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Upturn AI Summary - About
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc(ARI)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for ARI
10/23/2026: ARI (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT that focuses on originating and investing in senior secured loans for commercial properties. The company leverages its relationship with Apollo Global Management to access complex deal flow, which has historically been a core strength. However, the stock faces significant headwinds from its exposure to the struggling office property sector and the inherent risks of a leveraged debt portfolio. It may suit income-oriented investors seeking high yields, though they must weigh these payouts against the risks of credit impairments. Key developments to monitor include office loan modifications and changes in general CRE market liquidity.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The company is primarily an income-oriented vehicle rather than a capital-appreciation play. |
| Momentum investor | Weak fit | The stock often exhibits high sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts in CRE, making it a challenging play for short-term momentum. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | While the stock may trade at a discount to book value, the underlying asset risk requires careful evaluation of potential impairments. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | ARI is designed for income generation, though investors must monitor payout sustainability closely. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The company involves significant leverage and credit risk, which are inappropriate for low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is highly reactive to interest rate changes and concerns regarding the office sector. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Accurately valuing commercial debt in an illiquid market involves significant estimation risk. |
| Competition risk (CRE lending) | Medium | Competition from well-capitalized private credit and other REITs can compress spreads. |
| Business quality | Medium | As an externally managed REIT, the business quality is tied to the management company's decisions. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | Dividend sustainability depends entirely on the ability to collect interest and minimize credit losses. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully modifying and resolving distressed loans is critical to maintaining value. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Extreme Price Shocks
The stock has experienced exceptionally large and disruptive price movements during the period.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -8.28% | Avg. Invested days 46 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 825.25M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 8.03 | 1Y Target Price 8 |
Price to earnings Ratio 8.03 | 1Y Target Price 8 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.5M shares | Beta 1.48 | 52 Weeks Range 3.74 - 7.10 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 3.74 - 7.10 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 15.87% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.8 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial Real Estate Lending | Interest income from senior mortgages and mezzanine loans, and origination fees. | The company acts as a bank for commercial property owners, earning the difference between interest received from borrowers and interest paid to lenders. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 8.03 | Forward PE 15.53 | Enterprise Value -44.86M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.32 |
Enterprise Value -44.86M | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.32 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 34.29 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 128.54M | Shares Floating 102.04M |
Shares Outstanding 128.54M | Shares Floating 102.04M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.57 | Percent Institutions 82.91 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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