GEO official logo GEO
GEO 3-star rating from Upturn Advisory
Geo Group Inc (GEO) company logo

Geo Group Inc (GEO)

Geo Group Inc (GEO) 3-star rating from Upturn Advisory
$16.53
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Upturn Advisory Summary

12/18/2025: GEO (3-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Upturn Star Rating

Upturn 3 star rating for performance

Moderate Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, typically align with the market average, offering steady but unremarkable returns.

Number of Analysts

1 star rating from financial analysts

4 Analysts rated it

Very few follow this stock; limited insights, higher-risk early investing.

1 Year Target Price $32.25

1 Year Target Price $32.25

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$32.25 Target price
52w Low $14.27
Current$16.53
52w High $36.46

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 191.5%
Avg. Invested days 68
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Star Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance icon 3.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance icon 5.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation icon Profits based on simulation
Upturn last close icon Last Close 12/18/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Mid-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 2.34B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 9.78
1Y Target Price 32.25
Price to earnings Ratio 9.78
1Y Target Price 32.25
Volume (30-day avg) 4
Beta 0.7
52 Weeks Range 14.27 - 36.46
Updated Date 12/18/2025
52 Weeks Range 14.27 - 36.46
Updated Date 12/18/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 1.69

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Revenue by Geography

Geography revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date -
When -
Estimate -
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 9.41%
Operating Margin (TTM) 11.48%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 4.72%
Return on Equity (TTM) 16.8%

Valuation

Trailing PE 9.78
Forward PE 24.04
Enterprise Value 3755715360
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.92
Enterprise Value 3755715360
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.92
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.48
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 6.18
Shares Outstanding 139197249
Shares Floating 131009584
Shares Outstanding 139197249
Shares Floating 131009584
Percent Insiders 4.45
Percent Institutions 94.93

Icon representing Upturn AI-generated SWOT analysis summary Upturn AI SWOT

Geo Group Inc

Geo Group Inc(GEO) company logo displayed in Upturn AI summary

Company Overview

Company history and background logo History and Background

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) was founded in 1984 as a provider of corrections and detention management services. It has since expanded to include a diversified portfolio of correctional, detention, and community reentry facilities, as well as providing a range of correctional services. The company has grown through acquisitions and contract awards, becoming one of the largest private operators of correctional and detention facilities in the world.

Company business area logo Core Business Areas

  • U.S. Corrections & Detentions: This segment primarily involves the management and operation of correctional and detention facilities in the United States. GEO partners with federal, state, and local government agencies to provide secure and humane environments for inmates and detainees. Services include facility management, security, healthcare, and rehabilitation programs.
  • Electronic Monitoring & Community Reentry: This segment offers electronic monitoring services, including GPS tracking and home confinement, for individuals under correctional supervision. It also includes the operation of community reentry centers that provide residential and non-residential services aimed at helping individuals successfully reintegrate into society, including job placement assistance, counseling, and life skills training.
  • International Services: GEO operates correctional facilities and provides related services in several countries outside the United States, including Australia and the United Kingdom. These services are similar to those offered in the U.S., tailored to the specific needs of the international partners.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

The GEO Group, Inc. is a publicly traded company led by a Board of Directors and a senior executive management team. Key leadership roles typically include a Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Chief Financial Officer (CFO), and heads of various operational and functional departments. The company operates through its various subsidiaries and divisions, reflecting its diverse service offerings.

Top Products and Market Share

Product Key Offerings logo Key Offerings

  • Facility Management (Corrections & Detention): Provides comprehensive management and operation of correctional and detention facilities for government clients. Competitors include CoreCivic (CXW), Management and Training Corporation (MTC), and LaSalle Corrections. Market share data is difficult to isolate for individual services but GEO is a major player in the private prison market.
  • Electronic Monitoring Services: Offers a range of electronic monitoring solutions for probationers and parolees. Competitors include BI Incorporated (a Geo Group subsidiary, but also faces external competition), Corrisoft, and Sentinel Offender Services. Market share is fragmented across various technology providers and service providers.
  • Community Reentry Services: Operates residential and non-residential centers to support individuals transitioning back into the community, including employment services and rehabilitation programs. Competitors include various non-profit organizations and other private providers focusing on recidivism reduction.

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The correctional services industry is largely driven by government spending on corrections and detention. The private sector plays a significant role in managing facilities and providing related services. The industry is influenced by government policies, incarceration rates, and public perception of private corrections. There is ongoing debate and scrutiny regarding the ethics and effectiveness of private correctional facilities.

Positioning

GEO Group is one of the largest private operators of correctional and detention facilities globally. Its competitive advantages include its established relationships with government agencies, extensive operational experience, diversified service offerings, and a significant portfolio of owned and leased facilities. However, the company faces reputational risks and the potential for regulatory changes that could impact its business model.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The TAM for correctional services is substantial, encompassing government budgets allocated to corrections, detention, and offender rehabilitation. While GEO operates within this broad market, its specific TAM is defined by the government contracts it can secure and the services it provides. The company is a leading player in the private sector segment of this market.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Extensive experience and operational expertise in managing correctional facilities.
  • Strong relationships with government agencies at federal, state, and local levels.
  • Diversified service offerings, including electronic monitoring and reentry services.
  • Significant portfolio of owned and leased facilities, providing operational flexibility.
  • Economies of scale due to its size and operational footprint.

Weaknesses

  • Reputational challenges and public scrutiny associated with private prisons.
  • Dependence on government contracts, which can be subject to political shifts and budget constraints.
  • Potential for regulatory changes that could negatively impact profitability or operations.
  • High capital expenditure requirements for facility development and maintenance.

Opportunities

  • Expansion of electronic monitoring and community reentry services to address recidivism.
  • Potential for new contract awards from government agencies seeking cost-effective solutions.
  • Leveraging technology to improve operational efficiency and service delivery.
  • Opportunities for international expansion or partnerships.

Threats

  • Increased political pressure to reduce reliance on private prison operators.
  • Competition from other private providers and potential for in-house government operations.
  • Litigation and legal challenges related to facility operations and inmate care.
  • Economic downturns that could lead to reduced government spending on corrections.
  • Evolving societal views on incarceration and criminal justice reform.

Competitors and Market Share

Key competitor logo Key Competitors

  • CXW
  • MTC

Competitive Landscape

GEO Group's competitive advantages lie in its scale, experience, and established client relationships. However, competitors like CoreCivic (CXW) and Management and Training Corporation (MTC) are also significant players with similar capabilities. The landscape is characterized by a bidding process for government contracts, where price, experience, and compliance are key factors. Differentiation can come from specialized services or operational efficiencies.

Major Acquisitions

BI Incorporated

  • Year: 2011
  • Acquisition Price (USD millions): 425
  • Strategic Rationale: Acquisition of BI Incorporated, a leading provider of electronic monitoring and offender management technology, significantly expanded GEO's presence in the electronic monitoring and community reentry services sector, diversifying its revenue streams and strengthening its position in the correctional services continuum.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: GEO Group's historical growth has been driven by strategic acquisitions, contract expansions, and the development of new facilities. The company has aimed to diversify its revenue streams beyond traditional corrections into areas like electronic monitoring and community reentry.

Future Projections: Future growth projections are typically based on analyst estimates and the company's own guidance. These projections often consider the potential for new government contracts, the expansion of existing services, and the successful integration of any acquired businesses. However, the industry's reliance on government funding and potential regulatory changes create inherent uncertainties.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives may include efforts to enhance technology adoption in facility management and monitoring, expanding community reentry programs to address recidivism, and seeking new government partnerships. The company may also be focused on optimizing its existing portfolio and divesting underperforming assets.

Summary

GEO Group Inc is a major player in the private correctional services industry, with a strong history of managing government facilities and providing related services. Its diversification into electronic monitoring and reentry programs offers growth potential. However, the company faces significant challenges from public scrutiny, regulatory risks, and dependence on government contracts, which necessitate careful management of its operational and reputational aspects.

Similar Stocks

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • Company SEC Filings (10-K, 10-Q)
  • Investor Relations Websites
  • Financial News and Analysis Platforms

Disclaimers:

This analysis is based on publicly available information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

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Information icon for Upturn AI Summarization data freshness disclaimer Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Information icon warning about Upturn AI Fundamental Rating based on potentially old data Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

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About Geo Group Inc

Exchange NYSE
Headquaters Boca Raton, FL, United States
IPO Launch date 1994-07-26
CEO -
Sector Industrials
Industry Security & Protection Services
Full time employees 20000
Full time employees 20000

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO's diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO's worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 95 facilities totaling approximately 75,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees.