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Upturn AI Summary - About
Commerce Bancshares Inc(CBSH)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CBSH
11/10/2026: CBSH (2-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Commerce Bancshares is a well-established regional bank holding company known for its conservative financial management and consistent dividend performance. The company has a leading position in its core Midwest markets, supported by a diversified revenue base of banking, wealth management, and treasury services. Its primary investment story centers on steady, long-term growth and reliable income generation for shareholders. Investors should monitor risks related to interest rate volatility, regional economic health, and ongoing competition from larger national banks and fintech platforms. This stock is best suited for income-focused and value-oriented investors who prioritize fundamental stability over high-growth speculative returns.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company focuses more on steady, conservative growth rather than rapid, aggressive expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum appeal is generally limited by the bank's stable, low-volatility business model, unless triggered by favorable interest rate cycles. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock is often viewed by value investors as a well-managed, stable regional banking institution with solid fundamentals. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company has a long history of consistent dividend growth and is highly suitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | Its conservative balance sheet and long-term operating history make it a lower-volatility option within the regional banking sector. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Bank stocks can experience significant swings based on interest rate expectations and economic cycle shifts. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Trading premiums for high-quality regional banks can occasionally lead to valuation sensitivity. |
| Competition risk (banking) | Medium / high | Persistent competition from national banks and fintechs challenges traditional fee-based models. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company maintains high asset quality and conservative underwriting standards. |
| Dividend income | Strong | A decades-long history of dividend growth provides high confidence for income investors. |
| Execution risk | Low | Management has a proven track record of consistent performance and disciplined operations. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 9.14% | Avg. Invested days 42 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  2.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/10/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 7.93B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 13.5 | 1Y Target Price 63.94 |
Price to earnings Ratio 13.5 | 1Y Target Price 63.94 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 973.0K shares | Beta 0.6 | 52 Weeks Range 46.52 - 60.63 | Updated Date 11/10/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 46.52 - 60.63 | Updated Date 11/10/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.97% | Basic EPS (TTM) 4.15 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income | Interest earned on loans and securities minus interest paid on deposits. | This is the core profit engine, highly dependent on the difference between loan and deposit rates. |
| Non-Interest Income | Service charges, trust fees, brokerage commissions, and card processing fees. | This provides essential revenue diversity beyond traditional lending activities. |
| Geographic Exposure | Primarily Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado. | The bank's performance is tied closely to the economic health of the Midwest region. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-20 | When Before Market | Estimate 1.07 | Actual 1.08 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 31.36% | Operating Margin (TTM) 43.15% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.8% | Return on Equity (TTM) 15.12% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 13.5 | Forward PE 12.09 | Enterprise Value 7.06B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.17 |
Enterprise Value 7.06B | Price to Sales(TTM) 4.17 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.43 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 141.56M | Shares Floating 128.64M |
Shares Outstanding 141.56M | Shares Floating 128.64M | ||
Percent Insiders 2.52 | Percent Institutions 80.42 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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