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Upturn AI SWOT - About
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)

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Upturn Advisory Summary
10/28/2025: FWRG (1-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
1 Year Target Price $22.27
1 Year Target Price $22.27
| 8 | Strong Buy |
| 2 | Buy |
| 1 | Hold |
| 0 | Sell |
| 0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -29% | Avg. Invested days 31 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance | Stock Returns Performance |
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.10B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 300.5 | 1Y Target Price 22.27 |
Price to earnings Ratio 300.5 | 1Y Target Price 22.27 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 11 | Beta 0.87 | 52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71 | Updated Date 10/28/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71 | Updated Date 10/28/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.06 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2025-11-04 | When - | Estimate 0.069 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 0.37% | Operating Margin (TTM) 2.97% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.03% | Return on Equity (TTM) 0.69% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 300.5 | Forward PE 114.94 | Enterprise Value 1911099618 | Price to Sales(TTM) 1 |
Enterprise Value 1911099618 | Price to Sales(TTM) 1 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.73 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 22.26 | Shares Outstanding 61023971 | Shares Floating 55005787 |
Shares Outstanding 61023971 | Shares Floating 55005787 | ||
Percent Insiders 1.99 | Percent Institutions 102.71 |
Upturn AI SWOT
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

Company Overview
History and Background
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 in Pacific Grove, California. It has grown from a single restaurant to a large chain specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings. The company went public in October 2021.
Core Business Areas
- Restaurant Operations: First Watch operates and franchises breakfast, brunch and lunch restaurants under the name 'First Watch'.
- Franchising: First Watch franchises its restaurant concept to independent operators.
Leadership and Structure
Chris Tomasso serves as the Chief Executive Officer. The company has a typical corporate structure with a board of directors and various management teams overseeing different aspects of the business, including operations, marketing, and finance.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Breakfast Dishes: Includes traditional breakfast items like pancakes, eggs, bacon, and sausage. First Watch has expanded its menu with healthier options and seasonal specials. Market share data for specific breakfast items is unavailable, but it competes with chains like IHOP (DIN) and Denny's (DENN).
- Brunch and Lunch Options: Features sandwiches, salads, and bowls catering to a mid-day dining crowd. Again, specific market share data is limited, but they compete with Panera Bread (PNRA, private) and other fast-casual restaurants.
- Coffee: Offers specialty coffee drinks. Competitors are Starbucks (SBUX), Dutch Bros (BROS) and Dunkin' (DNKN, private).
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The restaurant industry is highly competitive, with a mix of chain restaurants and independent eateries. Trends include a focus on healthier options, convenience, and digital ordering. The breakfast and brunch segment is a growth area.
Positioning
First Watch positions itself as a premium breakfast, brunch, and lunch restaurant focusing on fresh ingredients and a unique menu. Its competitive advantage lies in its daytime-only hours and differentiated offerings.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The US breakfast and brunch market is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars. First Watch, with over 500 locations, is well-positioned to capture a larger share of this market as it continues to expand.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong brand recognition
- High-quality food and service
- Daytime-only hours
- Healthier menu options
- Focus on Breakfast & Brunch
Weaknesses
- Limited operating hours
- Higher price point compared to competitors
- Dependence on consistent food quality
- Geographic concentration in certain regions
Opportunities
- Expansion into new markets
- Increased digital ordering and delivery
- Menu innovation and seasonal offerings
- Franchise growth
- Catering and group dining
Threats
- Increased competition
- Rising food and labor costs
- Changing consumer preferences
- Economic downturns
- Supply chain disruptions
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- IHOP (DIN)
- Denny's (DENN)
- Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
Competitive Landscape
First Watch differentiates itself with a fresher, more innovative menu and a daytime-only focus, offering a different experience compared to 24-hour chains like Denny's and IHOP. Cracker Barrel has a gift shop and Southern-themed meals.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: First Watch has demonstrated growth through new restaurant openings and same-store sales increases.
Future Projections: Analyst estimates vary but generally project continued growth driven by expansion and brand strength.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include expanding restaurant locations, improving digital ordering capabilities, and launching new menu items.
Summary
First Watch is a growing restaurant chain specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch, known for its fresh ingredients and daytime-only model. The company's strengths lie in its brand recognition and menu differentiation, but it faces challenges related to competition and costs. Expansion into new markets and menu innovation present opportunities. First Watch needs to maintain consistency in food quality and manage increasing costs.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company reports
- Financial news sources
- Analyst estimates
Disclaimers:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market share estimates are approximate. Financial data is subject to change.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01 | CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com | ||
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.

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