
Cancel anytime
- Chart
- Upturn Summary
- Highlights
- Revenue
- Valuation
- Analyst Ratings
Upturn AI SWOT
- About
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)



- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- Pass (Skip investing)


(see disclosures)
- ALL
- YEAR
- MONTH
- WEEK
Upturn Advisory Summary
06/30/2025: FWRG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
1 Year Target Price $20.91
1 Year Target Price $20.91
8 | Strong Buy |
2 | Buy |
1 | Hold |
0 | Sell |
0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -18.9% | Avg. Invested days 33 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance ![]() | Stock Returns Performance ![]() |
![]() ![]() | ![]() ![]() |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 982.60M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 94.76 | 1Y Target Price 20.91 |
Price to earnings Ratio 94.76 | 1Y Target Price 20.91 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 11 | Beta 0.91 | 52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71 | Updated Date 06/30/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71 | Updated Date 06/30/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.17 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 1.03% | Operating Margin (TTM) 1.14% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.5% | Return on Equity (TTM) 1.86% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 94.76 | Forward PE 114.94 | Enterprise Value 1799997813 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.93 |
Enterprise Value 1799997813 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.93 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.71 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 19.6 | Shares Outstanding 60993200 | Shares Floating 45485079 |
Shares Outstanding 60993200 | Shares Floating 45485079 | ||
Percent Insiders 2.29 | Percent Institutions 112.11 |
Analyst Ratings
Rating 4 | Target Price 20.91 | Buy 2 | Strong Buy 8 |
Buy 2 | Strong Buy 8 | ||
Hold 1 | Sell - | Strong Sell - | |
Strong Sell - |
Upturn AI SWOT
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 in Pacific Grove, California. It has since grown into a leading daytime dining concept, known for its made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings. The company has expanded through both company-owned restaurants and franchising.
Core Business Areas
- Restaurant Operations: Operates and franchises First Watch restaurants, serving breakfast, brunch, and lunch.
Leadership and Structure
Chris Tomasso serves as the Chief Executive Officer. The company operates with a traditional corporate structure, including functional departments like marketing, finance, and operations, overseen by senior leadership.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Breakfast and Brunch Dishes: First Watch offers a wide range of breakfast and brunch dishes, including pancakes, omelets, avocado toast, and specialty breakfast creations. Market share data specific to these dishes is not publicly available, but the company competes with other breakfast/brunch chains like IHOP (DIN), Denny's (DENN), and Panera Bread (PNRA). Revenue is tied to overall restaurant performance, which is publicly reported. The competitors are IHOP, Denny's, and Panera Bread.
- Lunch Items: First Watch also features a selection of lunch items, such as salads, sandwiches, and soups. Market share data specific to these items is not publicly available. The competitors are Panera Bread, Applebee's (DIN), and casual dining restaurants.
- Coffee and Beverages: High-quality coffee, fresh juices, and signature beverages are offered. Market share is not publicly available, competing with Starbucks (SBUX) and other cafes. The competitors are Starbucks and Dunkin' Brands (DNKN).
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The restaurant industry is highly competitive, with trends toward healthier options, convenience, and digital ordering. The breakfast and brunch segment continues to be a growth area.
Positioning
First Watch positions itself as a differentiated daytime dining experience, emphasizing fresh ingredients, made-to-order meals, and a unique menu. Its competitive advantage lies in its focus on the breakfast, brunch, and lunch segment, creating a specialized experience.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for the breakfast and brunch market in the U.S. is estimated to be substantial, potentially in the tens of billions of dollars annually. First Watch's market share is a smaller portion of the total, allowing for significant growth opportunities.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong brand reputation
- High-quality food and ingredients
- Differentiated menu and concept
- Loyal customer base
- Focus on daytime dining
Weaknesses
- Limited operating hours (daytime only)
- Reliance on breakfast/brunch segment
- Potential for higher food costs due to fresh ingredients
- Geographic concentration of restaurants
- Competitive franchise market
Opportunities
- Expansion into new markets
- Increased digital ordering and delivery
- Menu innovation and limited-time offers
- Strategic partnerships and collaborations
- Growth in the breakfast and brunch segment
Threats
- Economic downturn impacting consumer spending
- Rising food and labor costs
- Increased competition from other restaurants
- Changing consumer preferences
- Supply chain disruptions
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- IHOP (DIN)
- Denny's (DENN)
- Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
Competitive Landscape
First Watch differentiates itself through a focus on fresh ingredients and a unique menu. However, IHOP and Denny's have a broader reach. Cracker Barrel has strong brand loyalty.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: First Watch has experienced growth through new restaurant openings and same-store sales increases.
Future Projections: Analyst estimates suggest continued growth driven by expansion and brand awareness. Specific projections would be numerically represented.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include menu enhancements, technology investments to improve the guest experience, and expansion into new markets.
Summary
First Watch is a growing daytime dining concept with a strong brand and differentiated menu. Its focus on fresh ingredients and made-to-order meals resonates with consumers. Expanding geographic reach and adapting to changing consumer preferences are key to future success. Rising costs and competition remain challenges.
Peer Comparison
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company filings
- Industry reports
- Analyst estimates
- Company press releases
Disclaimers:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market share data is estimated and may not be precise. Financial data is based on available information and is subject to change.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01 | CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.
Note: This website is maintained by Upturn Corporation, which is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investing in securities has risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. No assurance is provided as to any particular investment return, and you may lose money using our services. You are strongly advised to consult appropriate counsel before making any investments in companies you learn about through our services. You should obtain appropriate legal, tax, investment, accounting, and other advice that takes into account your investment portfolio and overall financial situation. You are solely responsible for conducting due diligence on a potential investment. We do not affect trades for you. You will select your own broker through which to transact. Investments are not FDIC insured, they are not guaranteed, and they may lose value. Please see the Privacy Policy, Terms of Use, and Disclosure for more information.