaces, which command a leading position in the Chinese retail landscape, alongside a high-growth cloud segment. The investment narrative centers on potential international expansion and the firm's pivot toward AI, balanced against significant risks from fierce local competition and regulatory uncertainty. While valuation often appears compelling, the stock remains sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments in China. It may suit investors comfortable with higher volatility who are seeking exposure to the Chinese digital economy through a diversified tech conglomerate.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Investor Fit

Investor styleFitWhy
Growth investorMixed fitWhile the cloud and international segments show potential, domestic e-commerce growth has matured significantly.
Momentum investorWeak fitThe stock has struggled to maintain sustained upward momentum due to regulatory and macro uncertainty.
Value investorStrong fitThe stock often trades at low valuation multiples relative to its historical earnings and cash generation.
Dividend investorMixed fitAlibaba now pays a dividend, but it is not historically viewed as a primary income-generating asset.
Low-risk investorWeak fitHigh geopolitical, regulatory, and market volatility make this unsuitable for risk-averse portfolios.

Risk Profile

Risk factorLevelWhy it matters
Price volatilityHighThe stock is subject to sharp price swings driven by shifts in investor sentiment toward Chinese equities.
Valuation riskMediumWhile cheap on paper, valuation is heavily discounted due to risks that may persist for years.
Competition risk (e-commerce)HighAggressive pricing and innovation from Pinduoduo threaten Alibaba's core market share.
Business qualityStrongThe underlying business maintains high margins and a powerful, deeply entrenched network effect.
Dividend incomeLowDividends are a new addition and should not be relied upon as a primary source of stable income.
Execution riskMediumSuccessfully managing the recent corporate restructuring is critical for long-term value creation.

Price Behavior

Steep Decline
PRICE PATH

Steep Decline

The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.

Moderately Choppy
PRICE STABILITY

Moderately Choppy

The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 0.83%
Avg. Invested days 28
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Advisory Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 09/28/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

★★★★★
BABA receives a 3-star rating, supported by solid quantitative characteristics, and strong analyst coverage. The rating is constrained by weak unit economics, and weak price momentum.

Company Fundamentals

★★★★★
BABA has moderate overall fundamentals (3 stars), with moderate financial health, soft growth momentum, and moderate ownership. In FY2026 versus FY2025, solid profitability (net margin 10.1%) is partially offset by negative earnings growth (-20.4%), weak cash generation (FCF margin -5.0%), moderate revenue growth (+2.7%).

Financial Health Rating

★★★★★
BABA's financial health is supported by solid cash strength, including free-cash-flow generation of $-50.7B (-5.0% of revenue). Profitability is moderate (3 stars), which helps explain the 3-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

★★★★★
Revenue growth is BABA's strongest growth driver at +2.7% FY2026 versus FY2025 (moderate, 3 stars). By comparison, while earnings growth (-20.4%, negative) and free-cash-flow growth (-164.9%, negative) hold the profile back, so recent growth is not broad-based across the business.

Ownership

★★★★★
Institutional ownership is 10.1% (soft) and 89.3% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable (strong). Insider ownership of 1.77% provides only moderate management-shareholder alignment.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

JPMorgan Chase & Co 0.82%
PRIMECAP Management Company 0.75%
UBS Group AG 0.43%
Dodge & Cox 0.40%
HSBC Holdings PLC 0.37%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

★★★★★
BABA generates approximately $398 of gross profit, $58 of operating income, and $-50 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2026 results. Negative free cash flow explains the 1-star rating, with weak cash conversion and soft capital efficiency.

Economic Dimensions

★★★★★
Effective Tax Rate: 3.27%

Quantitative Style Profile

★★★★★
BABA has a large-cap, liquid, relatively low-volatility profile. Weak momentum is the primary drawback.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Value-OrientedLow VolatilityLarge / Mega Cap StabilityHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

Key Highlights

Company Size Large-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 272.85B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 24.83
1Y Target Price 185.2
Price to earnings Ratio 24.83
1Y Target Price 185.2
Volume (30-day avg) 11.4M shares
Beta 0.5
52 Weeks Range 91.99 - 190.92
Updated Date 09/27/2026
52 Weeks Range 91.99 - 190.92
Updated Date 09/27/2026
Dividends yield (FY) 0.96%
Basic EPS (TTM) 4.42

How Company Makes Money

Business areaWhat it includesRetail investor read
China CommerceCommission fees, marketing services on Taobao/Tmall.This is the core profit engine of the company.
Cloud IntelligencePublic cloud services, AI, big data.The key future growth engine for the firm.
International CommerceAliExpress, Lazada, Trendyol revenues.A growth play targeting markets outside of China.
Geography: ChinaPrimary revenue concentration.Most revenue comes from the Chinese domestic market.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

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Valuation

Trailing PE 24.83
Forward PE 17.92
Enterprise Value 260.67B
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.26
Enterprise Value 260.67B
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.26
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.67
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 15.05
Shares Outstanding 2.49B
Shares Floating 2.22B
Shares Outstanding 2.49B
Shares Floating 2.22B
Percent Insiders 1.77
Percent Institutions 10.14

Icon representing Upturn AI-generated SWOT analysis summary Upturn AI Summary

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Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

About Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

Exchange NYSE
Headquarters -
IPO Launch date 2014-09-19
CEO, Head of Core E-Commerce Business & Director Mr. Yongming Wu
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Internet Retail
Full time employees 132165
Full time employees 132165

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through the Alibaba China E-Commerce Group, Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and All Others segments. The Alibaba China E-commerce Group segment operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Taobao Instant Commerce, a local services and on-demand delivery platform; 1688.com, a domestic wholesale marketplace; and Xianyu, a consumer-to-consumer community and marketplace for idle goods. Its Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group segment includes AliExpress, a global e-commerce platform; Trendyol, an e-commerce platform in Turkey; Lazada, an e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia; Daraz, an e-commerce platform in South Asia, primarily in Pakistan and Bangladesh; and Alibaba.com, an integrated international online wholesale marketplace. The Cloud Intelligence Group segment offers a suite of cloud services based on infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service. Its All Others segment comprises Amap, a provider of mobile digital maps, navigation, and real-time traffic information in China; Cainiao, which provides logistics solutions; Youku, an online long-form video platform in China; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Alibaba Health, a pharmaceutical and healthcare services platform. Alibaba Group Holding Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.