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Upturn AI Summary - About
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc(FWRG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for FWRG
10/30/2026: FWRG (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is a growth-focused restaurant operator known for its 'daytime-only' breakfast, brunch, and lunch model. The company's key strengths include a distinct brand identity, high-quality, scratch-made food, and operational efficiencies resulting from limited service hours. Its investment story centers on the successful, scalable expansion of its unit count across the U.S. market. However, investors must consider risks such as high sensitivity to labor and commodity costs, intense industry competition, and the inherent volatility of a growth stock. First Watch may suit growth-oriented investors, though it is not a fit for those seeking income, and development should be monitored for consistent margin performance.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company offers a clear, repeatable expansion story in the under-penetrated BBL restaurant segment. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Fit is conditional on the stock maintaining a positive technical uptrend amidst broader market volatility. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | As a growth-oriented restaurant stock, it typically trades at higher multiples than mature, slow-growth peers. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company currently does not pay a dividend, prioritizing capital allocation toward unit growth. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Restaurant stocks are inherently subject to consumer spending cycles, commodity cost fluctuations, and operational risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | Small-cap growth stocks in the restaurant sector often experience significant price swings based on quarterly sales trends. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | High P/E multiples relative to sector averages require sustained high growth to justify the current stock price. |
| Competition risk (casual dining) | Medium | The competitive nature of breakfast dining means the company must continually innovate to maintain its brand differentiation. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the brand has a strong following, it relies on successful execution of a labor-intensive restaurant model at scale. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | The company does not provide income through dividends, which is a consideration for income-focused portfolios. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Rapidly opening new locations requires consistent management of labor, supply chains, and training to preserve brand standards. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -63.91% | Avg. Invested days 24 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/30/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 772.02M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 44.68 | 1Y Target Price 18.3 |
Price to earnings Ratio 44.68 | 1Y Target Price 18.3 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.6M shares | Beta 1.05 | 52 Weeks Range 9.88 - 18.77 | Updated Date 10/30/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 9.88 - 18.77 | Updated Date 10/30/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.28 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Company-Owned Restaurants | Direct sales of food and beverages at company-operated locations. | This is the primary driver of revenue, representing direct operational performance and customer demand. |
| Franchised Restaurants | Royalties and franchise fees from independently operated First Watch locations. | This provides a higher-margin revenue stream with lower capital intensity than company-owned stores. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-03 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.03 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 1.35% | Operating Margin (TTM) 2.48% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.18% | Return on Equity (TTM) 2.88% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 44.68 | Forward PE 63.69 | Enterprise Value 1.77B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.59 |
Enterprise Value 1.77B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.59 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.34 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 15.68 | Shares Outstanding 61.71M | Shares Floating 60.65M |
Shares Outstanding 61.71M | Shares Floating 60.65M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.85 | Percent Institutions 108.78 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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