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Upturn AI Summary - About
Aemetis Inc(AMTX)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AMTX
11/09/2026: AMTX (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Aemetis Inc is a developer of renewable natural gas and renewable fuels focused on the California market. Its primary strength lies in its ability to convert dairy waste into high-value, carbon-negative fuel, benefiting from strong state regulatory support. The core growth story centers on the scaling of its carbon-zero infrastructure and future production of sustainable aviation fuel. However, the company faces significant execution risks, high debt levels, and intense competition from major energy firms. Aemetis may best suit growth-oriented investors with a high risk tolerance, and key developments to monitor include project completion timelines and the stability of LCFS environmental credit pricing.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Aemetis offers potential for high growth in renewable fuels, but the execution risk on major capital projects remains substantial. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | The stock is highly volatile and reacts strongly to project updates, making it suitable only during periods of confirmed positive technical momentum. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The company's lack of consistent earnings and high debt levels make it a poor fit for traditional value investing criteria. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Aemetis does not pay a dividend and requires all available cash to fund ongoing capital projects. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The company's high price volatility and speculative business model present significant risk for conservative portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock experiences significant price swings due to its small market capitalization and speculative nature. |
| Valuation risk | High | Investors often price in future success of projects that are not yet fully operational, creating downside risk if milestones are missed. |
| Competition risk (Energy majors) | High | Large energy majors have vast capital and infrastructure to out-compete Aemetis in the renewable fuels space. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the technology and environmental mission are sound, the financial foundation remains fragile and debt-heavy. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company provides no yield, making it unsuitable for income-focused investors. |
| Execution risk | High | The company's future depends on successfully scaling complex infrastructure projects on time and within budget. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -33.25% | Avg. Invested days 21 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 118.42M USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 13.38 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 13.38 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.4M shares | Beta 1.87 | 52 Weeks Range 1.11 - 3.80 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 1.11 - 3.80 | Updated Date 11/08/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.41 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Renewable Natural Gas | Sale of biogas and environmental credits generated from dairy waste processing. | This segment aims to turn waste into revenue through regulatory credits and fuel sales. |
| Ethanol Production | Production and sale of high-grade fuel ethanol and animal feed byproducts. | This is the company's traditional baseline revenue generator. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 58.82 | Enterprise Value 550.45M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.46 |
Enterprise Value 550.45M | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.46 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.12 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 21.46 | Shares Outstanding 73.10M | Shares Floating 68.09M |
Shares Outstanding 73.10M | Shares Floating 68.09M | ||
Percent Insiders 6.95 | Percent Institutions 25.27 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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