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GEO logo GEO
Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
GEO logo

Geo Group Inc (GEO)

Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
$25.56
Last Close (24-hour delay)
Today's Top Performer Top performer
upturn advisory
PASS
  • BUY Advisory
  • SELL Advisory (Profit)​
  • SELL Advisory (Loss)​
  • Profit
  • Loss
  • Pass (Skip investing)
Upturn Stock infoUpturn Stock info Stock price based on last close
*as per simulation
(see disclosures)
Time period over
  • ALL
  • YEAR
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Upturn Advisory Summary

07/29/2025: GEO (5-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.

Upturn Star Rating

rating

Outstanding Performance

These Stocks/ETFs, based on Upturn Advisory, have historically outperformed the market, making them a top-tier choice for investors.

Number of Analysts

rating

4 Analysts rated it

Very few follow this stock; limited insights, higher-risk early investing.

1 Year Target Price $41.8

1 Year Target Price $41.8

Analysts Price Target For last 52 week
$41.8 Target price
52w Low $11.75
Current$25.56
52w High $36.46

Analysis of Past Performance

Type Stock
Historic Profit 191.5%
Avg. Invested days 68
Today’s Advisory PASS
Upturn Star Rating Upturn stock ratingUpturn stock rating
Upturn Advisory Performance Upturn Advisory Performance 3.0
Stock Returns Performance Upturn Returns Performance 5.0
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Profits based on simulation
Upturn Profits based on simulationUpturn Profits based on simulation Last Close 07/29/2025

Key Highlights

Company Size Mid-Cap Stock
Market Capitalization 3.61B USD
Price to earnings Ratio 116.18
1Y Target Price 41.8
Price to earnings Ratio 116.18
1Y Target Price 41.8
Volume (30-day avg) 4
Beta 0.71
52 Weeks Range 11.75 - 36.46
Updated Date 07/29/2025
52 Weeks Range 11.75 - 36.46
Updated Date 07/29/2025
Dividends yield (FY) -
Basic EPS (TTM) 0.22

Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth

Revenue by Products

Product revenue - Year on Year

Revenue by Geography

Geography revenue - Year on Year

Earnings Date

Report Date 2025-08-06
When -
Estimate 0.17
Actual -

Profitability

Profit Margin 1.19%
Operating Margin (TTM) 10.09%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (TTM) 5.01%
Return on Equity (TTM) 2.17%

Valuation

Trailing PE 116.18
Forward PE 23.26
Enterprise Value 5390525039
Price to Sales(TTM) 1.49
Enterprise Value 5390525039
Price to Sales(TTM) 1.49
Enterprise Value to Revenue 2.23
Enterprise Value to EBITDA 15.99
Shares Outstanding 141343008
Shares Floating 124068836
Shares Outstanding 141343008
Shares Floating 124068836
Percent Insiders 4.58
Percent Institutions 91.03

ai summary icon Upturn AI SWOT

Geo Group Inc

stock logo

Company Overview

overview logo History and Background

The Geo Group Inc. (GEO) was founded in 1984 as Wackenhut Corrections Corporation. It initially focused on providing secure correctional facilities. Over time, it expanded its services to include community-based facilities and electronic monitoring. The company rebranded as The Geo Group in 2003.

business area logo Core Business Areas

  • U.S. Secure Services: Manages secure correctional and detention facilities, providing housing, medical care, and rehabilitation programs for inmates. This includes federal, state, and local government contracts.
  • Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services: Offers electronic monitoring services and supervision programs for offenders in community settings, often as an alternative to incarceration. This segment involves tracking technologies and case management.
  • International Services: Operates correctional and detention facilities outside the United States, providing similar services as the U.S. Secure Services segment, adjusted for local regulations and cultural contexts.

leadership logo Leadership and Structure

George C. Zoley serves as the Executive Chairman of the Board. Brian R. Evans is the Chief Executive Officer. The company operates under a board of directors and has a management team overseeing different operational areas.

Top Products and Market Share

overview logo Key Offerings

  • Secure Correctional Facilities: GEO Group's primary offering, providing housing and services for inmates under government contracts. Competitors include CoreCivic and Management & Training Corporation. Market share data is difficult to pinpoint exactly, but GEO is a major player.
  • Electronic Monitoring: Technology and services for supervising offenders outside of traditional facilities. Competitors include BI Incorporated (owned by Securus Technologies) and Attenti. The electronic monitoring market is growing, offering alternatives to incarceration.

Market Dynamics

industry overview logo Industry Overview

The correctional facilities industry is driven by government spending and incarceration rates. There is increased scrutiny regarding the use of private prisons, with a trend towards decarceration and alternatives to incarceration.

Positioning

GEO Group is a leading provider of private correctional facilities and community-based services. Its competitive advantages include its scale, experience, and relationships with government agencies. However, increasing political and social pressure against private prisons pose a significant challenge.

Total Addressable Market (TAM)

The total addressable market for correctional services and community corrections is estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars annually. GEO Group's positioning allows it to capture a portion of this market, although factors such as government policy impact this significantly.

Upturn SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • Established relationships with government agencies
  • Diversified service offerings (secure facilities, electronic monitoring)
  • Scale and operational expertise
  • Geographic diversification (international operations)

Weaknesses

  • High debt levels
  • Reputational risks associated with private prisons
  • Dependence on government contracts
  • Vulnerability to changes in government policy

Opportunities

  • Expansion of electronic monitoring and community-based programs
  • Potential growth in international markets
  • Diversification into related services (e.g., rehabilitation programs)
  • Addressing the understaffing issues facing governmental correction facilities.

Threats

  • Decreasing incarceration rates
  • Government policies against private prisons
  • Negative public perception
  • Competition from other private prison operators and government-run facilities

Competitors and Market Share

competitor logo Key Competitors

  • CXW
  • MTG

Competitive Landscape

GEO Group faces competition from other private prison operators and government-run facilities. Its advantages include scale and experience, but it faces disadvantages related to reputational risks and political pressure.

Major Acquisitions

BI Incorporated (formerly owned by GEO Group)

  • Year: 2021
  • Acquisition Price (USD millions): 360
  • Strategic Rationale: Sold the company as part of the strategic asset sales plan.

Growth Trajectory and Initiatives

Historical Growth: Historically, GEO Group's growth has been tied to government spending on corrections and detention. However, recent trends have presented challenges.

Future Projections: Future growth projections are uncertain due to policy shifts. Analysts' estimates vary, depending on their views of the private prison industry's prospects. Recent initiatives such as investing in alternatives to incarceration will be a key indicator.

Recent Initiatives: GEO Group has focused on reducing debt, diversifying into community-based programs, and expanding its electronic monitoring services.

Summary

GEO Group is a major player in the private correctional facilities industry facing considerable headwinds. Its large scale and existing government relationships are positives, but high debt and negative sentiment against private prisons are significant challenges. It is actively seeking diversification via community-based services and debt management. Government policy will dictate the company's prospects and they must continue diversification to mitigate risks.

Peer Comparison

Sources and Disclaimers

Data Sources:

  • SEC filings
  • Company reports
  • Industry analysis reports
  • Market research reports

Disclaimers:

This analysis is based on publicly available information and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Market share data is approximate and based on available estimates. Financial data should be verified with official sources.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.

Upturn AI SummarizationUpturn AI Summarization AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.

About Geo Group Inc

Exchange NYSE
Headquaters Boca Raton, FL, United States
IPO Launch date 1994-07-26
CEO -
Sector Industrials
Industry Security & Protection Services
Full time employees 16500
Full time employees 16500

The GEO Group, Inc. owns, leases, operates, and manages secure facilities, processing centers, and community-based reentry facilities in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, and South Africa. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services; Reentry Services; and International Services. It also provides secure facility management services, including the provision of security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services; reentry services, such as temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; electronic monitoring and supervision services; and secure transportation services, as well as designs, constructs, and finances new facilities through projects. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.