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Upturn AI Summary - About
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc(FWRG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for FWRG
10/01/2026: FWRG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
First Watch Restaurant Group is a growing restaurant company specializing in a daytime-only dining concept that serves breakfast, brunch, and lunch. Its primary strength lies in a simplified, quality-focused model that appeals to modern consumers while maintaining strong unit economics. The company's investment story is driven by a significant opportunity to expand its footprint across the United States. However, investors must monitor risks related to rising commodity costs, intense competition in the breakfast sector, and the execution challenges associated with rapid growth. The stock may suit growth-oriented investors looking for exposure to the restaurant industry, though it carries typical risks associated with cyclical consumer businesses and premium valuations.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company is in an active phase of scaling its physical footprint to capture national market share. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Performance is highly dependent on broader market sentiment toward consumer discretionary stocks and growth signals. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The stock often trades at premium multiples typical of high-growth concepts rather than traditional value metrics. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not pay a dividend, focusing all capital on reinvestment for expansion. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Restaurant stocks are subject to significant cyclical and operational volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Small-cap restaurant stocks often experience significant fluctuations based on quarterly earnings results. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | High growth expectations are priced in, meaning any slowdown in expansion could negatively impact the share price. |
| Competition risk | High | The breakfast category is crowded with deep-pocketed legacy chains and aggressive fast-casual competitors. |
| Business quality | Medium | The brand has a strong niche, but operating leverage is susceptible to labor and ingredient inflation. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Investors should expect zero income yield as management prioritizes unit growth over dividends. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successfully managing new unit openings across diverse geographic regions is critical to long-term success. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -63.39% | Avg. Invested days 24 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/01/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 627.62M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 36.32 | 1Y Target Price 19.5 |
Price to earnings Ratio 36.32 | 1Y Target Price 19.5 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.1M shares | Beta 1.03 | 52 Weeks Range 9.88 - 18.82 | Updated Date 10/01/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 9.88 - 18.82 | Updated Date 10/01/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.28 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Company-Owned Restaurants | Direct sales of food and beverages at corporate-operated First Watch locations. | This is the primary revenue engine representing the majority of total sales. |
| Franchising | Royalty fees and development fees collected from franchised restaurant operators. | This provides a high-margin, predictable stream of revenue with lower capital intensity. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 36.32 | Forward PE 63.69 | Enterprise Value 1.69B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.48 |
Enterprise Value 1.69B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.48 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.28 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 15.01 | Shares Outstanding 61.71M | Shares Floating 60.76M |
Shares Outstanding 61.71M | Shares Floating 60.76M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.85 | Percent Institutions 109.12 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquarters Bradenton, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01 | CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 18000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
Full time employees 18000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com | ||
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.
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