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ARI 
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
12/19/2025: ARI (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Upturn Star Rating
Not Recommended Performance
These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.
Number of Analysts
6 Analysts rated it
Limited analyst coverage, niche firm, research info may be scarce.
1 Year Target Price $10.79
1 Year Target Price $10.79
| 1 | Strong Buy |
| 1 | Buy |
| 3 | Hold |
| 1 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -2.7% | Avg. Invested days 45 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 12/19/2025 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.39B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 11.4 | 1Y Target Price 10.79 |
Price to earnings Ratio 11.4 | 1Y Target Price 10.79 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 6 | Beta 1.57 | 52 Weeks Range 7.32 - 10.84 | Updated Date 12/20/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 7.32 - 10.84 | Updated Date 12/20/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 9.88% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.88 |
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 51.31% | Operating Margin (TTM) 44.81% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.48% | Return on Equity (TTM) 7.41% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 11.4 | Forward PE 15.53 | Enterprise Value 8703095808 | Price to Sales(TTM) 5.17 |
Enterprise Value 8703095808 | Price to Sales(TTM) 5.17 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 32.36 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 138943831 | Shares Floating 129961112 |
Shares Outstanding 138943831 | Shares Floating 129961112 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.61 | Percent Institutions 69.08 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) was formed in 2008 and is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily invests in senior mortgages, mezzanine loans, and other debt investments. It is externally managed by an affiliate of Apollo Global Management, LLC, a global alternative investment manager. ARI has evolved by strategically acquiring and originating a portfolio of commercial real estate-related debt investments.
Core Business Areas
- Commercial Real Estate Debt Investments: ARI's core business involves originating and acquiring a diverse portfolio of credit-sensitive real estate investments. These include senior mortgages, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, and other structured debt investments secured by commercial real estate properties.
- Portfolio Management: The company actively manages its investment portfolio, seeking to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns through active credit selection, loan origination, and portfolio monitoring.
Leadership and Structure
ARI is externally managed by an affiliate of Apollo Global Management, LLC. Key leadership positions are held by executives with extensive experience in real estate finance and investment management. The organizational structure is integrated with the asset management capabilities of Apollo Global Management.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Senior Mortgages: ARI originates and acquires senior mortgage loans secured by commercial real estate properties across various property types and geographic locations. These are typically first-lien loans, representing the least risky position in the capital stack. Competitors include other CRE debt funds, life insurance companies, and CMBS lenders.
- Mezzanine Loans and Preferred Equity: The company also invests in mezzanine loans and preferred equity, which are subordinate to senior mortgages but rank above common equity. These investments offer higher potential yields but carry greater risk. Competitors include other private debt funds and distressed debt investors.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The commercial real estate debt market is influenced by interest rate environments, economic growth, property fundamentals, and capital availability. The market is characterized by a wide range of participants, from institutional lenders to specialized debt funds. Increased demand for flexible financing solutions and opportunities in specific property sectors are key trends.
Positioning
ARI is positioned as a significant player in the commercial real estate debt market, leveraging the origination and asset management capabilities of Apollo Global Management. Its competitive advantages include access to a deep pool of capital, extensive market knowledge, and a diversified investment strategy. The company benefits from its ability to execute complex transactions and adapt to changing market conditions.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for commercial real estate debt is substantial, encompassing trillions of dollars globally. ARI's TAM is focused on the North American and European commercial real estate debt markets. The company's positioning within this TAM is as a provider of flexible, structured debt solutions, competing for a significant portion of the financing needs of real estate sponsors and owners.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong affiliation with Apollo Global Management, providing access to capital and expertise.
- Diversified portfolio of debt investments across various property types and geographies.
- Experienced management team with deep industry knowledge.
- Ability to originate and acquire a wide range of debt instruments.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on external manager for operations and strategy.
- Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations and economic downturns.
- Potential for asset impairments given the nature of debt investments.
- Liquidity constraints inherent in commercial real estate debt.
Opportunities
- Growing demand for private credit in commercial real estate.
- Potential for attractive risk-adjusted returns in certain market segments.
- Expansion into new geographic markets or property types.
- Leveraging Apollo's broader platform for deal sourcing and capital raising.
Threats
- Rising interest rates impacting borrowing costs and property valuations.
- Economic recession leading to increased defaults and reduced transaction volumes.
- Increased competition from other debt funds and traditional lenders.
- Regulatory changes impacting real estate finance.
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT)
- Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD)
- KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KKR)
- Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR)
Competitive Landscape
ARI competes with a range of public and private real estate debt investors. Its advantages include its strong sponsor relationship, diversified portfolio, and flexible investment approach. Disadvantages may stem from its reliance on external management and potential liquidity challenges compared to larger, more diversified financial institutions.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: ARI's growth trajectory has been characterized by the expansion of its debt investment portfolio, driven by market opportunities and its investment strategy. Growth in assets under management and net income would indicate successful portfolio expansion and management. (Specific historical growth data requires up-to-date financial reports.)
Future Projections: Future growth projections are typically based on analyst estimates, which consider market outlook, interest rate forecasts, and the company's ability to originate and acquire new investments. These projections are subject to inherent market uncertainties. (Specific future projections require current analyst reports.)
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives may include strategic portfolio acquisitions, expansion into new real estate debt strategies, or efforts to optimize its capital structure. (Specific recent initiatives require up-to-date company announcements and investor relations information.)
Summary
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. is a well-established player in the commercial real estate debt market, benefiting from its strong affiliation with Apollo Global Management. Its diversified portfolio of senior mortgages and mezzanine loans positions it to capitalize on market opportunities. However, the company faces risks from interest rate volatility and economic downturns, requiring prudent risk management and strategic adaptation to maintain its strong market position.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company investor relations filings (10-K, 10-Q)
- Financial news and analysis websites
- Market data providers
Disclaimers:
This JSON output is generated based on publicly available information and financial analysis. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters New York, NY, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2009-09-24 | President, CEO & Director Mr. Stuart A. Rothstein CPA | ||
Sector Real Estate | Industry REIT - Mortgage | Full time employees - | Website https://www.apollocref.com |
Full time employees - | Website https://www.apollocref.com | ||
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.
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