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Upturn AI Summary - About
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc(CGBD)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CGBD
10/09/2026: CGBD (1-star) is a SELL. SELL for 3 days. Simulated Profits (-3.88%). Updated daily EoD!
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc is a business development company focused on providing first-lien, senior secured loans to middle-market US companies. It leverages the extensive credit platform and deal-sourcing network of The Carlyle Group to build its portfolio. The primary investment appeal is its focus on generating stable income for shareholders, typically delivered through consistent dividend distributions. However, the company faces risks from competition in the private credit market, potential credit deterioration among its borrowers, and fluctuations in asset valuations. It best suits dividend-focused investors who understand the credit risks of middle-market lending and are prepared to monitor portfolio performance and interest rate trends.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | As a BDC, the primary focus is on income generation and capital preservation rather than capital appreciation. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum may be present during periods of credit cycle expansion, but the stock is generally less volatile than high-growth sectors. |
| Value investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Value investors often look at BDCs when they trade at a discount to their Net Asset Value. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The primary appeal of CGBD is its regular income distribution supported by its interest-yielding loan portfolio. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Credit risk and portfolio volatility associated with middle-market lending make this unsuitable for conservative income investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | BDC prices can fluctuate based on interest rate expectations and perceived credit risk in the middle market. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Changes in the valuation of private assets can cause the market price to deviate from the underlying Net Asset Value. |
| Competition risk (Private Credit) | High | Increased competition for deals can compress credit spreads and reduce prospective returns. |
| Business quality | Medium | The quality of the business depends heavily on the investment manager's ability to underwrite and manage portfolio risks. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are subject to the company's ability to maintain portfolio interest income and manage credit losses. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Failure to properly assess borrower creditworthiness can lead to non-accruals and permanent capital loss. |
Price Behavior
Flat / Range-Bound
The stock price has been trading within a narrow range with minimal directional movement.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -13.04% | Avg. Invested days 46 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 716.94M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 20.84 | 1Y Target Price 12.36 |
Price to earnings Ratio 20.84 | 1Y Target Price 12.36 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 431.6K shares | Beta 0.72 | 52 Weeks Range 9.59 - 11.74 | Updated Date 10/10/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 9.59 - 11.74 | Updated Date 10/10/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 14.71% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.5 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Senior Secured Lending | Interest income from floating-rate, first-lien loans issued to middle-market companies. | The company earns money by collecting interest payments from the businesses it lends to. |
| Geography (US) | Investment focus is primarily concentrated on US-based middle-market enterprises. | Performance is directly tied to the health of the broader United States business credit environment. |
Valuation
Trailing PE 20.84 | Forward PE 7.9 | Enterprise Value 1.99B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.76 |
Enterprise Value 1.99B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.76 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 42.58 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 22.63 | Shares Outstanding 68.80M | Shares Floating - |
Shares Outstanding 68.80M | Shares Floating - | ||
Percent Insiders 0.36 | Percent Institutions 40.65 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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