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Upturn AI Summary - About
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc(GFL)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for GFL
10/23/2026: GFL (3-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 79 days. Simulated Profits (12.61%). Updated daily EoD!
GFL Environmental is a large, diversified provider of waste management and infrastructure services across North America, operating in a sector known for stable, recurring revenue. The company has built a strong market position through an aggressive acquisition strategy that continues to drive growth, though this model has resulted in significant leverage. Its main investment appeal lies in potential margin expansion and operational efficiencies as it shifts focus toward internal optimization. Key risks include high debt levels, which remain sensitive to interest rates, and the execution risk inherent in integrating massive acquisitions. It may best suit growth-oriented investors who can tolerate industrial-sector volatility and monitor the company's progress on deleveraging.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | The company continues to pursue aggressive expansion strategies that appeal to those seeking top-line growth. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Performance is often tied to market-wide sentiment on industrial stocks and interest rate cycles. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Current valuation is often premium, and leverage levels require careful scrutiny by value seekers. |
| Dividend investor | Weak fit | Capital is prioritized toward growth and debt reduction rather than significant dividend payouts. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | Higher debt levels and acquisition-related execution risks create volatility that may not suit risk-averse portfolios. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium / high | The stock is sensitive to interest rate expectations and broader industrial sector sentiment. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing often accounts for future growth, leaving little room for execution errors. |
| Competition risk | Medium | Large incumbents like WM and RSG possess deep operational moats and scale advantages. |
| Business quality | Medium / high | The company has strong recurring revenue characteristics typical of the utility-like waste sector. |
| Dividend income | Low | The company is not currently focused on high income generation for shareholders. |
| Execution risk | High | Successfully integrating numerous small acquisitions remains the primary driver of operational success. |
Price Behavior
Flat / Range-Bound
The stock price has been trading within a narrow range with minimal directional movement.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 21.68% | Avg. Invested days 62 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  5.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/23/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 16.44B USD | Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 51.48 |
Price to earnings Ratio - | 1Y Target Price 51.48 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 4.0M shares | Beta 0.51 | 52 Weeks Range 33.30 - 46.67 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 33.30 - 46.67 | Updated Date 10/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.19% | Basic EPS (TTM) -0.46 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Solid Waste | Collection and disposal of household and commercial trash. | This is the company's steady, recurring 'bread and butter' revenue. |
| Soil and Infrastructure | Soil treatment and specialized construction services. | This is a niche, value-add service that differentiates GFL from standard waste companies. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-10-28 | When After Market | Estimate 0.19 | Actual - |
Profitability
Profit Margin -2.87% | Operating Margin (TTM) 6.9% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 1.26% | Return on Equity (TTM) -2.25% |
Valuation
Trailing PE - | Forward PE 48.54 | Enterprise Value 22.06B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.36 |
Enterprise Value 22.06B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.36 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.8 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 16.19 | Shares Outstanding 349.08M | Shares Floating 274.74M |
Shares Outstanding 349.08M | Shares Floating 274.74M | ||
Percent Insiders 2.55 | Percent Institutions 90.03 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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