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Upturn AI Summary - About
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc(AMR)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AMR
10/20/2026: AMR (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a pure-play producer of high-grade metallurgical coal, serving the global steelmaking market. Its primary strengths lie in its low-cost mining operations and disciplined capital return program, which has benefited shareholders during cycles of strong commodity prices. The investment case rests on the ongoing demand for coal in blast furnace steel production, though it faces risks from the gradual industry shift toward cleaner technologies and inherent commodity price volatility. The stock is best suited for cyclical investors comfortable with high sensitivity to global economic trends. Interested investors should monitor steel demand trends and coal price fluctuations as key developments.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely cyclical rather than secular, making it a difficult fit for traditional growth investors. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often exhibits high beta and momentum during coal commodity price upswings. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at low P/E multiples, providing value potential during periods of strong cash flow. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividend payouts are variable and tied to cycle performance, which may not suit income-focused investors needing stability. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The commodity-linked price volatility is significant and unsuitable for risk-averse portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Earnings are directly tied to volatile global steelmaking coal prices. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment toward fossil fuels can lead to suppressed valuation multiples despite strong earnings. |
| Competition risk (Commodity market share) | Medium | Competition from international coal producers and alternative steelmaking technology threatens long-term demand. |
| Business quality | Medium | While operationally strong, the business is dependent on finite natural resources. |
| Dividend income | Medium / high | The variable dividend policy means income can fluctuate significantly based on market conditions. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Maintaining underground mining safety and productivity in a challenging geological environment is essential. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -35.82% | Avg. Invested days 23 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/20/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 2.03B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 178.33 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 178.33 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 294.7K shares | Beta 0.87 | 52 Weeks Range 133.64 - 253.82 | Updated Date 10/19/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 133.64 - 253.82 | Updated Date 10/19/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) -3.59 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Metallurgical Coal | Mining, processing, and exporting coking coal used for global steel manufacturing. | AMR makes most of its money selling the coal that steel companies turn into metal for construction and infrastructure. |
| Geography (Exports) | Significant export volume to Asia, Europe, and South America. | The company relies heavily on international steel demand, making its success tied to global economic health. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 2.66 | Enterprise Value 1.96B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.98 |
Enterprise Value 1.96B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.98 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.95 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 19.91 | Shares Outstanding 12.68M | Shares Floating 10.73M |
Shares Outstanding 12.68M | Shares Floating 10.73M | ||
Percent Insiders 29.98 | Percent Institutions 90.09 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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