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ConocoPhillips(COP)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for COP
10/08/2026: COP (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
ConocoPhillips is a major independent exploration and production company that offers investors exposure to global oil and gas markets through a focus on low-cost, high-quality assets. Its primary strength lies in its disciplined capital allocation and robust balance sheet, which support a consistent dividend and shareholder return program. The company’s core growth story centers on its expanded presence in key U.S. shale basins and a strategic emphasis on efficient production. However, it faces risks from cyclical commodity price volatility, long-term energy transition shifts, and regulatory uncertainty. It is well-suited for income-focused and value-oriented investors who can monitor commodity price trends and management’s execution on capital discipline.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth through operational efficiency but remains tied to cyclical commodity price trends. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Momentum investors may find value during periods of rising oil prices and production expansions. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company is often viewed as a value play due to its cash generation and focus on disciplined capital returns. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | ConocoPhillips provides an attractive dividend structure combining a base payout with variable returns. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Exposure to volatile commodity prices makes this stock subject to significant price fluctuations. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The company's revenue and profitability are directly tied to the highly volatile global oil and gas markets. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market valuations for oil stocks can fluctuate rapidly based on macroeconomic outlooks and energy sentiment. |
| Competition risk (energy sector competition) | Medium | The company competes with integrated majors and other independents for capital and acreage. |
| Business quality | Strong | ConocoPhillips has a well-regarded portfolio of low-cost, high-quality assets. |
| Dividend income | Medium | While dividends are prioritized, the variable portion is subject to cash flow and price variability. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Large-scale integrations and ongoing operations require precise management to maintain cost targets. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -16.95% | Avg. Invested days 31 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/08/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 155.98B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 17.2 | 1Y Target Price 146.08 |
Price to earnings Ratio 17.2 | 1Y Target Price 146.08 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 6.6M shares | Beta 0.24 | 52 Weeks Range 82.95 - 141.62 | Updated Date 10/07/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 82.95 - 141.62 | Updated Date 10/07/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.55% | Basic EPS (TTM) 7.55 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production (E&P) | Extraction and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. | Most revenue comes from selling raw oil and gas, so your returns depend heavily on global energy prices. |
| Geographic Operations | Assets in the U.S., Canada, Alaska, and international regions. | Geographic diversity helps manage regional operational and regulatory risks. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 17.2 | Forward PE 12.74 | Enterprise Value 169.48B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.42 |
Enterprise Value 169.48B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.42 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.68 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 6.1 | Shares Outstanding 1.20B | Shares Floating 1.20B |
Shares Outstanding 1.20B | Shares Floating 1.20B | ||
Percent Insiders 0.1 | Percent Institutions 86.96 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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