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Upturn AI Summary - About
Alumis Inc(ALMS)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ALMS
11/06/2026: ALMS (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Alumis Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing targeted oral therapies for immune-mediated diseases. Its primary asset, ESK-001, is a selective TYK2 inhibitor aimed at addressing significant needs in conditions like plaque psoriasis. While the company's precision discovery platform and strong financial backing present a compelling growth opportunity, investors face substantial risks related to clinical trial outcomes, intense competition from established pharmaceutical leaders, and long-term capital needs. This stock is best suited for growth-oriented investors who can tolerate high volatility. Key developments to monitor include upcoming clinical trial data readouts and potential strategic partnerships that could provide non-dilutive validation for its drug pipeline.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers high growth potential linked to clinical success but carries extreme risk. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | This style is conditional on sustained positive clinical news and price action. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | Valuation is difficult to assign given the lack of revenue or near-term profit. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay dividends and focuses entirely on R&D. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The company's clinical-stage nature inherently carries high volatility and risk. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Clinical-stage biotech stocks are highly sensitive to trial results and market sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | High | Valuation relies heavily on future probability-weighted cash flows from unproven drugs. |
| Competition risk (immunology market) | Medium / high | Large incumbents have established therapies and deep market access. |
| Business quality | Medium | The company is at a critical juncture in testing its scientific thesis. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should not expect any income from this holding. |
| Execution risk | High | Success depends entirely on the outcome of complex and costly clinical trials. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 34.24% | Avg. Invested days 25 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 780.49M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 31.12 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 31.12 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.0M shares | Beta -0.27 | 52 Weeks Range 4.58 - 31.35 | Updated Date 11/07/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 4.58 - 31.35 | Updated Date 11/07/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -3.86 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Clinical Development | Researching and developing novel oral drugs for immune-mediated diseases. | The company currently makes no revenue and burns cash to fund research. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE - | Enterprise Value 315.08M | Price to Sales(TTM) 105.5 |
Enterprise Value 315.08M | Price to Sales(TTM) 105.5 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 42.59 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 129.44M | Shares Floating 91.34M |
Shares Outstanding 129.44M | Shares Floating 91.34M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.52 | Percent Institutions 94.26 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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