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Upturn AI Summary - About
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited(HMY)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for HMY
11/03/2026: HMY (1-star) is currently NOT-A-BUY. Pass it for now.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is a mid-tier international producer focused on gold extraction from assets in South Africa and Papua New Guinea. The company is known for its ability to extend the life of mature deep-level mines through efficient consolidation and operational management. Its primary growth opportunity lies in diversifying into copper and investing in renewable energy to stabilize production costs. However, investors face risks related to gold price volatility, regional labor instability, and the capital-intensive nature of maintaining aging infrastructure. The stock may best suit investors seeking commodity-linked exposure, though they should monitor energy initiatives and labor relations as key performance indicators.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company grows primarily through asset acquisition rather than organic technology-led expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock tends to trend strongly during periods of rising gold prices. |
| Value investor | Mixed fit | Valuation is often tied to volatile commodity price assumptions rather than stable earnings multiples. |
| Dividend investor | Mixed fit | Dividends are inconsistent and strictly dependent on cash flows during favorable commodity cycles. |
| Low-risk investor | Weak fit | High operational leverage and geopolitical exposure make this a high-volatility investment. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | High | Gold price fluctuations directly impact profitability. |
| Valuation risk | Medium / high | Asset valuations are sensitive to long-term commodity price forecasts. |
| Competition risk (resource access) | Medium | Competing for finite mineral resources affects future production pipelines. |
| Business quality | Medium | Operating mature, deep-level mines requires constant capital reinvestment. |
| Dividend income | Medium | Payouts are cyclical and not guaranteed. |
| Execution risk | Medium / high | Operational success depends on labor and energy stability in South Africa. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Choppy
The stock has experienced frequent reversals and pronounced short-term price swings.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -45.15% | Avg. Invested days 25 | Today’s Advisory PASS |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/03/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 9.53B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 5.28 | 1Y Target Price 22.19 |
Price to earnings Ratio 5.28 | 1Y Target Price 22.19 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 3.1M shares | Beta 0.91 | 52 Weeks Range 12.43 - 24.87 | Updated Date 11/03/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 12.43 - 24.87 | Updated Date 11/03/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 5.13% | Basic EPS (TTM) 2.88 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Production (South Africa) | Underground and surface gold mining and processing. | Most revenue comes from digging gold out of the ground in South Africa. |
| International Operations | Open-pit gold mining at Hidden Valley. | Provides geographic diversification outside of South Africa. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Valuation
Trailing PE 5.28 | Forward PE 20.66 | Enterprise Value 9.31B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.1 |
Enterprise Value 9.31B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.1 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 1.56 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 3.27 | Shares Outstanding 627.03M | Shares Floating 544.17M |
Shares Outstanding 627.03M | Shares Floating 544.17M | ||
Percent Insiders - | Percent Institutions 16.21 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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