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Upturn AI Summary - About
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc(KDP)
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for KDP
11/06/2026: KDP (2-star) has a low Upturn Star Rating. Not recommended to BUY.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc is a major player in the North American beverage sector, known for its unique combination of hot coffee systems and a diverse portfolio of cold soft drinks. The company benefits from strong brand recognition, a robust distribution network, and high-margin recurring revenue from its coffee pod business. While the business shows stability, it faces significant risks from high debt levels, increasing competition from beverage giants, and changing consumer health preferences. The stock generally suits income-focused and value-oriented investors who value steady cash flow and defensive exposure. Monitoring the success of recent coffee expansion and international growth initiatives is key for future outlook.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | The company offers moderate growth rather than the high-growth trajectory typically sought by aggressive growth investors. |
| Momentum investor | Mixed fit | Momentum performance is conditional on market trends and positive signals; it is not a high-beta momentum play. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | KDP is often viewed as a stable, cash-generative business that may appeal to value investors seeking defensive quality. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | The company provides a reliable and growing dividend supported by stable cash flows from core beverage assets. |
| Low-risk investor | Strong fit | The defensive nature of the beverage industry makes this a lower-volatility option compared to cyclical sectors. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Low | The stock tends to exhibit lower volatility due to the non-cyclical nature of consumer beverage demand. |
| Valuation risk | Medium | Market pricing can sometimes stretch during periods of flight-to-safety, impacting potential entry points. |
| Competition risk (Soda/Coffee) | High | Intense competition from global giants like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo constantly threatens market share. |
| Business quality | Strong | The company possesses a strong portfolio of entrenched, consumer-favorite brands that provide durable competitive advantages. |
| Dividend income | Medium | While consistent, yields are dependent on continued capital discipline and payout sustainability. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Successful integration of acquisitions and management of supply chains are vital for maintaining margins. |
Price Behavior
Strong Uptrend
The stock has maintained a strong upward price trend across the last three quarters.
Smooth
The stock has moved along a generally orderly path with only modest fluctuations.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit -8.7% | Avg. Invested days 40 | Today’s Advisory Consider higher Upturn Star rating |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  3.0 | Stock Returns Performance  1.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/06/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Large-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 49.85B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 33 | 1Y Target Price 38.03 |
Price to earnings Ratio 33 | 1Y Target Price 38.03 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 15.8M shares | Beta 0.35 | 52 Weeks Range 24.53 - 37.89 | Updated Date 11/06/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 24.53 - 37.89 | Updated Date 11/06/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 2.49% | Basic EPS (TTM) 1.11 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Coffee Systems | Brewing machines and branded K-Cup coffee pods. | Selling coffee hardware and recurring high-margin pod sales. |
| Packaged Beverages | Carbonated soft drinks, juices, and flavored waters. | The classic business of manufacturing and distributing popular drink brands. |
| Beverage Concentrates | Concentrate sales to independent bottlers. | Lower overhead revenue stream by selling the core formula to third-party partners. |
Analyzing Revenue: Products, Geography and Growth
Revenue by Products
Product revenue - Year on Year
Revenue by Geography
Geography revenue - Year on Year
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-03 | When Before Market | Estimate 0.63 | Actual 0.66 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 7.12% | Operating Margin (TTM) 18.82% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 3.62% | Return on Equity (TTM) 6.01% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 33 | Forward PE 14.58 | Enterprise Value 77.78B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.16 |
Enterprise Value 77.78B | Price to Sales(TTM) 2.16 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 3.36 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA 16.21 | Shares Outstanding 1.36B | Shares Floating 1.35B |
Shares Outstanding 1.36B | Shares Floating 1.35B | ||
Percent Insiders 4.71 | Percent Institutions 109.98 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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