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Upturn AI Summary - About
Capital One Financial Corporation(COF)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for COF
10/28/2026: COF (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Capital One Financial Corporation is a prominent US-based financial services firm recognized for its technology-driven, data-centric approach to credit cards and consumer banking. The company has a leading position in the credit card market, benefiting from a well-known digital-first strategy that helps maintain competitive margins. Its primary investment story centers on the potential for massive scale through the proposed acquisition of Discover Financial Services. However, investors should note risks including exposure to subprime credit cycles, intense competition from fintech platforms, and complex regulatory execution. The stock may suit value-oriented investors who can tolerate volatility and are monitoring the long-term outcome of its integration initiatives.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | While the company has a strong growth history, it is now a mature firm sensitive to the economic cycle. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often trends strongly with the financial sector and consumer credit health. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | Capital One often trades at reasonable valuation multiples relative to its earnings potential and book value. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | It pays a steady dividend but is primarily sought for its growth and profitability profile. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The stock carries high price volatility due to its sensitivity to the credit cycle. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and changes in consumer spending. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing of the stock often fluctuates based on interest rate outlooks. |
| Competition risk (Digital Banking/Fintech) | Medium / high | Increasing competition from nimble fintech platforms threatens traditional banking margins. |
| Business quality | Strong | Capital One’s sophisticated data-driven franchise provides a distinct competitive advantage. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are reliable but not the primary driver of the investment thesis. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully integrating major acquisitions like Discover is critical for long-term value creation. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 37.46% | Avg. Invested days 56 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 124.81B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 12.47 | 1Y Target Price 255 |
Price to earnings Ratio 12.47 | 1Y Target Price 255 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.9M shares | Beta 1.04 | 52 Weeks Range 173.62 - 256.64 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 173.62 - 256.64 | Updated Date 10/28/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.58% | Basic EPS (TTM) 16.32 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Credit Cards | Interest income and interchange fees from consumer and small business cards. | This is the primary engine of the company, driven by consumer spending and lending. |
| Consumer Banking | Net interest margin from deposits, savings, and checking products. | This provides a stable, lower-cost source of funding for the company's lending activities. |
| Commercial Banking | Loans and treasury services to business clients. | This segment diversifies the company away from pure consumer reliance. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-20 | When After Market | Estimate 5.45 | Actual 6.69 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 22.23% | Operating Margin (TTM) 37.83% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.57% | Return on Equity (TTM) 9.39% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 12.47 | Forward PE 8.5 | Enterprise Value 127.67B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.55 |
Enterprise Value 127.67B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.55 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.76 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 613.48M | Shares Floating 592.87M |
Shares Outstanding 613.48M | Shares Floating 592.87M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.25 | Percent Institutions 90.98 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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