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Upturn AI Summary - About
Century Aluminum Company(CENX)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CENX
10/23/2026: CENX (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Century Aluminum Company is a primary U.S. producer of aluminum, serving industrial, automotive, and packaging markets. The company benefits from its domestic manufacturing footprint and a recent strategic pivot toward higher-margin value-added alloy products. Its primary growth opportunity lies in the rising demand for lightweight materials in electric vehicles, though it faces risks from significant energy cost exposure and global aluminum price volatility. As a cyclical commodity-based stock, Century is best suited for investors comfortable with high volatility and market-driven price swings. Investors should monitor power contract renewals and developments in low-carbon production processes, as these are critical to its long-term competitive standing.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers potential for cyclical growth but is heavily dependent on commodity market factors. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often exhibits high sensitivity to metal price rallies, attracting momentum-based trading interest. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation fluctuates significantly with market cycles, requiring careful entry timing. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not provide a reliable dividend stream to income-focused investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The stock's high volatility makes it unsuitable for those prioritizing capital preservation. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Aluminum price swings directly dictate profit margins. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | The stock price is often driven more by sentiment than stable book value. |
| Competition risk | High | Global metal producers exert constant pressure on market share and pricing. |
| Business quality | Medium | The capital-intensive nature of smelting results in varying operational efficiencies. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should not rely on the company for regular cash distributions. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Successful operation depends on complex logistics and power supply reliability. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 217.35% | Avg. Invested days 47 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 3.11B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 5.43 | 1Y Target Price 60.2 |
Price to earnings Ratio 5.43 | 1Y Target Price 60.2 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.0M shares | Beta 2.08 | 52 Weeks Range 25.40 - 70.43 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 25.40 - 70.43 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 5.79 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Aluminum Production | Standard-grade aluminum sales to industrial, automotive, and packaging customers. | The company makes money by turning raw materials into metal and selling it at market-based prices. |
| Value-Added Products | Specialty alloys and shapes designed for specific technical applications. | Selling customized, higher-margin products helps the company capture value beyond simple commodity prices. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 5.43 | Forward PE 6.48 | Enterprise Value 3.23B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.17 |
Enterprise Value 3.23B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.17 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.33 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 14.03 | Shares Outstanding 98.99M | Shares Floating 68.61M |
Shares Outstanding 98.99M | Shares Floating 68.61M | ||
Percent Insiders 30.89 | Percent Institutions 77.94 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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