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FWRG
Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)

Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
$16.04
Last Close (24-hour delay)
upturn advisory
PASS
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)​
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)​
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • Pass (Skip investing)
Upturn Stock infoUpturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
*as per simulation
(see disclosures)
Time period over
  • ALL
  • YEAR
  • MONTH
  • WEEK

Upturn Advisory Summary

06/30/2025: FWRG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Upturn Star Rating

rating

Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

Number of Analysts

rating

11 Analysts rated it

Well-followed company, solid analyst reports, reliable data for confident investing.

1 Year Target Price $20.91

1 Year Target Price $20.91

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$20.91Target price
Low$12.9
Current$16.04
high$22.71

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -18.9%
Avg. Invested days 33
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Star Rating Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 06/30/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 982.60M USD
Price to earnings Ratio 94.76
1Y Target Price 20.91
Price to earnings Ratio 94.76
1Y Target Price 20.91
Volume (30-day avg) 11
Beta 0.91
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71
Updated Date 06/30/2025
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71
Updated Date 06/30/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 0.17

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date -
When -
Estimate -
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 1.03%
Operating Margin (TTM) 1.14%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 1.5%
Return on Equity (TTM) 1.86%

Valuation

Trailing PE 94.76
Forward PE 114.94
Enterprise Value 1799997813
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.93
Enterprise Value 1799997813
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.93
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.71
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 19.6
Shares Outstanding 60993200
Shares Floating 45485079
Shares Outstanding 60993200
Shares Floating 45485079
Percent Insiders 2.29
Percent Institutions 112.11

Analyst Ratings

Rating 4
Target Price 20.91
Buy 2
Strong Buy 8
Buy 2
Strong Buy 8
Hold 1
Sell -
Strong Sell -
Strong Sell -

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 in Pacific Grove, California. It has since grown into a leading daytime dining concept, known for its made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings. The company has expanded through both company-owned restaurants and franchising.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Restaurant Operations: Operates and franchises First Watch restaurants, serving breakfast, brunch, and lunch.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

Chris Tomasso serves as the Chief Executive Officer. The company operates with a traditional corporate structure, including functional departments like marketing, finance, and operations, overseen by senior leadership.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Breakfast and Brunch Dishes: First Watch offers a wide range of breakfast and brunch dishes, including pancakes, omelets, avocado toast, and specialty breakfast creations. Market share data specific to these dishes is not publicly available, but the company competes with other breakfast/brunch chains like IHOP (DIN), Denny's (DENN), and Panera Bread (PNRA). Revenue is tied to overall restaurant performance, which is publicly reported. The competitors are IHOP, Denny's, and Panera Bread.
  • Lunch Items: First Watch also features a selection of lunch items, such as salads, sandwiches, and soups. Market share data specific to these items is not publicly available. The competitors are Panera Bread, Applebee's (DIN), and casual dining restaurants.
  • Coffee and Beverages: High-quality coffee, fresh juices, and signature beverages are offered. Market share is not publicly available, competing with Starbucks (SBUX) and other cafes. The competitors are Starbucks and Dunkin' Brands (DNKN).

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The restaurant industry is highly competitive, with trends toward healthier options, convenience, and digital ordering. The breakfast and brunch segment continues to be a growth area.

Positioning

First Watch positions itself as a differentiated daytime dining experience, emphasizing fresh ingredients, made-to-order meals, and a unique menu. Its competitive advantage lies in its focus on the breakfast, brunch, and lunch segment, creating a specialized experience.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The TAM for the breakfast and brunch market in the U.S. is estimated to be substantial, potentially in the tens of billions of dollars annually. First Watch's market share is a smaller portion of the total, allowing for significant growth opportunities.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Strong brand reputation
  • High-quality food and ingredients
  • Differentiated menu and concept
  • Loyal customer base
  • Focus on daytime dining

Weaknesses

  • Limited operating hours (daytime only)
  • Reliance on breakfast/brunch segment
  • Potential for higher food costs due to fresh ingredients
  • Geographic concentration of restaurants
  • Competitive franchise market

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new markets
  • Increased digital ordering and delivery
  • Menu innovation and limited-time offers
  • Strategic partnerships and collaborations
  • Growth in the breakfast and brunch segment

Threats

  • Economic downturn impacting consumer spending
  • Rising food and labor costs
  • Increased competition from other restaurants
  • Changing consumer preferences
  • Supply chain disruptions

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • IHOP (DIN)
  • Denny's (DENN)
  • Cracker Barrel (CBRL)

Competitive Landscape

First Watch differentiates itself through a focus on fresh ingredients and a unique menu. However, IHOP and Denny's have a broader reach. Cracker Barrel has strong brand loyalty.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: First Watch has experienced growth through new restaurant openings and same-store sales increases.

Future Projections: Analyst estimates suggest continued growth driven by expansion and brand awareness. Specific projections would be numerically represented.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include menu enhancements, technology investments to improve the guest experience, and expansion into new markets.

Summary

First Watch is a growing daytime dining concept with a strong brand and differentiated menu. Its focus on fresh ingredients and made-to-order meals resonates with consumers. Expanding geographic reach and adapting to changing consumer preferences are key to future success. Rising costs and competition remain challenges.

Peer Comparison

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company filings
  • Industry reports
  • Analyst estimates
  • Company press releases

Disclaimers:

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market share data is estimated and may not be precise. Financial data is based on available information and is subject to change.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

Exchange NASDAQ
Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01
CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Restaurants
Full time employees 15000
Full time employees 15000

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.