GEO logo GEO
Upturn stock rating
GEO logo

Geo Group Inc (GEO)

Upturn stock rating
$16.81
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PASS
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Upturn Advisory Summary

11/03/2025: GEO (5-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Upturn Star Rating

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Outstanding Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, have historically outperformed the market, making them a top-tier choice for investors.

Number of Analysts

rating

4 Analysts rated it

Very few follow this stock; limited insights, higher-risk early investing.

1 Year Target Price $39.75

1 Year Target Price $39.75

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$39.75 Target price
52w Low $14.47
Current$16.81
52w High $36.46

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 191.5%
Avg. Invested days 68
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Star Rating upturn star rating icon
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 3.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 5.0
Upturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 11/03/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Mid-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 2.38B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 25.86
1Y Target Price 39.75
Price to earnings Ratio 25.86
1Y Target Price 39.75
Volume (30-day avg) 4
Beta 0.77
52 Weeks Range 14.47 - 36.46
Updated Date 11/3/2025
52 Weeks Range 14.47 - 36.46
Updated Date 11/3/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 0.65

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Revenue by Geography

Geography revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date 2025-10-30
When -
Estimate 0.24
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 3.69%
Operating Margin (TTM) 11.31%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 4.88%
Return on Equity (TTM) 6.79%

Valuation

Trailing PE 25.86
Forward PE 24.04
Enterprise Value 4559920415
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.97
Enterprise Value 4559920415
Price to Sales(TTM) 0.97
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.86
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 10.83
Shares Outstanding 141534615
Shares Floating 133087024
Shares Outstanding 141534615
Shares Floating 133087024
Percent Insiders 4.38
Percent Institutions 91.9

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

Geo Group Inc

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

The GEO Group, Inc. was founded in 1984. It has grown to become one of the largest private prison operators in the United States, expanding into facility management, electronic monitoring, and community-based services.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • U.S. Secure Services: This segment focuses on the ownership, lease, and management of secure correctional and detention facilities in the United States.
  • GEO Care: This segment provides community-based services, youth services, and electronic monitoring services. It includes services for individuals with behavioral health needs.
  • International Services: This segment involves the management of correctional and detention facilities outside the United States.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

George C. Zoley is the Executive Chairman of the Board. The CEO is Brian R. Evans. The company is structured with operational divisions for US Secure Services, GEO Care, and International Services, with central support functions such as finance, legal, and human resources.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Secure Correctional Facilities: GEO Group operates and manages secure correctional and detention facilities for government agencies. Market share data is difficult to pinpoint exactly but estimates place GEO Group as a leader among private prison operators. Competitors include CoreCivic (CXW). Specific revenue from this sector is not publicly available but makes up the majority of revenues.
  • Electronic Monitoring Services: GEO Care provides electronic monitoring services for offenders and defendants in the community. Market share information is not readily available, but this represents a smaller portion of overall revenue compared to secure facilities. Competitors in this space include BI Incorporated (a subsidiary of Securus Technologies) and other smaller monitoring companies. Specific revenue from this sector is not publicly available.
  • Community-Based Reentry Programs: GEO Care offers community-based reentry programs designed to help offenders reintegrate into society. Market share information is fragmented in this sector, comprised of non profits and a multitude of smaller companies. Specific revenue from this sector is not publicly available.

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The private prison industry is influenced by government policies, crime rates, and budget constraints. Recent trends include increasing scrutiny of private prison operations and a move towards rehabilitation and community-based alternatives.

Positioning

GEO Group is one of the largest players in the private prison industry, holding contracts with federal, state, and local governments. Competitive advantages include scale, experience, and established relationships with government agencies.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The TAM for correctional facilities and related services is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars annually. GEO Group is positioned to capture a portion of this TAM through its established operations and relationships, however there is an increasing trend of governments looking to pull back from private prisons.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Established relationships with government agencies
  • Large scale of operations
  • Experience in facility management
  • Diversified service offerings

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on government contracts
  • Negative public perception
  • Exposure to legal and regulatory risks
  • High debt levels

Opportunities

  • Expansion into international markets
  • Growth in community-based services
  • Development of new technologies for facility management
  • Increased demand for alternatives to incarceration

Threats

  • Changes in government policies
  • Increased competition
  • Economic downturn
  • Negative publicity and litigation

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • CXW

Competitive Landscape

GEO Group and CXW are the major players in the US market. It's advantages come from economies of scale and the breadth of its services. Disadvantages include public perception.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: Historical growth has been driven by acquisitions and expansion of facility management contracts. Growth has slowed recently due to changes in government policy.

Future Projections: Future growth projections are uncertain due to the changing political landscape. Analyst estimates vary widely depending on their assumptions about government policy. The future looks to be less about growth and more about managing existing assets.

Recent Initiatives: Recent initiatives include focusing on cost efficiencies and managing debt.

Summary

GEO Group is a major player in the private corrections industry but faces considerable headwinds. Its strengths lie in its scale and established relationships, but it is vulnerable to changes in government policy and negative public perception. The company needs to manage its debt effectively and adapt to the evolving landscape of correctional services. Its future is uncertain.

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Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • SEC Filings
  • Company Website
  • Industry Reports
  • Market Analysis Reports

Disclaimers:

The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made based on individual research and consultation with a qualified financial advisor. Market share data is estimates and may not be precise.

Upturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About Geo Group Inc

Exchange NYSE
Headquaters Boca Raton, FL, United States
IPO Launch date 1994-07-26
CEO -
Sector Industrials
Industry Security & Protection Services
Full time employees 19000
Full time employees 19000

The GEO Group, Inc. owns, leases, operates, and manages secure facilities, processing centers, and community-based reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, and South Africa. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services; Reentry Services; and International Services. It also provides secure facility management services, including the provision of security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services; reentry services, such as temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; electronic monitoring and supervision services; and secure transportation services, as well as designs, constructs, and finances new facilities through projects. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.