Upturn unsubscribed user
$1.14/ day, billed weekly
Cancel anytime
(Ad-Free, Unlimited access)​
NO CREDIT CARD REQUIRED
FWRG logo FWRG
Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
FWRG logo

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)

Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
$16.65
Last Close (24-hour delay)
Profit since last BUY-7.65%
upturn advisory
SELL
SELL since 1 day
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)​
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)​
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • Pass (Skip investing)
Upturn Stock infoUpturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
*as per simulation
(see disclosures)
Time period over
  • ALL
  • YEAR
  • MONTH
  • WEEK

Upturn Advisory Summary

09/16/2025: FWRG (1-star) is a SELL. SELL since 1 days. Simulated Profits (-7.65%). Updated daily EoD!

Upturn Star Rating

rating

Not Recommended Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, consistently fall short of market performance, signaling caution before investing.

Number of Analysts

rating

11 Analysts rated it

Moderately tracked stock, growing coverage, gaining market and investor attention.

1 Year Target Price $22

1 Year Target Price $22

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$22 Target price
52w Low $12.9
Current$16.65
52w High $22.71

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit -25.1%
Avg. Invested days 34
Today’s Advisory SELL
Upturn Star Rating Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 2.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 1.0
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 09/16/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Small-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 1.05B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 95.56
1Y Target Price 22
Price to earnings Ratio 95.56
1Y Target Price 22
Volume (30-day avg) 11
Beta 0.93
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71
Updated Date 09/16/2025
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71
Updated Date 09/16/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 0.18

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date -
When -
Estimate -
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 0.37%
Operating Margin (TTM) 2.97%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 1.03%
Return on Equity (TTM) 0.69%

Valuation

Trailing PE 95.56
Forward PE 114.94
Enterprise Value 1978225986
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.95
Enterprise Value 1978225986
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.95
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.56
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 21.12
Shares Outstanding 61024000
Shares Floating 55005787
Shares Outstanding 61024000
Shares Floating 55005787
Percent Insiders 1.99
Percent Institutions 102.86

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 in Pacific Grove, California. It began franchising in 1986 and has grown to become a leading breakfast, brunch, and lunch restaurant company.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • Restaurant Operations: Operates and franchises First Watch restaurants, offering made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch items.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

Chris Tomasso is the CEO. The company operates with a typical corporate structure, including executive leadership, regional management, and restaurant-level staff.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Breakfast Classics: Traditional breakfast items like pancakes, waffles, eggs, and bacon. Market share is difficult to pinpoint precisely, but First Watch differentiates itself through fresh ingredients and a focus on the daytime dining experience. Competitors include Denny's, IHOP, and independent breakfast spots.
  • Brunch Innovations: Unique brunch dishes such as avocado toast, breakfast tacos, and seasonal specials. These offerings attract a younger demographic and drive repeat business. Competition includes brunch-focused restaurants and cafes.
  • Lunch Options: Salads, sandwiches, and soups provide options beyond breakfast and brunch, expanding the customer base and daypart coverage. Competitors include Panera Bread and casual dining restaurants.

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The breakfast, brunch, and lunch segment is competitive and growing, driven by consumer demand for fresh, convenient, and experiential dining options.

Positioning

First Watch positions itself as a leader in the daytime dining segment, emphasizing fresh ingredients, innovative menu items, and a welcoming atmosphere. Its competitive advantage lies in its focus on quality and a differentiated dining experience.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The TAM for breakfast, brunch, and lunch in the US is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars. First Watch, with its focus on quality and customer experience, aims to capture a significant share of this market through strategic expansion and menu innovation.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Strong brand recognition
  • High-quality ingredients
  • Innovative menu offerings
  • Focus on daytime dining
  • Experienced management team

Weaknesses

  • Limited operating hours (breakfast, brunch, and lunch only)
  • Sensitivity to food cost inflation
  • Reliance on consistent execution across locations
  • Higher price point than some competitors
  • Geographic concentration in certain regions

Opportunities

  • Expansion into new markets
  • Menu innovation and seasonal offerings
  • Increased focus on digital ordering and delivery
  • Development of loyalty programs
  • Potential for international expansion

Threats

  • Increased competition from other breakfast, brunch, and lunch restaurants
  • Economic downturn affecting consumer spending
  • Rising food and labor costs
  • Changes in consumer preferences
  • Supply chain disruptions

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • DIN
  • WEN
  • CBRL

Competitive Landscape

First Watch competes with both chain and independent breakfast, brunch, and lunch restaurants. Its strengths lie in its fresh ingredients, innovative menu, and focus on the daytime dining experience. Weaknesses include higher price point and limited operating hours compared to some competitors. Current market share for all companies cannot be accurately reflected without current year data.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: First Watch has experienced significant growth in recent years, driven by new restaurant openings and same-store sales growth.

Future Projections: Analyst estimates suggest continued growth for First Watch, driven by expansion plans and strong brand performance.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include menu innovation, expansion of digital ordering capabilities, and strategic acquisitions.

Summary

First Watch is a growing restaurant chain focused on the breakfast, brunch, and lunch segment. The company differentiates itself through fresh ingredients and an innovative menu. It faces challenges such as competition and rising costs, but its expansion plans and brand strength position it for continued growth. Key to First Watch's success will be its ability to maintain consistent quality and execute its expansion strategy effectively.

Peer Comparison

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company website
  • Analyst reports
  • Industry publications
  • SEC filings

Disclaimers:

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market share estimates are approximate and may vary based on source and methodology. Financial data requires current year reporting

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

Exchange NASDAQ
Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01
CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Restaurants
Full time employees 15000
Full time employees 15000

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.