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HCI Group Inc(HCI)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
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Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for HCI
10/14/2026: HCI (4-star) is a STRONG-BUY. BUY for 2 days. Simulated Profits (-1.57%). Updated daily EoD!
HCI Group is a Florida-based holding company specializing in property and casualty insurance with a growing technology-driven segment called TypTap. The company has a leading position in the Florida homeowners market and is successfully scaling its data-focused underwriting model into new states. Its primary investment story hinges on this digital-first expansion, which aims to diversify its risk profile beyond the storm-prone Florida region. However, investors must weigh these opportunities against significant execution risks, regulatory pressures, and sensitivity to catastrophe-related losses. The stock may suit investors seeking exposure to the property insurance sector, and it has historically paid dividends, though it remains prone to volatility during peak storm seasons.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers growth potential through expansion but carries significant industry-specific risks. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | Strong market performance in recent periods makes this a candidate for momentum strategies when trends align. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation can be attractive depending on the insurance cycle, though earnings volatility complicates assessments. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company has a history of providing consistent dividend payments to shareholders. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | The business model is inherently subject to catastrophe risk and market volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Insurance stocks are highly sensitive to news regarding catastrophe events and regulatory changes. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Earnings volatility makes traditional valuation metrics like P/E ratio less predictive. |
| Competition risk (Insurance Market) | High | The sector faces intense competition from both well-capitalized national players and specialized insurers. |
| Business quality | Medium | While the technology platform is a differentiator, the underlying business is exposed to environmental risks. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Dividends are dependent on profitability, which can be impacted by large loss events. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Expansion into new states requires navigating different regulatory environments and managing new risk pools. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 145.25% | Avg. Invested days 57 | Today’s Advisory Strong Buy |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 10/14/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 2.47B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 8.57 | 1Y Target Price 241.67 |
Price to earnings Ratio 8.57 | 1Y Target Price 241.67 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 170.6K shares | Beta 1.05 | 52 Weeks Range 144.06 - 208.47 | Updated Date 10/14/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 144.06 - 208.47 | Updated Date 10/14/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.81% | Basic EPS (TTM) 23.2 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance Underwriting | Collecting premiums for homeowners, flood, and umbrella insurance policies. | The company earns money by collecting more in premiums than it pays out in claims and operating expenses. |
| Reinsurance | Internal and external reinsurance arrangements to manage catastrophe exposure. | This segment helps protect the company's balance sheet from large, unpredictable losses. |
| Real Estate & Technology | Real estate investments and insurance software licensing. | These secondary segments provide diversified revenue streams outside of core insurance underwriting. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 8.57 | Forward PE 8.9 | Enterprise Value 1.39B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.6 |
Enterprise Value 1.39B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.6 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.45 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 12.44M | Shares Floating 9.91M |
Shares Outstanding 12.44M | Shares Floating 9.91M | ||
Percent Insiders 14.66 | Percent Institutions 77.94 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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