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Geo Group Inc (GEO)

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Upturn Advisory Summary
11/03/2025: GEO (5-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
1 Year Target Price $39.75
1 Year Target Price $39.75
| 4 | Strong Buy | 
| 0 | Buy | 
| 0 | Hold | 
| 0 | Sell | 
| 0 | Strong Sell | 
Analysis of Past Performance
 Type  Stock  |  Historic Profit  191.5%  |  Avg. Invested days  68  |  Today’s Advisory  PASS   | 
 Upturn Star Rating  ![]()  |  Upturn Advisory Performance   |  Stock Returns Performance   | 
Key Highlights
 Company Size  Mid-Cap Stock   |  Market Capitalization  2.38B  USD   |  Price to earnings Ratio  25.86   |  1Y Target Price  39.75   | 
 Price to earnings Ratio  25.86   |  1Y Target Price  39.75   | ||
 Volume (30-day avg)  4   |  Beta  0.77   |  52 Weeks Range  14.47 - 36.46   |  Updated Date  11/3/2025   | 
 52 Weeks Range  14.47 - 36.46   |  Updated Date  11/3/2025   | ||
 Dividends yield (FY)  -   |  Basic EPS (TTM)  0.65   | 
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
 Report Date  2025-10-30   |  When  -   |  Estimate  0.24   |  Actual  -   | 
Profitability
 Profit Margin  3.69%   |  Operating Margin (TTM)  11.31%   | 
Management Effectiveness
 Return on Assets (TTM)  4.88%   |  Return on Equity (TTM)  6.79%   | 
Valuation
 Trailing PE  25.86   |  Forward PE  24.04   |  Enterprise Value  4559920415   |  Price to Sales(TTM)  0.97   | 
 Enterprise Value  4559920415   |  Price to Sales(TTM)  0.97   | ||
 Enterprise Value to Revenue  1.86   |  Enterprise Value to EBITDA  10.83   |  Shares Outstanding  141534615   |  Shares Floating  133087024   | 
 Shares Outstanding  141534615   |  Shares Floating  133087024   | ||
 Percent Insiders  4.38   |  Percent Institutions  91.9   | 
 Upturn AI SWOT 
Geo Group Inc

Company Overview
 History and Background 
The GEO Group, Inc. was founded in 1984. It has grown to become one of the largest private prison operators in the United States, expanding into facility management, electronic monitoring, and community-based services.
 Core Business Areas 
- U.S. Secure Services: This segment focuses on the ownership, lease, and management of secure correctional and detention facilities in the United States.
 - GEO Care: This segment provides community-based services, youth services, and electronic monitoring services. It includes services for individuals with behavioral health needs.
 - International Services: This segment involves the management of correctional and detention facilities outside the United States.
 
 Leadership and Structure 
George C. Zoley is the Executive Chairman of the Board. The CEO is Brian R. Evans. The company is structured with operational divisions for US Secure Services, GEO Care, and International Services, with central support functions such as finance, legal, and human resources.
Top Products and Market Share
 Key Offerings 
- Secure Correctional Facilities: GEO Group operates and manages secure correctional and detention facilities for government agencies. Market share data is difficult to pinpoint exactly but estimates place GEO Group as a leader among private prison operators. Competitors include CoreCivic (CXW). Specific revenue from this sector is not publicly available but makes up the majority of revenues.
 - Electronic Monitoring Services: GEO Care provides electronic monitoring services for offenders and defendants in the community. Market share information is not readily available, but this represents a smaller portion of overall revenue compared to secure facilities. Competitors in this space include BI Incorporated (a subsidiary of Securus Technologies) and other smaller monitoring companies. Specific revenue from this sector is not publicly available.
 - Community-Based Reentry Programs: GEO Care offers community-based reentry programs designed to help offenders reintegrate into society. Market share information is fragmented in this sector, comprised of non profits and a multitude of smaller companies. Specific revenue from this sector is not publicly available.
 
Market Dynamics
 Industry Overview 
The private prison industry is influenced by government policies, crime rates, and budget constraints. Recent trends include increasing scrutiny of private prison operations and a move towards rehabilitation and community-based alternatives.
Positioning
GEO Group is one of the largest players in the private prison industry, holding contracts with federal, state, and local governments. Competitive advantages include scale, experience, and established relationships with government agencies.
Total Addressable Market (TAM)
The TAM for correctional facilities and related services is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars annually. GEO Group is positioned to capture a portion of this TAM through its established operations and relationships, however there is an increasing trend of governments looking to pull back from private prisons.
Upturn SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Established relationships with government agencies
 - Large scale of operations
 - Experience in facility management
 - Diversified service offerings
 
Weaknesses
- Dependence on government contracts
 - Negative public perception
 - Exposure to legal and regulatory risks
 - High debt levels
 
Opportunities
- Expansion into international markets
 - Growth in community-based services
 - Development of new technologies for facility management
 - Increased demand for alternatives to incarceration
 
Threats
- Changes in government policies
 - Increased competition
 - Economic downturn
 - Negative publicity and litigation
 
Competitors and Market Share
 Key Competitors 
- CXW
 
Competitive Landscape
GEO Group and CXW are the major players in the US market. It's advantages come from economies of scale and the breadth of its services. Disadvantages include public perception.
Growth Trajectory and Initiatives
Historical Growth: Historical growth has been driven by acquisitions and expansion of facility management contracts. Growth has slowed recently due to changes in government policy.
Future Projections: Future growth projections are uncertain due to the changing political landscape. Analyst estimates vary widely depending on their assumptions about government policy. The future looks to be less about growth and more about managing existing assets.
Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include focusing on cost efficiencies and managing debt.
Summary
GEO Group is a major player in the private corrections industry but faces considerable headwinds. Its strengths lie in its scale and established relationships, but it is vulnerable to changes in government policy and negative public perception. The company needs to manage its debt effectively and adapt to the evolving landscape of correctional services. Its future is uncertain.
Similar Stocks
Sources and Disclaimers
Data Sources:
- SEC Filings
 - Company Website
 - Industry Reports
 - Market Analysis Reports
 
Disclaimers:
The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made based on individual research and consultation with a qualified financial advisor. Market share data is estimates and may not be precise.
 AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate. 
 Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current. 
 Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data. 
 AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action. 
About Geo Group Inc
 Exchange  NYSE   |  Headquaters  Boca Raton, FL, United States   | ||
 IPO Launch date  1994-07-26   |  CEO  -   | ||
 Sector  Industrials   |  Industry  Security & Protection Services   |  Full time employees  19000   |  Website  https://www.geogroup.com   | 
 Full time employees  19000   |  Website  https://www.geogroup.com   | ||
The GEO Group, Inc. owns, leases, operates, and manages secure facilities, processing centers, and community-based reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, and South Africa. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services; Reentry Services; and International Services. It also provides secure facility management services, including the provision of security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services; reentry services, such as temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; electronic monitoring and supervision services; and secure transportation services, as well as designs, constructs, and finances new facilities through projects. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

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