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Upturn AI Summary - About
Progressive Corp(PGR)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for PGR
09/25/2026: PGR (2-star) is a SELL. SELL for 4 days. Simulated Profits (1.05%). Updated daily EoD!
The Progressive Corporation is a major provider of personal and commercial auto insurance, widely known for its data-driven pricing models and efficient direct-to-consumer distribution. The company has a leading position in the U.S. insurance market and has historically maintained strong margins through disciplined underwriting. Its primary growth strategy relies on the 'bundling' of home and auto insurance to increase customer retention. Key risks include intense pricing pressure from competitors, social inflation impacting claim costs, and reliance on the U.S. auto market. The stock may suit investors seeking long-term growth and exposure to a market-leading, tech-forward insurer, though its variable dividend and sensitivity to insurance-sector volatility should be considered.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Strong fit | Progressive has a multi-year track record of consistent revenue and policy growth in the competitive insurance sector. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock often exhibits strong price trends during periods of improving underwriting margins and market share gains. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation can often appear premium due to the company's strong performance and market-leading efficiency. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | The variable dividend structure may not suit investors looking for predictable, stable income streams. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While the business model is defensive, insurance sector volatility and underwriting risks mean it is not a risk-free investment. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | Insurance stocks can experience volatility around earnings releases depending on catastrophe losses or underwriting results. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Strong market performance can lead to elevated P/E multiples, making the stock sensitive to growth deceleration. |
| Competition risk (Price-based) | High | The auto insurance market is a commodity-like space where price wars and high advertising spend are constant pressures. |
| Business quality | Strong | Progressive is widely regarded for its highly disciplined underwriting and superior data-driven risk selection. |
| Dividend income | Medium | The variable nature of the dividend makes it less reliable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Maintaining underwriting profitability while simultaneously scaling the business requires precise operational execution. |
Price Behavior
Steady Uptrend
The stock demonstrates consistent and steady upward price momentum.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 37.73% | Avg. Invested days 52 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  3.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 09/25/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 119.27B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 10.31 | 1Y Target Price 231.38 |
Price to earnings Ratio 10.31 | 1Y Target Price 231.38 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 2.6M shares | Beta 0.26 | 52 Weeks Range 187.78 - 239.38 | Updated Date 09/25/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 187.78 - 239.38 | Updated Date 09/25/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 0.20% | Basic EPS (TTM) 19.93 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Premiums | Collecting insurance premiums from policyholders for personal and commercial auto, and property coverage. | The company earns the bulk of its revenue by collecting premiums upfront and paying out claims later. |
| Investment Income | Income generated from the float—investing premiums in fixed-income securities until claims are paid. | Progressive earns interest on the money it holds between receiving premiums and paying out insurance claims. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 10.31 | Forward PE 12.69 | Enterprise Value 128.32B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.31 |
Enterprise Value 128.32B | Price to Sales(TTM) 1.31 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.41 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 21.85 | Shares Outstanding 580.40M | Shares Floating 579.11M |
Shares Outstanding 580.40M | Shares Floating 579.11M | ||
Percent Insiders 0.24 | Percent Institutions 89.87 |
Upturn AI Summary
AI Summarization is directionally correct and might not be accurate.
Summarized information shown could be a few years old and not current.
Fundamental Rating based on AI could be based on old data.
AI-generated summaries may have inaccuracies (hallucinations). Please verify the information before taking action.
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
News (Last Updated: 09/25/2026)
About Progressive Corp
Exchange NYSE | Headquarters Mayfield, OH, United States | ||
IPO Launch date 1986-07-09 | President, CEO & Director Ms. Susan Patricia Griffith | ||
Sector Financial Services | Industry Insurance - Property & Casualty | Full time employees 70053 | Website https://www.progressive.com |
Full time employees 70053 | Website https://www.progressive.com | ||
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
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