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Upturn AI SWOT - About
FWRG 
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)
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Upturn Advisory Summary
08/28/2025: FWRG (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Upturn Star Rating
Not Recommended Performance
These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.
Number of Analysts
11 Analysts rated it
Moderately tracked stock, growing coverage, gaining market and investor attention.
1 Year Target Price $22
1 Year Target Price $22
| 8 | Strong Buy |
| 2 | Buy |
| 1 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -15.3% | Avg. Invested days 33 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Star Rating | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 08/28/2025 |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.15B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 104.61 | 1Y Target Price 22 |
Price to earnings Ratio 104.61 | 1Y Target Price 22 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 11 | Beta 0.92 | 52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71 | Updated Date 08/29/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71 | Updated Date 08/29/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.18 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2025-08-05 | When - | Estimate 0.06 | Actual 0.03 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 0.37% | Operating Margin (TTM) 2.97% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.03% | Return on Equity (TTM) 0.69% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 104.61 | Forward PE 114.94 | Enterprise Value 2088679373 | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.04 |
Enterprise Value 2088679373 | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.04 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.7 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 22.3 | Shares Outstanding 61024000 | Shares Floating 50605959 |
Shares Outstanding 61024000 | Shares Floating 50605959 | ||
Percent Insiders 1.99 | Percent Institutions 109.95 |
Upturn AI SWOT
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Company Overview
History and Background
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 in Pacific Grove, California. It focuses on providing a breakfast, brunch, and lunch experience. The company expanded through franchising and company-owned restaurants. It went public in 2021.
Core Business Areas
- Restaurant Operations: Operates and franchises First Watch restaurants, focusing on made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings.
Leadership and Structure
Chris Tomasso serves as the CEO. The company operates with a typical corporate structure including executive leadership overseeing various operational and support functions.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Breakfast Classics: Traditional breakfast items like pancakes, waffles, eggs, and bacon. Competitors include IHOP, Denny's, and local diners. Revenue contribution is significant, but specific market share data is not publicly available per product. Market share data provided under "Competitors" section reflects restaurant chain market share, not individual product share.
- Brunch Specialties: Unique brunch items like avocado toast, breakfast bowls, and seasonal dishes. Competitors include local brunch spots and chains like Another Broken Egg Cafe. Revenue contribution is significant, but specific market share data is not publicly available per product. Market share data provided under "Competitors" section reflects restaurant chain market share, not individual product share.
- Lunch Options: Sandwiches, salads, and soups offered during lunch hours. Competitors include Panera Bread, and other fast-casual restaurants. Revenue contribution is lower than breakfast/brunch items, but specific market share data is not publicly available per product. Market share data provided under "Competitors" section reflects restaurant chain market share, not individual product share.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The restaurant industry is highly competitive, with trends favoring fast-casual dining and healthier options. The breakfast and brunch segment is experiencing growth.
Positioning
First Watch is positioned as a fast-casual restaurant specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch. Its competitive advantages include a focus on fresh ingredients, a varied menu, and a pleasant dining environment.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The breakfast/brunch segment of the restaurant industry represents a large TAM, estimated in the tens of billions of dollars in the US alone. First Watch is positioned to capture a portion of this TAM through expansion and menu innovation.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong brand recognition
- Focus on fresh ingredients
- Attractive store design
- Loyal customer base
- Differentiated menu compared to traditional breakfast chains
Weaknesses
- Limited operating hours (breakfast, brunch, lunch only)
- Potential dependence on seasonal menu items
- Higher price point compared to some competitors
- Sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations
- Relatively limited geographical presence compared to larger chains
Opportunities
- Further expansion into new markets
- Menu innovation and development of new offerings
- Increased focus on digital ordering and delivery
- Potential for strategic partnerships
- Expansion of catering services
Threats
- Intense competition from other restaurant chains and local eateries
- Fluctuations in food and labor costs
- Changing consumer preferences and dietary trends
- Economic downturns impacting consumer spending
- Supply chain disruptions
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- IHOP (DIN)
- Denny's (DENN)
- Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
Competitive Landscape
First Watch competes with national chains and local restaurants. Its focus on fresh ingredients and a diverse menu gives it a competitive advantage, but it also faces challenges from larger, more established chains.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: First Watch has grown through a combination of company-owned and franchised restaurants. Historical growth data depends on several years of financial statements and location data which is not currently available.
Future Projections: Future growth projections are dependent on analyst estimates. To be populated in future iterations.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include expansion into new markets, menu innovation, and investments in technology for online ordering and delivery.
Summary
First Watch is a growing restaurant chain with a strong brand and focus on fresh ingredients. Its limited hours of operation may limit its growth potential, but expansion and menu innovation offer opportunities. Competition is intense, and the company must manage costs effectively to maintain profitability.
Peer Comparison
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company filings
- Analyst reports
- Industry publications
Disclaimers:
The data and analysis provided are for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market share data is approximate and based on publicly available information.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01 | CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com | ||
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.
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