Traeger Inc logo

Traeger Inc(COOK)

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EXPLORE ADVISORIES AND THEIR HISTORY
QUALITY SIGNAL
1-STAR RATING
PASS
LAST CLOSE
$51.43
10/08/2026
(24-hour delay)

Advisory History & Simulated Performance *

*as per simulation (see disclosures)
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  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)
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Upturn Stock price based on last close iconStock price based on last close
Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Advisory Performance History (Simulated)Advisory Performance History info

Simulated performance—not actual client returns. Results depend on calculation assumptions and do not guarantee future outcomes. See Disclosures for methodology, assumptions, and limitations.

Upturn Advisory & Investor View for COOK

10/08/2026: COOK (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Traeger Inc is a consumer brand best known for inventing the wood pellet grill and operating a premium outdoor cooking ecosystem. The company benefits from a loyal customer base and a recurring revenue stream generated by its proprietary wood pellet fuel. Its primary growth story revolves around international expansion and integrating smart-cooking technology. However, the stock faces significant risks, including high sensitivity to discretionary spending and increasing competition from lower-priced rivals. It may best suit growth-oriented investors who monitor the company's ability to achieve consistent profitability and manage its debt profile in a fluctuating economic environment.

How to Read the Upturn Advisory

The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.

Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.

Investor Fit

Investor styleFitWhy
Growth investorMixed fitThe growth narrative is transitioning from rapid scale to sustainable profitability.
Momentum investorWeak fitThe stock has faced sustained downward pressure, lacking a positive momentum signal.
Value investorMixed fitCurrent valuation reflects deep discount but carries high execution risk.
Dividend investorWeak fitThe company does not pay a dividend and has no near-term plans for one.
Low-risk investorWeak fitThe company's small-cap status and market volatility present significant risks.

Risk Profile

Risk factorLevelWhy it matters
Price volatilityHighThe stock has exhibited high beta and sensitivity to macroeconomic trends.
Valuation riskMediumWhile the stock is cheaper than at IPO, valuation remains tied to optimistic long-term growth expectations.
Competition risk (Commoditization)HighMany private competitors are entering the pellet grill space, pressuring price points.
Business qualityMediumThe brand is strong, but the business faces cyclicality common in premium consumer goods.
Dividend incomeLow / noneThere is no income component to the investment.
Execution riskMedium / highThe company must successfully transition to consistent profitability while scaling new products.

Price Behavior

Rolling Over
PRICE PATH

Rolling Over

The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.

Highly Choppy
PRICE STABILITY

Highly Choppy

The stock has experienced frequent, large price swings that make its near-term movement less predictable.

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -38.62%
Avg. Invested days 24
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Advisory Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 10/08/2026

Upturn Scorecard

Upturn Star Rating

★★★★★
COOK receives a 3-star rating based on the available scored pillars. The rating is constrained by weak unit economics, soft quantitative characteristics, and weak price momentum.

Company Fundamentals

★★★★★
COOK has moderate overall fundamentals (3 stars), with moderate financial health, soft growth momentum, and strong ownership. In FY2025 versus FY2024, growth and ownership metrics are mixed: negative earnings growth (-238.7%), soft cash generation (FCF margin 2.3%), negative revenue growth (-7.4%).

Financial Health Rating

★★★★★
COOK's financial health is supported by solid liquidity, including working-capital and asset support (WC/assets 19.9%). Profitability is soft (2 stars), which helps explain the 3-star overall score.

Growth Momentum Score

★★★★★
Free-cash-flow growth is COOK's strongest growth driver at +14.3% FY2025 versus FY2024 (solid, 4 stars). By comparison, while revenue growth (-7.4%, negative) and earnings growth (-238.7%, negative) hold the profile back, so recent growth is not broad-based across the business.

Ownership

★★★★★
Institutional ownership is 71.3% and approximately 59.0% of outstanding shares are publicly tradable, supporting liquidity and institutional participation. Insider ownership of 18.21% supports management-shareholder alignment.

Top 5 Institutional Investors

Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board 17.65%
Nantahala Capital Management, LLC 5.92%
Vanguard Capital Management, LLC 2.42%
AQR Capital Management LLC 1.72%
Glendon Capital Management LP 1.36%

Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)

★★★★★
COOK generates approximately $319 of gross profit, $-2 of operating income, and $23 of free cash flow for every $1,000 of revenue. Based on FY2025 results. Operating losses explain the 1-star rating, with weak cash conversion and weak capital efficiency.

Economic Dimensions

★★★★★
Effective Tax Rate: 3.47%

Quantitative Style Profile

★★★★★
COOK has a liquid profile. Weak momentum is the primary drawback, while elevated volatility.

Style Classification

Quality Focused

Value-OrientedHigh VolatilitySmall / Mid Cap RiskShort Squeeze RiskHighly Liquid / Institution-Friendly

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 144.72M USD
Price to earnings Ratio -
1Y Target Price 62.33
Price to earnings Ratio -
1Y Target Price 62.33
Volume (30-day avg) 52.0K shares
Beta 1.93
52 Weeks Range 20.91 - 86.59
Updated Date 10/08/2026
52 Weeks Range 20.91 - 86.59
Updated Date 10/08/2026
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) -42.06

How Company Makes Money

Business areaWhat it includesRetail investor read
Grill SalesPremium wood pellet grills and outdoor cooking equipment.The primary way Traeger gains new customers.
ConsumablesHardwood pellets, rubs, and sauces.Provides recurring revenue as customers return to buy fuel.
AccessoriesCovers, tools, and lifestyle merchandise.High-margin add-ons that deepen brand engagement.

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Revenue by Geography

Geography revenue - Year on Year

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Valuation

Trailing PE -
Forward PE 32.79
Enterprise Value 499.48M
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.3
Enterprise Value 499.48M
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.3
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.03
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 11.97
Shares Outstanding 2.80M
Shares Floating 1.65M
Shares Outstanding 2.80M
Shares Floating 1.65M
Percent Insiders 18.21
Percent Institutions 71.34

Financial Metrics

🧭 Investment Snapshot

Total Revenue (Scale)

Information icon Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.

Net Income (Profit)

Information icon Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.

Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)

Information icon Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.

📈 Growth & Strength

Operating Income (Core Profit)

Information icon Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.

EBITDA (Cash Earnings)

Information icon Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.

Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)

Information icon Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.

🛡️ Financial Safety

Cash (Liquidity Buffer)

Information icon Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.

Total Debt (Leverage Risk)

Information icon Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.

Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)

Information icon Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.

🧱 Balance Sheet Strength

Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)

Information icon Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.

Total Assets (Asset Base)

Information icon The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.

Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)

Information icon Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.

⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors

Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)

Information icon Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.

Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)

Information icon Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.

Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)

Information icon Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.

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