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Upturn AI Summary - About
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.(CVLG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for CVLG
10/23/2026: CVLG (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Covenant Logistics Group is a specialized transportation company focused on expedited, dedicated, and managed logistics services. The company has made a strategic shift toward more stable, asset-light segments to improve margins and reduce its sensitivity to the cyclical freight market. Its primary growth opportunity lies in expanding its managed logistics services, which offer more predictable revenue. However, risks remain regarding economic cycles, rising labor costs, and intense competition from larger industry players. The stock may suit value-oriented investors who are comfortable with cyclical volatility and are looking for a company in the midst of a structural pivot toward higher-margin services.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Growth is largely tied to cyclical industry recovery rather than secular high-growth market expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum is conditional on positive trends in freight rates and sector-wide capacity tightening. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The company often trades at low valuation multiples relative to its assets and long-term earnings potential. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company's focus on capital reinvestment and cyclicality makes it less suitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High sensitivity to macroeconomic cycles and fuel costs results in significant stock price volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock is highly sensitive to fluctuations in freight demand and economic cycles. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | While often inexpensive, poor earnings performance can quickly compress valuation multiples. |
| Competition risk (freight industry) | High | Intense competition from larger, scale-advantaged carriers impacts pricing power. |
| Business quality | Medium | Operating margins are susceptible to driver labor market conditions and insurance premiums. |
| Dividend income | Low | Dividends are not the primary focus of the capital allocation strategy. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful transition to more managed, asset-light services requires consistent operational execution. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 88.11% | Avg. Invested days 62 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  5.0 | Stock Returns Performance  4.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 755.50M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 2977 | 1Y Target Price 49.5 |
Price to earnings Ratio 2977 | 1Y Target Price 49.5 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 181.9K shares | Beta 1.4 | 52 Weeks Range 17.83 - 49.78 | Updated Date 10/23/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 17.83 - 49.78 | Updated Date 10/23/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.94% | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.01 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Expedited Services | Time-sensitive truckload transport. | Revenue from high-priority shipping. |
| Dedicated Services | Contracted long-term fleets. | Stable, recurring contract revenue. |
| Managed Logistics | Brokerage and transport management. | Fee-based revenue from managing supply chains. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-29 | When After Market | Estimate 0.44 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 0.31% | Operating Margin (TTM) 2.84% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.15% | Return on Equity (TTM) 0.23% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 2977 | Forward PE 14.22 | Enterprise Value 1.19B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.61 |
Enterprise Value 1.19B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.61 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.96 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.89 | Shares Outstanding 20.68M | Shares Floating 15.32M |
Shares Outstanding 20.68M | Shares Floating 15.32M | ||
Percent Insiders 25.97 | Percent Institutions 73.7 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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