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ALMS 
Alumis Inc (ALMS)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
11/13/2025: ALMS (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Upturn Star Rating
Not Recommended Performance
These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.
Number of Analysts
6 Analysts rated it
Limited analyst coverage, niche firm, research info may be scarce.
1 Year Target Price $19
1 Year Target Price $19
| 4 | Strong Buy |
| 2 | Buy |
| 0 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -45.54% | Avg. Invested days 22 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/13/2025 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 549.46M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 0.16 | 1Y Target Price 19 |
Price to earnings Ratio 0.16 | 1Y Target Price 19 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 6 | Beta - | 52 Weeks Range 2.76 - 10.49 | Updated Date 11/14/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 2.76 - 10.49 | Updated Date 11/14/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 33.18 |
Earnings Date
Report Date 2025-11-12 | When - | Estimate -1 | Actual -1.06 |
Profitability
Profit Margin - | Operating Margin (TTM) -4532.6% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) -59.84% | Return on Equity (TTM) -66.35% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 0.16 | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 101914514 | Price to Sales(TTM) 27.4 |
Enterprise Value 101914514 | Price to Sales(TTM) 27.4 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 5.08 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 96879394 | Shares Floating 71049902 |
Shares Outstanding 96879394 | Shares Floating 71049902 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.83 | Percent Institutions 82.26 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Alumis Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
Alumis Inc., founded in 2021, is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing oral therapies for autoimmune diseases. It was established to address the unmet needs in immune-mediated diseases. A major milestone includes raising substantial venture capital funding to advance its pipeline. Alumis acquired Esker Bio in January 2024.
Core Business Areas
- Drug Development: Focuses on the research and development of new oral therapies targeting autoimmune and inflammatory conditions.
- Clinical Trials: Manages and executes clinical trials to assess the safety and efficacy of its drug candidates.
- Partnerships: Collaborates with other pharmaceutical and biotech companies to accelerate drug development and commercialization.
Leadership and Structure
The leadership team consists of Troy Barman, Ph.D. (Chief Executive Officer) and members with extensive experience in drug development and autoimmune disease research. The organizational structure is based on research, clinical development, and corporate operations.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- ESK-001: An oral TYK2 inhibitor being developed for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and other autoimmune diseases. The drug has shown encouraging phase 1 results. Competing oral TYK2 inhibitors are being developed by Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) and Takeda (TAK).
- A062: an oral small molecule drug for IL-17.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The autoimmune disease market is experiencing significant growth, driven by an aging population, increased awareness, and advancements in diagnostic and therapeutic options. There is a high demand for novel, oral therapies with improved efficacy and safety profiles.
Positioning
Alumis Inc. is positioned as an innovator in the oral autoimmune therapy space, focusing on differentiated mechanisms of action and patient convenience. Its competitive advantage lies in its novel pipeline of oral TYK2 inhibitors and commitment to addressing unmet needs in specific autoimmune indications.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for autoimmune disease therapies is estimated to be over $100 billion annually. Alumis is targeting a specific subset of this market, focusing on SLE and other key inflammatory diseases. The potential market share is substantial as the number of patients is very high. This could place them in the billion-dollar range.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Experienced leadership team
- Novel oral TYK2 inhibitor pipeline
- Strong financial backing from venture capital
- Promising preclinical and clinical data
Weaknesses
- Early-stage company with limited commercialization experience
- High dependence on clinical trial success
- Limited product portfolio
- Intense competition from established pharmaceutical companies
Opportunities
- Expanding pipeline to additional autoimmune indications
- Potential for strategic partnerships and collaborations
- Acquisition by larger pharmaceutical companies
- Positive clinical trial results leading to regulatory approval and market launch
Threats
- Clinical trial failures
- Regulatory hurdles and delays
- Competition from biosimilars and generic drugs
- Changes in reimbursement policies
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- BMY
- TAK
- LLY
Competitive Landscape
Alumis has a novel approach to its product pipeline that gives it a leading edge over the other players. However, its lack of marketing strategies makes it harder to find its customer base.
Major Acquisitions
Esker Bio
- Year: 2024
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 0
- Strategic Rationale: Consolidated pipeline and strengthened focus on oral autoimmune therapies.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: The company's growth is based on preclinical to clinical trial progression. Currently, growth is measured by raising funds and acheiving trial success.
Future Projections: Future growth depends on successful clinical trial outcomes and regulatory approvals. Analyst estimates are currently unavailable.
Recent Initiatives: Acquisition of Esker Bio, advancement of ESK-001 into Phase 2 clinical trials.
Summary
Alumis Inc. is a promising, but high-risk, early-stage biopharmaceutical company with a focus on oral therapies for autoimmune diseases. The company's strengths lie in its experienced leadership team and novel oral TYK2 inhibitor pipeline, but it faces the challenges of clinical trial success and competition from larger companies. Success of Phase 2 trials will prove whether or not it will be acquired by a major player in the market. Keep a look out for financial risks as well.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company Website
- Press Releases
- Industry Reports
- Venture Capital News
- ClinicalTrials.gov
Disclaimers:
This analysis is based on publicly available information and analyst estimates, which are subject to change. This is not financial advice.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Alumis Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters South San Francisco, CA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2024-06-28 | President, CEO & Chairman Mr. Martin Babler Ph.D. | ||
Sector Healthcare | Industry Biotechnology | Full time employees 225 | Website https://www.alumis.com |
Full time employees 225 | Website https://www.alumis.com | ||
Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. The company's clinical asset comprises ESK-001, an allosteric tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. It also develops interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) to address immune dysfunction. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
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