Home 
Today's Top Picks 
Top Performers 
Watchlist 
My Robo Portfolios 
ETF Zone 
How It Works 
News - Chart
- Upturn Summary
- Highlights
- Revenue
- Valuation
- About
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc(FWRG)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for FWRG
09/17/2026: FWRG (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
First Watch Restaurant Group is a growing restaurant company specializing in a premium daytime-only breakfast, brunch, and lunch experience. The company stands out for its high-quality, fresh menu and efficient operational model, which avoids the complexities of dinner service. Its primary growth story revolves around aggressive, disciplined nationwide expansion. However, risks include sensitivity to rising labor and food costs, as well as competition from established casual dining chains. The stock may suit growth-oriented investors looking for exposure to the breakfast segment, though it lacks dividend income and carries the inherent volatility typical of a scaling restaurant chain. Investors should monitor development pace and comparable sales figures.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company is in an active expansion phase with a clear strategy for increasing its footprint across the U.S. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum performance is conditional on market sentiment and the company's ability to consistently exceed growth expectations. |
| Value investor | Weak fit | The stock often trades at a premium multiple reflecting its growth potential, which may not satisfy traditional value criteria. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company does not currently pay a dividend as it prioritizes capital for reinvestment. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | As a growth-oriented restaurant stock, it carries inherent operational and market volatility risks. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Small-cap growth stocks in the restaurant sector often experience significant price fluctuations based on earnings sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | The stock's valuation is sensitive to its ability to sustain high growth rates. |
| Competition risk (casual dining) | Medium | The breakfast market is crowded with low-cost and high-convenience competitors. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business model is proven, but scaling successfully across new territories remains a primary challenge. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Income-focused investors will not find dividend-based returns here. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful growth depends heavily on site selection and labor management in new markets. |
Price Behavior
Downtrend
The stock has experienced a sustained decline in price over recent periods.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -66.09% | Avg. Invested days 25 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  2.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/17/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 643.66M USD | Price to earnings Ratio 37.25 | 1Y Target Price 19.27 |
Price to earnings Ratio 37.25 | 1Y Target Price 19.27 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 1.1M shares | Beta 1.03 | 52 Weeks Range 9.97 - 18.82 | Updated Date 09/17/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 9.97 - 18.82 | Updated Date 09/17/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.28 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Restaurant Sales | Revenue generated from food and beverage sales at company-owned locations. | Most revenue comes from customers eating in, picking up, or ordering delivery from company-run stores. |
| Franchise Revenue | Royalties and fees earned from franchise-operated locations. | The company earns a percentage of sales from restaurants managed by third parties. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 37.25 | Forward PE 63.69 | Enterprise Value 1.70B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.49 |
Enterprise Value 1.70B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.49 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.29 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 15.1 | Shares Outstanding 61.71M | Shares Floating 60.76M |
Shares Outstanding 61.71M | Shares Floating 60.76M | ||
Percent Insiders 1.85 | Percent Institutions 110.46 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquarters Bradenton, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01 | CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 18000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
Full time employees 18000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com | ||
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.
Note: This website is maintained by Upturn Corporation, which is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investing in securities has risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. No assurance is provided as to any particular investment return, and you may lose money using our services. You are strongly advised to consult appropriate counsel before making any investments in companies you learn about through our services. You should obtain appropriate legal, tax, investment, accounting, and other advice that takes into account your investment portfolio and overall financial situation. You are solely responsible for conducting due diligence on a potential investment. We do not affect trades for you. You will select your own broker through which to transact. Investments are not FDIC insured, they are not guaranteed, and they may lose value. Please see the Privacy Policy, Terms of Use, and Disclosure for more information.
All company names, trademarks, logos, and brands are the property of their respective owners and are used for identification and informational purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks, and logos does not imply endorsement by their respective owners.