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Mercury General Corporation(MCY)
Top performer 
Advisory History & Simulated Performance *
*as per simulation (see disclosures)- ALL
- 1Y
- 1M
- 1W
- BUY Advisory
- SELL Advisory (Profit)
- SELL Advisory (Loss)
- Profit
- Loss
- PASS (Skip)
Stock price based on last close Advisory Performance History (Simulated)
Upturn Advisory & Investor View for MCY
11/05/2026: MCY (4-star) is a SELL. SELL for 1 day. Simulated Profits (-20.83%). Updated daily EoD!
Mercury General Corporation is a established U.S. property and casualty insurance company known for its focus on personal automobile and homeowners coverage. The company's primary strength lies in its disciplined, agent-led distribution model and a strong, long-standing franchise in California. Its main growth opportunity involves improving premium adequacy and expanding household bundling within existing markets. However, the company faces significant risks from its geographic concentration in California, potential regulatory constraints on rates, and the high catastrophe impact of events like wildfires. As a stable, dividend-paying stock with a moderate valuation, it may best suit income-oriented investors who should monitor catastrophe outcomes and regional regulatory developments closely.
How to Read the Upturn Advisory
The Upturn Star Rating and the current BUY, SELL, or PASS advisory are generated by Upturn’s AI advisory engine based on proprietary signal analysis, price behavior, advisory history, and historical signal performance.
Company fundamentals, valuation, risks, and news provide supporting context about the business.
Investor Fit
| Investor style | Fit | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth investor | Mixed fit | Mercury is a mature insurer focused on stability rather than rapid, high-growth expansion. |
| Momentum investor | Strong fit while signal remains positive | The stock has shown significant price momentum following strong earnings beats and improving underwriting results. |
| Value investor | Strong fit | The stock often trades at attractive P/E and P/B ratios relative to peers, making it a potential value play. |
| Dividend investor | Strong fit | A long track record of consistent quarterly dividend payments makes this suitable for income-focused portfolios. |
| Low-risk investor | Mixed fit | While established, the company's concentration in California and exposure to catastrophe risks add layers of volatility. |
Risk Profile
| Risk factor | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Price volatility | Medium | As an insurance stock, MCY is subject to market sentiment regarding interest rates and catastrophe loss updates. |
| Valuation risk | Low | The stock frequently trades at moderate multiples, limiting downside valuation risk compared to high-growth sectors. |
| Competition risk (National Insurance Carriers) | High | Large national insurers with significant scale and advertising capacity pose a constant threat to market share. |
| Business quality | Strong | Mercury has a proven, decades-long history of disciplined underwriting and operational stability. |
| Dividend income | Strong | Consistent payment history provides a reliable income stream for shareholders. |
| Execution risk | Medium | Success depends on maintaining accurate risk pricing and managing regional regulatory hurdles. |
Price Behavior
Rolling Over
The price momentum is slowing down and beginning to turn downward.
Moderately Choppy
The stock has experienced noticeable price swings while retaining some directional structure.
Analysis of Past Performance
Type Stock | Historic Profit 120.05% | Avg. Invested days 67 | Today’s Advisory SELL |
Upturn Advisory Rating  | Upturn Advisory Performance  4.0 | Stock Returns Performance  5.0 |
| Profits based on simulation | Last Close 11/05/2026 |
Upturn Scorecard
Upturn Star Rating 
Company Fundamentals
Financial Health Rating
Growth Momentum Score
Ownership
Top 5 Institutional Investors
Unit Economics (Per $1K Revenue)
Economic Dimensions
Quantitative Style Profile
Style Classification
Quality Focused
Key Highlights
Company Size Mid-Cap Stock | Market Capitalization 4.93B USD | Price to earnings Ratio 7.28 | 1Y Target Price 120 |
Price to earnings Ratio 7.28 | 1Y Target Price 120 | ||
Volume (30-day avg) 321.7K shares | Beta 0.94 | 52 Weeks Range 80.73 - 112.70 | Updated Date 11/05/2026 |
52 Weeks Range 80.73 - 112.70 | Updated Date 11/05/2026 | ||
Dividends yield (FY) 1.43% | Basic EPS (TTM) 11.61 |
How Company Makes Money
| Business area | What it includes | Retail investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Personal Auto and Homeowners Insurance | Collecting premiums for risk coverage and investing the resulting premium float. | The company makes money by charging more in premiums than it pays out in claims and operating expenses, plus the interest earned on money held in reserve. |
| Geographic Operations | Operations in 11 states, with a massive concentration in California. | Performance is highly dependent on California's regulatory environment and disaster-related claim costs. |
Earnings Date
Report Date 2026-11-03 | When After Market | Estimate 3.35 | Actual 3.49 |
Profitability
Profit Margin 10.48% | Operating Margin (TTM) -0.92% |
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (TTM) 5.19% | Return on Equity (TTM) 25.52% |
Valuation
Trailing PE 7.28 | Forward PE 19.76 | Enterprise Value 4.21B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.76 |
Enterprise Value 4.21B | Price to Sales(TTM) 0.76 | ||
Enterprise Value to Revenue 0.69 | Enterprise Value to EBITDA - | Shares Outstanding 55.39M | Shares Floating 26.55M |
Shares Outstanding 55.39M | Shares Floating 26.55M | ||
Percent Insiders 52.03 | Percent Institutions 48.48 |
Financial Metrics
🧭 Investment Snapshot
Total Revenue (Scale)
Total money earned from selling products or services before any costs. It is needed to understand the scale of the business and its ability to generate income.
Net Income (Profit)
Final profit after all expenses, interest, and taxes are deducted. It is needed to determine the overall profitability available to shareholders.
Free Cash Flow (Cash Strength)
Cash remaining after operating activities and capital expenditures, showing cash available for growth. It is needed to evaluate the company’s ability to invest, pay dividends, or reduce debt.
📈 Growth & Strength
Operating Income (Core Profit)
Profit from core operations after deducting all operating expenses. It is needed to measure how efficiently the company runs its primary business activities.
EBITDA (Cash Earnings)
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating operating cash potential. It is needed to compare operating performance across companies without accounting or financing differences.
Gross Profit (Unit Profitability)
Revenue minus cost of revenue, showing profit after direct production costs. It is needed to evaluate core business profitability before overhead expenses.
🛡️ Financial Safety
Cash (Liquidity Buffer)
Total cash and cash equivalents on hand. It is needed to evaluate immediate liquidity and financial flexibility.
Total Debt (Leverage Risk)
Total debt including both short-term and long-term components. It is needed to assess the company’s leverage and financial risk.
Net Working Capital (Short-Term Health)
Current assets minus current liabilities, indicating short-term liquidity strength. It is needed to assess whether the company can meet its short-term obligations.
🧱 Balance Sheet Strength
Stockholder Equity (Net Worth)
Total equity value held by shareholders. It is needed to understand the net worth of the company from the owners’ perspective.
Total Assets (Asset Base)
The full value of everything the company owns, including cash, inventory, equipment, and investments. It is needed to understand the resource base used to generate revenue.
Income Before Tax (Pre-Tax Earnings)
Income before provision for income taxes. It is needed to analyze profitability independent of tax structures.
⚙️ Cost & Drag Factors
Cost of Revenue (Production Cost)
Direct costs required to produce and deliver the products or services sold. It is needed to assess efficiency in production and service delivery.
Total Operating Expenses (Operating Cost)
Indirect costs of running the business such as salaries, marketing, and administration. It is needed to understand how much it costs to sustain ongoing business operations.
Income Tax Expense (Tax Drag)
Amount of taxes paid or payable to the government. It is needed to evaluate the impact of taxation on overall profitability.
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