Upturn unsubscribed user
$1.14/ day, billed weekly
Cancel anytime
(Ad-Free, Unlimited access)​
NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED
FWRG logo FWRG
Upturn stock rating
FWRG logo

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)

Upturn stock rating
$17.69
Last Close (24-hour delay)
Profit since last BUY-5.2%
upturn advisory
Consider higher Upturn Star rating
BUY since 5 days
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • Pass (Skip investing)
Upturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
*as per simulation
(see disclosures)
Time period over
  • ALL
  • 1Y
  • 1M
  • 1W

Upturn Advisory Summary

10/28/2025: FWRG (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.

Upturn Star Rating

rating

Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

Number of Analysts

rating

11 Analysts rated it

Moderately tracked stock, growing coverage, gaining market and investor attention.

1 Year Target Price $22.27

1 Year Target Price $22.27

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$22.27 Target price
52w Low $12.9
Current$17.69
52w High $22.71

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -29%
Avg. Invested days 31
Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating
Upturn Star Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 10/28/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 1.10B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 300.5
1Y Target Price 22.27
Price to earnings Ratio 300.5
1Y Target Price 22.27
Volume (30-day avg) 11
Beta 0.87
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71
Updated Date 10/28/2025
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71
Updated Date 10/28/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 0.06

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date 2025-11-04
When -
Estimate 0.069
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 0.37%
Operating Margin (TTM) 2.97%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 1.03%
Return on Equity (TTM) 0.69%

Valuation

Trailing PE 300.5
Forward PE 114.94
Enterprise Value 1911099618
Price to Sales(TTM) 1
Enterprise Value 1911099618
Price to Sales(TTM) 1
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.73
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 22.26
Shares Outstanding 61023971
Shares Floating 55005787
Shares Outstanding 61023971
Shares Floating 55005787
Percent Insiders 1.99
Percent Institutions 102.71

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 in Pacific Grove, California. It has grown from a single restaurant to a large chain specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings. The company went public in October 2021.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Restaurant Operations: First Watch operates and franchises breakfast, brunch and lunch restaurants under the name 'First Watch'.
  • Franchising: First Watch franchises its restaurant concept to independent operators.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

Chris Tomasso serves as the Chief Executive Officer. The company has a typical corporate structure with a board of directors and various management teams overseeing different aspects of the business, including operations, marketing, and finance.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Breakfast Dishes: Includes traditional breakfast items like pancakes, eggs, bacon, and sausage. First Watch has expanded its menu with healthier options and seasonal specials. Market share data for specific breakfast items is unavailable, but it competes with chains like IHOP (DIN) and Denny's (DENN).
  • Brunch and Lunch Options: Features sandwiches, salads, and bowls catering to a mid-day dining crowd. Again, specific market share data is limited, but they compete with Panera Bread (PNRA, private) and other fast-casual restaurants.
  • Coffee: Offers specialty coffee drinks. Competitors are Starbucks (SBUX), Dutch Bros (BROS) and Dunkin' (DNKN, private).

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The restaurant industry is highly competitive, with a mix of chain restaurants and independent eateries. Trends include a focus on healthier options, convenience, and digital ordering. The breakfast and brunch segment is a growth area.

Positioning

First Watch positions itself as a premium breakfast, brunch, and lunch restaurant focusing on fresh ingredients and a unique menu. Its competitive advantage lies in its daytime-only hours and differentiated offerings.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The US breakfast and brunch market is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars. First Watch, with over 500 locations, is well-positioned to capture a larger share of this market as it continues to expand.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Strong brand recognition
  • High-quality food and service
  • Daytime-only hours
  • Healthier menu options
  • Focus on Breakfast & Brunch

Weaknesses

  • Limited operating hours
  • Higher price point compared to competitors
  • Dependence on consistent food quality
  • Geographic concentration in certain regions

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new markets
  • Increased digital ordering and delivery
  • Menu innovation and seasonal offerings
  • Franchise growth
  • Catering and group dining

Threats

  • Increased competition
  • Rising food and labor costs
  • Changing consumer preferences
  • Economic downturns
  • Supply chain disruptions

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • IHOP (DIN)
  • Denny's (DENN)
  • Cracker Barrel (CBRL)

Competitive Landscape

First Watch differentiates itself with a fresher, more innovative menu and a daytime-only focus, offering a different experience compared to 24-hour chains like Denny's and IHOP. Cracker Barrel has a gift shop and Southern-themed meals.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: First Watch has demonstrated growth through new restaurant openings and same-store sales increases.

Future Projections: Analyst estimates vary but generally project continued growth driven by expansion and brand strength.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include expanding restaurant locations, improving digital ordering capabilities, and launching new menu items.

Summary

First Watch is a growing restaurant chain specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch, known for its fresh ingredients and daytime-only model. The company's strengths lie in its brand recognition and menu differentiation, but it faces challenges related to competition and costs. Expansion into new markets and menu innovation present opportunities. First Watch needs to maintain consistency in food quality and manage increasing costs.

Similar Stocks

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company reports
  • Financial news sources
  • Analyst estimates

Disclaimers:

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market share estimates are approximate. Financial data is subject to change.

Upturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

Exchange NASDAQ
Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01
CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Restaurants
Full time employees 15000
Full time employees 15000

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.