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Alcoa Corp (AA)



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Upturn Advisory Summary
01/21/2025: AA (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -23.11% | Avg. Invested days 33 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance ![]() | Stock Returns Performance ![]() |
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Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 6.49B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 6.51 | 1Y Target Price 36.62 |
Price to earnings Ratio 6.51 | 1Y Target Price 36.62 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4295244 | Beta 2.28 | 52 Weeks Range 21.53 - 47.62 | Updated Date 04/23/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 21.53 - 47.62 | Updated Date 04/23/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.64% | Basic EPS (TTM) 3.85 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 6.79% | Operating Margin (TTM) 20.78% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 7.18% | Return on Equity (TTM) 15.35% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 6.51 | Forward PE 7.75 | Enterprise Value 7742094314 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.51 |
Enterprise Value 7742094314 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.51 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.61 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 3.7 | Shares Outstanding 258884992 | Shares Floating 256895264 |
Shares Outstanding 258884992 | Shares Floating 256895264 | ||
Percent Insiders 0.43 | Percent Institutions 76.47 |
Analyst Ratings
Rating 4.21 | Target Price 48.43 | Buy 1 | Strong Buy 8 |
Buy 1 | Strong Buy 8 | ||
Hold 5 | Sell - | Strong Sell - | |
Strong Sell - |
Upturn AI SWOT
Alcoa Corp

Company Overview
History and Background
Alcoa Corp was founded in 1888 as the Pittsburgh Reduction Company, later renamed Aluminum Company of America (Alcoa). It pioneered the aluminum industry, developing key technologies and expanding globally. In 2016, Alcoa split into two separate entities: Alcoa Corp (upstream operations) and Arconic (downstream engineered products).
Core Business Areas
- Bauxite: Mining of bauxite ore, the primary raw material for aluminum production.
- Alumina: Refining bauxite into alumina, an intermediate product used in aluminum smelting.
- Aluminum: Smelting alumina into primary aluminum, including smelting, casting, and rolling. Sale of aluminum products such as ingot and slab.
Leadership and Structure
Roy C. Harvey is the President and CEO. Alcoa operates with a functional organizational structure, dividing its operations into bauxite, alumina, and aluminum segments.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Bauxite: Alcoa is a major bauxite producer, with significant mining operations in several countries. While specific market share data is variable due to regional differences in pricing and extraction cost, they are in the top three bauxite producers globally. Competitors include Rio Tinto and BHP.
- Alumina: Alumina is crucial for aluminum production. Alcoa is one of the worldu2019s largest alumina producers. While market share data shifts, they maintain a competitive position with large refineries worldwide. Competitors include Rio Tinto and South32.
- Primary Aluminum: Alcoa produces primary aluminum in various forms (ingot, billet, slab). Market share fluctuates due to pricing and global demand, but is typically in the top 10. Competitors include Rio Tinto, Rusal, and China Hongqiao Group.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The aluminum industry is cyclical and heavily influenced by global economic growth, demand from key sectors (automotive, construction, packaging), and energy prices. There is also an increasing focus on sustainability and low-carbon aluminum production.
Positioning
Alcoa Corp is positioned as a vertically integrated aluminum producer, with operations spanning the entire value chain. This provides some cost control and supply chain security. Its competitive advantages include its bauxite reserves and some low-cost smelting assets.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The global aluminum market is valued at approximately $250 billion. Alcoa is positioned with a significant presence across the value chain, allowing them to address a sizable portion of this TAM. The overall aluminum market size will be affected by decarbonization initiatives and government subsidies.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Vertical Integration
- Low-Cost Bauxite Reserves
- Advanced Aluminum Production Technologies
- Strong Global Presence
Weaknesses
- Exposure to Cyclical Aluminum Prices
- High Energy Costs in Some Regions
- Legacy Liabilities (Pension and Environmental)
- Operational Disruptions
Opportunities
- Growing Demand for Aluminum in Electric Vehicles
- Increasing Focus on Sustainable Aluminum Production
- Potential for Strategic Acquisitions
- Development of New Aluminum Alloys and Applications
Threats
- Global Economic Slowdown
- Increased Aluminum Production Capacity in China
- Rising Energy Prices
- Trade Wars and Tariffs
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- RIO
- BHP
- AA
Competitive Landscape
Alcoa's competitive advantage lies in its integrated value chain and bauxite reserves. However, it faces challenges from lower-cost producers and cyclical aluminum prices.
Major Acquisitions
Alumina Espanola
- Year: 2024
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 225
- Strategic Rationale: Strengthen Alcoa's position in the alumina market, reducing dependence on outside alumina purchase
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Alcoa's historical growth has been cyclical, influenced by aluminum prices and global demand.
Future Projections: Future growth projections are based on analyst estimates which are subject to change based on industry conditions. Analysts projections should be reviewed for an outlook.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include investments in low-carbon aluminum production, operational efficiency improvements, and strategic partnerships.
Summary
Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company with strong bauxite reserves, but is exposed to volatile aluminum prices. Focus on operational improvements and growth in the EV and sustainable products can benefit its financials. Alcoa needs to manage energy costs and legacy liabilities. Alcoa's long-term success depends on its ability to navigate commodity cycles and adapt to industry trends.
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Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Alcoa Corp. SEC Filings
- Industry Reports
- Analyst Estimates
Disclaimers:
This analysis is based on publicly available information and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions and company performance can change.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Alcoa Corp
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters Pittsburgh, PA, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2016-11-01 | President, CEO & Director Mr. William F. Oplinger | ||
Sector Basic Materials | Industry Aluminum | Full time employees 13900 | Website https://www.alcoa.com |
Full time employees 13900 | Website https://www.alcoa.com |
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining; and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, other industrial markets, and traders. In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
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