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ConocoPhillips(COP)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for COP
10/28/2026: COP (3-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 11 days. Simulated Profits (4.72%). Updated daily EoD!
ConocoPhillips is a prominent independent exploration and production company, focused on the extraction of oil and natural gas globally. Its primary strength lies in a vast, low-cost asset base, particularly in US shale plays, which supports robust operational margins and a shareholder-friendly capital return policy. The investment story centers on disciplined growth and exposure to global LNG markets. However, the company faces inherent risks from commodity price volatility, regulatory shifts, and the complexities of executing large-scale M&A. ConocoPhillips may suit dividend-seeking or value-oriented investors who are comfortable with the cyclical nature of energy markets and the need to monitor energy transition trends closely.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely tied to commodity price cycles and asset optimization rather than high-growth technology expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum follows global energy price trends and depends on positive industry sentiment signals. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company is often viewed as a strong value play due to its focus on free cash flow and disciplined capital allocation. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | Its tiered dividend structure provides an attractive and flexible income stream for long-term investors. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While financially stable, the business remains sensitive to the inherent volatility of global energy markets. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Revenues are directly dependent on the fluctuating global prices of oil and natural gas. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | The stock price often trades in correlation with commodity benchmarks, potentially decoupling from operational performance. |
| Competition risk (Commodity market) | Medium | Fierce competition from integrated majors and other independents impacts access to prime acreage and market pricing power. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company maintains a high-quality, low-cost asset base that supports strong operational margins. |
| Dividend income | Strong | ConocoPhillips has a demonstrated commitment to returning capital to shareholders through consistent base and supplemental dividends. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful integration of large acquisitions like Marathon Oil is essential for realizing projected synergies and production targets. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -13.03% | Avg. Invested days 29 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/28/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 177.75B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 19.6 | 1Y Target Price 151.48 |
Price to earnings Ratio 19.6 | 1Y Target Price 151.48 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 6.4M shares | Beta 0.24 | 52 Weeks Range 82.95 - 152.77 | Updated Date 10/27/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 82.95 - 152.77 | Updated Date 10/27/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.18% | Basic EPS (TTM) 7.55 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| US Lower 48 | Includes Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken shale production; the largest contributor to operating cash flow. | The engine of the company, focusing on low-cost, highly efficient US shale production. |
| International Exploration and Production | Operations in Alaska, Canada, Norway, and various LNG projects globally. | Provides geographic and product diversification, particularly through high-margin LNG exports. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-05 | When Before Market | Estimate 2.95 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 14.4% | Operating Margin (TTM) 31.51% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 7.53% | Return on Equity (TTM) 14.18% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 19.6 | Forward PE 14.22 | Enterprise Value 197.44B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.76 |
Enterprise Value 197.44B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.76 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.12 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 7.11 | Shares Outstanding 1.20B | Shares Floating 1.20B |
Shares Outstanding 1.20B | Shares Floating 1.20B | ||
Percent Insiders 0.1 | Percent Institutions 87.07 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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