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Geo Group Inc(GEO)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GEO
10/09/2026: GEO (5-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Geo Group Inc is a specialized provider of secure detention, correctional facilities, and electronic monitoring technology for government agencies. Its primary strength lies in its scale and the integration of surveillance technology through its BI Incorporated segment, which provides a layer of diversification beyond traditional facility management. The company’s growth narrative centers on operational efficiency and aggressive debt reduction, aimed at stabilizing the balance sheet. Investors should monitor significant political and regulatory risks, as the company’s business model is highly sensitive to government policy shifts. Given the high debt and political exposure, the stock may best suit investors comfortable with volatility and policy-driven price swings.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Weak fit | The industry faces structural headwinds and regulatory scrutiny that limits aggressive long-term growth. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock can experience significant moves based on shifts in government contracting policy and election cycles. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | The company trades at valuations reflecting its high debt load and political risk, which may present value if deleveraging succeeds. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | The company currently does not prioritize dividend distributions, focusing instead on debt management. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High regulatory, political, and financial leverage risks create significant volatility for risk-averse investors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | The stock price is highly sensitive to political rhetoric and government policy changes regarding detention. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market sentiment heavily discounts the stock due to the ESG profile of private corrections. |
| Competition risk (Direct industry competitors) | Medium | The sector is limited to a few players, but federal procurement processes are highly competitive. |
| Business quality | Medium | The business provides essential services but faces systemic pressure against the private ownership of detention. |
| Dividend income | Low / none | Current corporate strategy prioritizes debt reduction over returning capital to shareholders via dividends. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Maintaining complex facilities and high security standards across multiple jurisdictions requires significant operational oversight. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 366.2% | Avg. Invested days 69 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/09/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.10B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 14.55 | 1Y Target Price 39 |
Price to earnings Ratio 14.55 | 1Y Target Price 39 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.7M shares | Beta 0.77 | 52 Weeks Range 12.51 - 33.17 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 12.51 - 33.17 | Updated Date 10/09/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) - | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.14 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Secure Services | Management fees for detention centers and correctional facilities. | The company earns revenue by contracting with federal and state agencies to house inmates and detainees. |
| Electronic Monitoring | BI Incorporated GPS tracking, smartphone reporting, and voice verification. | Provides technology tools used by governments to monitor individuals under community supervision. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 14.55 | Forward PE 18.98 | Enterprise Value 5.58B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.45 |
Enterprise Value 5.58B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.45 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.97 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 8.16 | Shares Outstanding 131.62M | Shares Floating 112.43M |
Shares Outstanding 131.62M | Shares Floating 112.43M | ||
Percent Insiders 5.19 | Percent Institutions 94.55 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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