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ARI logo ARI
Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
ARI logo

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)

Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
$9.81
Last Close (24-hour delay)
Profit since last BUY0.1%
upturn advisory
Consider higher Upturn Star rating
BUY since 33 days
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)​
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)​
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • Pass (Skip investing)
Upturn Stock infoUpturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
*as per simulation
(see disclosures)
Time period over
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Upturn Advisory Summary

06/27/2025: ARI (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.

Upturn Star Rating

ratingratingratingratingrating

Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

Number of Analysts

rating

6 Analysts rated it

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, frequently surpass the market, reflecting reliable and trustworthy advice.

Year Target Price $9.8

Year Target Price $9.8

Analyst’s Price TargetsFor last 52 week
$9.8Target price
Low$7.7
Current$9.81
high$10.32

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -10.19%
Avg. Invested days 36
Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating
Upturn Star Rating Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 3.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 06/27/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 1.36B USD
Price to earnings Ratio -
1Y Target Price 10
Price to earnings Ratio -
1Y Target Price 10
Volume (30-day avg) -
Beta 1.54
52 Weeks Range 7.70 - 10.32
Updated Date 06/29/2025
52 Weeks Range 7.70 - 10.32
Updated Date 06/29/2025
Dividends yield (FY) 10.19%
Basic EPS (TTM) -0.05

Earnings Date

Report Date -
When -
Estimate -
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 3.93%
Operating Margin (TTM) 37.81%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 0.12%
Return on Equity (TTM) 0.56%

Valuation

Trailing PE -
Forward PE 15.53
Enterprise Value 7995482112
Price to Sales(TTM) 4.92
Enterprise Value 7995482112
Price to Sales(TTM) 4.92
Enterprise Value to Revenue 45.54
Enterprise Value to EBITDA -
Shares Outstanding 138944000
Shares Floating 129854126
Shares Outstanding 138944000
Shares Floating 129854126
Percent Insiders 0.68
Percent Institutions 67.76

Analyst Ratings

Rating 3.33
Target Price 9.8
Buy 1
Strong Buy 1
Buy 1
Strong Buy 1
Hold 3
Sell 1
Strong Sell -
Strong Sell -

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) was founded in 2009. It is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on originating, investing in, and managing commercial real estate first mortgage loans and subordinate financings.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Commercial Real Estate Lending: Originates, acquires, and manages commercial real estate debt, including first mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, and other subordinate financings.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

The company is led by Stuart Rothstein, Chief Executive Officer. It operates as a subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, Inc.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • First Mortgage Loans: ARI's primary offering is first mortgage loans on commercial properties. Market share data varies but estimates can be found in publicly available filings and real estate reports. Competitors include Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), Starwood Property Trust (STWD) and Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE).
  • Subordinate Financings: Provides mezzanine loans and other subordinate debt financing. Market share data varies but estimates can be found in publicly available filings and real estate reports. Competitors include Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), Starwood Property Trust (STWD) and Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE).

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The commercial real estate lending market is influenced by interest rates, economic growth, and property valuations. Increasing interest rates and economic uncertainty impact the sector.

Positioning

ARI is a commercial mortgage REIT managed by Apollo Global Management. This affiliation gives it access to deal flow and capital. However, it's more vulnerable to rising interest rates with a large portfolio of floating rate mortgages.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The commercial real estate debt market is estimated in the trillions of dollars. ARI is a small player relative to the TAM, holding a small but still significant slice. Rising interest rates are shrinking this TAM.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Experienced management team
  • Access to Apollo Global Management's platform
  • Diversified loan portfolio
  • Established market presence

Weaknesses

  • Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations
  • Reliance on external management
  • Volatility of earnings
  • Concentrated investment in specific sectors

Opportunities

  • Growing demand for commercial real estate financing
  • Expansion into new markets
  • Strategic acquisitions
  • Increased fee income

Threats

  • Economic downturn
  • Rising interest rates
  • Increased competition
  • Regulatory changes

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • BXMT
  • STWD
  • ACRE

Competitive Landscape

ARI's affiliation with Apollo provides an advantage in sourcing deals. However, it competes with larger REITs like BXMT and STWD. Its size is a disadvantage.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: Historical growth is linked to commercial real estate market conditions. Check SEC filings to view historical growth data.

Future Projections: Analyst projections vary based on economic outlook. Look at recent analyst reports and earnings calls for future projections.

Recent Initiatives: ARI is focused on managing its existing portfolio and selectively originating new loans. Review company releases for specific initiatives.

Summary

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) operates in a volatile market sensitive to interest rate changes. Its relationship with Apollo Global Management is a competitive advantage, but rising interest rates, floating rate mortgages, and the potential for economic downturn present significant risks. Close monitoring of sector trends and ARI's strategic responses are essential for investors.

Peer Comparison

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • SEC Filings
  • Company Investor Relations
  • Market Analysis Reports
  • Analyst Estimates

Disclaimers:

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be based on individual due diligence and consultation with a qualified financial advisor. Market Share information is estimates and may not be precise.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc

Exchange NYSE
Headquaters New York, NY, United States
IPO Launch date 2009-09-24
President, CEO & Director Mr. Stuart A. Rothstein CPA
Sector Real Estate
Industry REIT - Mortgage
Full time employees -
Full time employees -

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.