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First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)



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Upturn Advisory Summary
09/16/2025: FWRG (1-star) is a SELL. SELL since 1 days. Simulated Profits (-7.65%). Updated daily EoD!
1 Year Target Price $22
1 Year Target Price $22
8 | Strong Buy |
2 | Buy |
1 | Hold |
0 | Sell |
0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -25.1% | Avg. Invested days 34 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance ![]() | Stock Returns Performance ![]() |
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Key Highlights
Company Size Small-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 1.05B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 95.56 | 1Y Target Price 22 |
Price to earnings Ratio 95.56 | 1Y Target Price 22 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 11 | Beta 0.93 | 52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71 | Updated Date 09/16/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 12.90 - 22.71 | Updated Date 09/16/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.18 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date - | When - | Estimate - | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 0.37% | Operating Margin (TTM) 2.97% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.03% | Return on Equity (TTM) 0.69% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 95.56 | Forward PE 114.94 | Enterprise Value 1978225986 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.95 |
Enterprise Value 1978225986 | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.95 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.56 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 21.12 | Shares Outstanding 61024000 | Shares Floating 55005787 |
Shares Outstanding 61024000 | Shares Floating 55005787 | ||
Percent Insiders 1.99 | Percent Institutions 102.86 |
Upturn AI SWOT
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

Company Overview
History and Background
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 in Pacific Grove, California. It began franchising in 1986 and has grown to become a leading breakfast, brunch, and lunch restaurant company.
Core Business Areas
- Restaurant Operations: Operates and franchises First Watch restaurants, offering made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch items.
Leadership and Structure
Chris Tomasso is the CEO. The company operates with a typical corporate structure, including executive leadership, regional management, and restaurant-level staff.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Breakfast Classics: Traditional breakfast items like pancakes, waffles, eggs, and bacon. Market share is difficult to pinpoint precisely, but First Watch differentiates itself through fresh ingredients and a focus on the daytime dining experience. Competitors include Denny's, IHOP, and independent breakfast spots.
- Brunch Innovations: Unique brunch dishes such as avocado toast, breakfast tacos, and seasonal specials. These offerings attract a younger demographic and drive repeat business. Competition includes brunch-focused restaurants and cafes.
- Lunch Options: Salads, sandwiches, and soups provide options beyond breakfast and brunch, expanding the customer base and daypart coverage. Competitors include Panera Bread and casual dining restaurants.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The breakfast, brunch, and lunch segment is competitive and growing, driven by consumer demand for fresh, convenient, and experiential dining options.
Positioning
First Watch positions itself as a leader in the daytime dining segment, emphasizing fresh ingredients, innovative menu items, and a welcoming atmosphere. Its competitive advantage lies in its focus on quality and a differentiated dining experience.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for breakfast, brunch, and lunch in the US is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars. First Watch, with its focus on quality and customer experience, aims to capture a significant share of this market through strategic expansion and menu innovation.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Strong brand recognition
- High-quality ingredients
- Innovative menu offerings
- Focus on daytime dining
- Experienced management team
Weaknesses
- Limited operating hours (breakfast, brunch, and lunch only)
- Sensitivity to food cost inflation
- Reliance on consistent execution across locations
- Higher price point than some competitors
- Geographic concentration in certain regions
Opportunities
- Expansion into new markets
- Menu innovation and seasonal offerings
- Increased focus on digital ordering and delivery
- Development of loyalty programs
- Potential for international expansion
Threats
- Increased competition from other breakfast, brunch, and lunch restaurants
- Economic downturn affecting consumer spending
- Rising food and labor costs
- Changes in consumer preferences
- Supply chain disruptions
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- DIN
- WEN
- CBRL
Competitive Landscape
First Watch competes with both chain and independent breakfast, brunch, and lunch restaurants. Its strengths lie in its fresh ingredients, innovative menu, and focus on the daytime dining experience. Weaknesses include higher price point and limited operating hours compared to some competitors. Current market share for all companies cannot be accurately reflected without current year data.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: First Watch has experienced significant growth in recent years, driven by new restaurant openings and same-store sales growth.
Future Projections: Analyst estimates suggest continued growth for First Watch, driven by expansion plans and strong brand performance.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include menu innovation, expansion of digital ordering capabilities, and strategic acquisitions.
Summary
First Watch is a growing restaurant chain focused on the breakfast, brunch, and lunch segment. The company differentiates itself through fresh ingredients and an innovative menu. It faces challenges such as competition and rising costs, but its expansion plans and brand strength position it for continued growth. Key to First Watch's success will be its ability to maintain consistent quality and execute its expansion strategy effectively.
Peer Comparison
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- Company website
- Analyst reports
- Industry publications
- SEC filings
Disclaimers:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market share estimates are approximate and may vary based on source and methodology. Financial data requires current year reporting
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
Exchange NASDAQ | Headquaters Bradenton, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 2021-10-01 | CEO, President & Director Mr. Christopher A. Tomasso | ||
Sector Consumer Cyclical | Industry Restaurants | Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
Full time employees 15000 | Website https://www.firstwatch.com |
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.

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