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Geo Group Inc (GEO)




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Upturn Advisory Summary
07/29/2025: GEO (5-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
1 Year Target Price $41.8
1 Year Target Price $41.8
4 | Strong Buy |
0 | Buy |
0 | Hold |
0 | Sell |
0 | Strong Sell |
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 191.5% | Avg. Invested days 68 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Star Rating ![]() ![]() | Upturn Advisory Performance ![]() | Stock Returns Performance ![]() |
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Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 3.61B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 116.18 | 1Y Target Price 41.8 |
Price to earnings Ratio 116.18 | 1Y Target Price 41.8 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4 | Beta 0.71 | 52 Weeks Range 11.75 - 36.46 | Updated Date 07/29/2025 |
52 Weeks Range 11.75 - 36.46 | Updated Date 07/29/2025 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 0.22 |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2025-08-06 | When - | Estimate 0.17 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin 1.19% | Operating Margin (TTM) 10.09% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 5.01% | Return on Equity (TTM) 2.17% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 116.18 | Forward PE 23.26 | Enterprise Value 5390525039 | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.49 |
Enterprise Value 5390525039 | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.49 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.23 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 15.99 | Shares Outstanding 141343008 | Shares Floating 124068836 |
Shares Outstanding 141343008 | Shares Floating 124068836 | ||
Percent Insiders 4.58 | Percent Institutions 91.03 |
Upturn AI SWOT
Geo Group Inc

Company Overview
History and Background
The Geo Group Inc. (GEO) was founded in 1984 as Wackenhut Corrections Corporation. It initially focused on providing secure correctional facilities. Over time, it expanded its services to include community-based facilities and electronic monitoring. The company rebranded as The Geo Group in 2003.
Core Business Areas
- U.S. Secure Services: Manages secure correctional and detention facilities, providing housing, medical care, and rehabilitation programs for inmates. This includes federal, state, and local government contracts.
- Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services: Offers electronic monitoring services and supervision programs for offenders in community settings, often as an alternative to incarceration. This segment involves tracking technologies and case management.
- International Services: Operates correctional and detention facilities outside the United States, providing similar services as the U.S. Secure Services segment, adjusted for local regulations and cultural contexts.
Leadership and Structure
George C. Zoley serves as the Executive Chairman of the Board. Brian R. Evans is the Chief Executive Officer. The company operates under a board of directors and has a management team overseeing different operational areas.
Top Products and Market Share
Key Offerings
- Secure Correctional Facilities: GEO Group's primary offering, providing housing and services for inmates under government contracts. Competitors include CoreCivic and Management & Training Corporation. Market share data is difficult to pinpoint exactly, but GEO is a major player.
- Electronic Monitoring: Technology and services for supervising offenders outside of traditional facilities. Competitors include BI Incorporated (owned by Securus Technologies) and Attenti. The electronic monitoring market is growing, offering alternatives to incarceration.
Market Dynamics
Industry Overview
The correctional facilities industry is driven by government spending and incarceration rates. There is increased scrutiny regarding the use of private prisons, with a trend towards decarceration and alternatives to incarceration.
Positioning
GEO Group is a leading provider of private correctional facilities and community-based services. Its competitive advantages include its scale, experience, and relationships with government agencies. However, increasing political and social pressure against private prisons pose a significant challenge.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The total addressable market for correctional services and community corrections is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars annually. GEO Group's positioning allows it to capture a portion of this market, although factors such as government policy impact this significantly.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Established relationships with government agencies
- Diversified service offerings (secure facilities, electronic monitoring)
- Scale and operational expertise
- Geographic diversification (international operations)
Weaknesses
- High debt levels
- Reputational risks associated with private prisons
- Dependence on government contracts
- Vulnerability to changes in government policy
Opportunities
- Expansion of electronic monitoring and community-based programs
- Potential growth in international markets
- Diversification into related services (e.g., rehabilitation programs)
- Addressing the understaffing issues facing governmental correction facilities.
Threats
- Decreasing incarceration rates
- Government policies against private prisons
- Negative public perception
- Competition from other private prison operators and government-run facilities
Competitors and Market Share
Key Competitors
- CXW
- MTG
Competitive Landscape
GEO Group faces competition from other private prison operators and government-run facilities. Its advantages include scale and experience, but it faces disadvantages related to reputational risks and political pressure.
Major Acquisitions
BI Incorporated (formerly owned by GEO Group)
- Year: 2021
- Acquisition Price (USD millions): 360
- Strategic Rationale: Sold the company as part of the strategic asset sales plan.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Historically, GEO Group's growth has been tied to government spending on corrections and detention. However, recent trends have presented challenges.
Future Projections: Future growth projections are uncertain due to policy shifts. Analysts' estimates vary, depending on their views of the private prison industry's prospects. Recent initiatives such as investing in alternatives to incarceration will be a key indicator.
Recent Initiatives: GEO Group has focused on reducing debt, diversifying into community-based programs, and expanding its electronic monitoring services.
Summary
GEO Group is a major player in the private correctional facilities industry facing considerable headwinds. Its large scale and existing government relationships are positives, but high debt and negative sentiment against private prisons are significant challenges. It is actively seeking diversification via community-based services and debt management. Government policy will dictate the company's prospects and they must continue diversification to mitigate risks.
Peer Comparison
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- SEC filings
- Company reports
- Industry analysis reports
- Market research reports
Disclaimers:
This analysis is based on publicly available information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Market share data is approximate and based on available estimates. Financial data should be verified with official sources.
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
About Geo Group Inc
Exchange NYSE | Headquaters Boca Raton, FL, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 1994-07-26 | CEO - | ||
Sector Industrials | Industry Security & Protection Services | Full time employees 16500 | Website https://www.geogroup.com |
Full time employees 16500 | Website https://www.geogroup.com |
The GEO Group, Inc. owns, leases, operates, and manages secure facilities, processing centers, and community-based reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, and South Africa. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services; Reentry Services; and International Services. It also provides secure facility management services, including the provision of security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services; reentry services, such as temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; electronic monitoring and supervision services; and secure transportation services, as well as designs, constructs, and finances new facilities through projects. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

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