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First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)

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Upturn Advisory Summary
01/09/2026: FWRG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
1 Year Target Price $22.18
1 Year Target Price $22.18
| 8 | Strong Buy |
| 2 | Buy |
| 1 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -32.61% | Avg. Invested days 33 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance | Stock Returns Performance |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 941.73M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 192.88 | 1Y Target Price 22.18 |
Price to earnings Ratio 192.88 | 1Y Target Price 22.18 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 11 | Beta 0.89 | 52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71 | Updated Date 01/9/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71 | Updated Date 01/9/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.08 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 0.43% | Operating Margin (TTM) 3.6% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.15% | Return on Equity (TTM) 0.83% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 192.88 | Forward PE 114.94 | Enterprise Value 1903362380 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.81 |
Enterprise Value 1903362380 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.81 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.63 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 20.32 | Shares Outstanding 61032105 | Shares Floating 55008847 |
Shares Outstanding 61032105 | Shares Floating 55008847 | ||
Percent Insiders 2.12 | Percent Institutions 124.14 |
Upturn AI SWOT
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

Company Overview
History and Background
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. was founded in 1983 in Pacific Grove, California, by John Wilson. It began as a single restaurant focused on serving fresh, made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch. The company has since expanded significantly, becoming a leading operator of American cafu00e9 restaurants. Key milestones include its expansion across multiple states, consistent menu innovation, and its initial public offering (IPO) in 2021, trading under the ticker FWRG.
Core Business Areas
- Breakfast, Brunch, and Lunch: First Watch operates restaurants that are exclusively open for breakfast, brunch, and lunch hours, typically from 7 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. This unique operating window allows for a focus on fresh ingredients, efficient kitchen operations, and a daytime-centric dining experience, differentiating it from traditional dinner-focused establishments.
- Fresh, Made-to-Order Menu: The company emphasizes a menu featuring high-quality, fresh ingredients prepared daily. Offerings include a variety of egg dishes, pancakes, waffles, salads, sandwiches, and seasonal specials. They are known for their 'clean plate' commitment, avoiding artificial sweeteners, preservatives, and processed ingredients in many dishes.
- Beverage Program: A significant part of their offering includes a unique beverage program, featuring fresh-squeezed juices, house-made flavored lemonades, and specialty coffee drinks. They also offer a selection of alcoholic beverages, including mimosas and bloody marys, during brunch hours.
Leadership and Structure
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. is a publicly traded company with a corporate leadership team overseeing its operations. Key executives include the CEO, CFO, and other senior management responsible for strategy, operations, marketing, and finance. The company operates through a network of company-owned and franchised restaurants.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Competitors: Other casual dining chains offering breakfast, independent diners, cafes, and home cooking.
- Description: Signature pancake and waffle dishes often featuring unique flavor combinations and fresh fruit toppings. These are a core part of their breakfast and brunch menu.
- Market Share Data: Specific market share for individual menu items is not publicly disclosed, but these items are consistently popular and drive customer traffic.
- Product Name 1: Specialty Pancakes & Waffles
- Competitors: Other cafes, juice bars, and restaurants with fresh beverage programs.
- Description: A range of freshly squeezed juices (e.g., orange, grapefruit) and house-made flavored lemonades are a distinguishing feature. These beverages are a significant differentiator and revenue driver.
- Market Share Data: Part of the broader 'non-alcoholic beverage' market within the restaurant industry. First Watch's unique offerings contribute to their brand identity.
- Product Name 2: Fresh Juices and Lemonades
- Competitors: Cafes, health food restaurants, and other casual dining establishments offering similar menu items.
- Description: Popular items like avocado toast variations and grain bowls cater to modern dietary preferences and are strong performers in their lunch and brunch offerings.
- Market Share Data: Reflects a growing trend in the health-conscious food market. Specific share for these items within First Watch is not public.
- Product Name 3: Avocado Toast & Bowls
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The U.S. restaurant industry, particularly the breakfast and lunch segment, is highly competitive but has shown resilience. Trends include a demand for healthier options, convenience, unique dining experiences, and a growing interest in brunch. The casual dining sector faces challenges from economic fluctuations, labor costs, and evolving consumer preferences.
Positioning
First Watch is positioned as a premium casual dining restaurant focused exclusively on breakfast, brunch, and lunch. Its competitive advantages include its unique operating hours, emphasis on fresh, high-quality ingredients, differentiated menu, and strong brand recognition within its niche. The company's commitment to a daytime-only model allows for operational efficiencies and a distinct market appeal.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for the U.S. breakfast and brunch market is substantial, estimated in the tens of billions of dollars annually. First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. is a significant player within the fast-casual and casual dining segment of this market. Their position is strengthened by their differentiated concept and consistent growth, though they represent a portion of a much larger, fragmented market.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Unique daytime-only operating hours create a niche market and operational efficiencies.
- Strong brand recognition for fresh, made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch.
- Differentiated menu with a focus on high-quality ingredients and healthy options.
- Proven track record of growth and expansion.
- Loyal customer base and strong unit economics.
Weaknesses
- Limited operating hours restrict revenue potential compared to dinner-serving establishments.
- Dependence on breakfast and lunch trends, which can be cyclical.
- Intense competition within the broader restaurant industry.
- Potential challenges in maintaining consistency across a growing number of locations.
Opportunities
- Continued expansion into new geographic markets.
- Leveraging technology for online ordering and delivery services.
- Further menu innovation to capture evolving consumer tastes.
- Franchise expansion to accelerate growth.
- Partnerships and collaborations to enhance brand visibility.
Threats
- Rising food and labor costs impacting profitability.
- Economic downturns affecting consumer discretionary spending on dining out.
- Increased competition from both established chains and emerging concepts.
- Changes in consumer preferences or dietary trends.
- Supply chain disruptions affecting ingredient availability and cost.
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- Denny's Corporation (DENN)
- The Restaurant Brands International (RBI) - Burger King (for breakfast menu competition)
- Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) (for coffee and lighter breakfast options)
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL)
- IHOP (International House of Pancakes) - part of Dine Brands Global (DIN)
Competitive Landscape
First Watch differentiates itself through its exclusive focus on breakfast/brunch/lunch and its commitment to fresh, high-quality ingredients, setting it apart from more traditional diners or fast-food breakfast options. While facing competition from a wide array of players, its unique concept and customer loyalty are key advantages. Its main disadvantage lies in its limited operating hours, which inherently cap its revenue potential per location compared to competitors serving dinner.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: First Watch has a history of consistent unit growth and increasing revenue since its founding. The company has expanded its footprint significantly across the U.S., demonstrating a steady upward trajectory in its store base and sales over the years.
Future Projections: Analyst projections for First Watch typically focus on continued same-store sales growth, new unit openings, and potential improvements in operating margins. Projections are generally positive, reflecting confidence in their business model and expansion plans.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives likely include strategic market expansion, menu innovation, enhancing digital ordering and delivery capabilities, and optimizing operational efficiencies to support continued growth.
Summary
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. operates a successful niche in the breakfast and brunch market, leveraging fresh ingredients and a daytime-only model. Its consistent growth, brand loyalty, and expansion strategy are working well. However, the company must navigate rising costs and intense competition. Continued focus on innovation and operational efficiency will be crucial for sustained success.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. Investor Relations
- SEC Filings (10-K, 10-Q)
- Financial News Outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal)
- Market Research Reports (for industry trends and TAM data)
Disclaimers:
This analysis is based on publicly available information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Financial data and market share figures are estimates and can vary. Users should conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01 | CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com | ||
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.

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