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VanEck Retail ETF(RTH)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for RTH
10/08/2026: RTH (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
The VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) offers focused exposure to the U.S. retail industry by tracking a market-cap-weighted index of major retailers. Its primary strength lies in its concentration in large-cap, established retail leaders, providing investors with a direct way to capitalize on trends in consumer spending and e-commerce. While it provides high liquidity and a transparent strategy, investors should be aware of the risks associated with sector concentration and sensitivity to consumer economic cycles. It is best suited for investors seeking a targeted thematic play rather than a core, diversified holding, and should be monitored for shifts in consumer spending and regulatory trends.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
ETF holdings, costs, diversification, valuation, risks, and market conditions provide supporting context about the fund.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | Retail giants included in the fund often exhibit consistent long-term growth driven by scale. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The fund's concentration in market leaders makes it sensitive to momentum in large-cap retail stocks during uptrends. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuations in the retail sector can be high, though some components may offer value opportunities. |
| Dividend/Income investor | Mixed fit | While some retail holdings pay dividends, the fund's primary focus is capital appreciation. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Sector-specific ETFs carry inherent volatility and concentration risks compared to diversified broad-market funds. |
Investor Profile
Ideal Investor Profile
The ideal investor is someone looking for targeted exposure to the U.S. retail sector and is comfortable with the volatility associated with concentrated sector bets.
Suitability
RTH is most suitable for long-term investors seeking to tilt their portfolio toward the retail sector or those who want to hedge specific thematic views.
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility | Medium / high | The retail sector is sensitive to cyclical consumer spending patterns and economic downturns. |
| Market risk | Medium / high | General market sell-offs typically impact retail stocks, which are often discretionary. |
| Concentration | High | The fund is heavily concentrated in a small number of large-cap retail companies. |
| Tracking/expense | Low | The fund maintains a reasonable expense ratio and effectively tracks its underlying index. |
| Liquidity | Low | Underlying holdings are generally high-volume, highly liquid stocks. |
| Business/sector quality | Medium | Structural shifts in how consumers shop impact the long-term viability of traditional retail models. |
Risk Analysis
Volatility
RTH historically demonstrates higher volatility than broader market indices like the S&P 500, characteristic of sector-specific equity funds.
Market Risk
The fund is subject to significant market risk as retail stocks often serve as a proxy for consumer health, making it susceptible to macro-economic cyclicality.
What the ETF Owns
| Exposure Type | Exposure | Weight (%) | Retail Investor Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single stock | Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) | 20 | Amazon serves as a dominant holding due to its significant market share in e-commerce and cloud services. |
| Single stock | The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) | 10 | Home Depot provides exposure to the home improvement retail segment, a core pillar of the broader retail index. |
| Single stock | Walmart Inc. (WMT) | 9 | Walmart is a key defensive component reflecting strength in broadline and grocery retail. |
| Single stock | Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) | 8 | Costco represents a stable, membership-based retail model that typically exhibits consistent performance. |
| Sector | Other Retail and Consumer Discretionary Equities | 53 | These holdings provide diversified exposure to specialty retail, apparel, and hardware segments. |
Price Behavior
Flat / Range-Bound
The stock price has been trading within a narrow range with minimal directional movement.
Very Smooth
The stock has followed a highly orderly price path with minimal short-term disruption.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type ETF | Historic Profit 14.02% | Avg. Invested days 60 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | ETF Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/08/2026 |
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