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Upturn AI Summary - About
Alcoa Corp(AA)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for AA
11/06/2026: AA (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Alcoa Corp is a major player in the global aluminum industry, operating primarily as an upstream producer of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum. The company's main strengths lie in its vertically integrated asset base and significant economies of scale in raw material extraction. Its primary investment story centers on capitalizing on secular demand for lightweight, sustainable metals, though it remains highly sensitive to commodity price cycles. Key risks include intense energy costs and the inherent volatility of metal markets. The stock may best suit value or commodity-focused investors, and monitoring developments in decarbonization technology and global industrial demand is essential.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Alcoa's growth is tied to cyclical commodity demand rather than secular expansion, limiting typical growth profiles. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Momentum investors may favor Alcoa during commodity super-cycles when metal prices are trending upward. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Deep value investors may find interest in Alcoa during market troughs when assets are priced below replacement value. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividend reliability is influenced by the cyclicality of aluminum prices, making consistent payouts less predictable. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High sensitivity to commodity price volatility makes this stock unsuitable for conservative, low-risk portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Earnings are directly tethered to the fluctuating spot prices of alumina and aluminum. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Asset-heavy valuation is susceptible to re-rating during industry downturns. |
| Competition risk (Commodity producers) | Medium / high | Global producers often compete on cost, which can pressure margins in surplus markets. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business is capital-intensive with cyclical demand patterns. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Payouts may be suspended or reduced based on liquidity and commodity cycles. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Operational delays in mining or smelting efficiency can materially impact quarterly profitability. |
Price Behavior
Steep Decline
The stock price has dropped sharply with strong downward pressure.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 103.2% | Avg. Invested days 67 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 10.14B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 6.68 | 1Y Target Price 54.59 |
Price to earnings Ratio 6.68 | 1Y Target Price 54.59 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4.9M shares | Beta 1.84 | 52 Weeks Range 34.85 - 84.00 | Updated Date 11/05/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 34.85 - 84.00 | Updated Date 11/05/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.99% | Basic EPS (TTM) 5.75 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Bauxite Mining | Extraction and sale of bauxite ore to aluminum producers. | Selling the raw material essential for making aluminum. |
| Alumina Refining | Processing bauxite into alumina for use in smelting. | Producing the intermediate chemical product for aluminum manufacturing. |
| Aluminum Smelting | Conversion of alumina into primary aluminum metal products. | The final product stage where metal is sold to manufacturers. |
| Geography | Global operations across Australia, Brazil, North America, and Europe. | Revenue exposure is diversified globally, mitigating regional economic risks. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-15 | When After Market | Estimate 1.65 | Actual 1.82 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 10.68% | Operating Margin (TTM) 16.01% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 7.52% | Return on Equity (TTM) 20.58% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 6.68 | Forward PE 6.59 | Enterprise Value 10.84B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.71 |
Enterprise Value 10.84B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.71 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.76 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 4.47 | Shares Outstanding 263.97M | Shares Floating 262.87M |
Shares Outstanding 263.97M | Shares Floating 262.87M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.52 | Percent Institutions 85.17 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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